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Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company

Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional Safety Teams. A Manufacturer’s Perspective. Gerard Guyot Safety Consultant Airbus. Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company. Aviation Safety: Some Perspective. Worldwide:

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Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company

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  1. Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional Safety Teams A Manufacturer’s Perspective Gerard Guyot Safety Consultant Airbus Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company

  2. Aviation Safety: Some Perspective Worldwide: • An airplane is landing approximately every two seconds somewhere in the world • Approximately 53,000 flights per day • More than 3 million people fly each day • In 2006, Over 1.2 billion people flew on over 20 million flights • In 2006, there was 7 fatal accidents

  3. Airline Travel is Extraordinarily Safe 42,643 U.S. Transportation Fatalities – 2003* Source: NTSB Number of Fatalities 767 703 626 622 73 47 Highway Recreational boating and other marine Rail transportation Bicycles General aviation Commercial Airlines* Other commercial aviation *5-Year (ending in 2003) average for commercial Jets, U.S. operations only 09-15-04 PUB-015

  4. … And we are making progress! Hull Loss Accident Rate Western-Built Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1993 - 2005 2.00 5 year running average Hull Loss Accident Rate (per million departures) 1.60 1.20 0.80 Industry/Government Collaborative Efforts 0.40 0.00 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

  5. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety… 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Annual Hull loss accident rate [Accidents per million departures] 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1-19-05 FT-004Wc

  6. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety… 50 32,495 20,042 Airplanes in service 45 40 35 2006 2021 30 25 20 Departures, Millions 15 10 Annual Hull loss accident rate [Accidents per million departures] 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1-19-05 FT-004Wc

  7. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety… 50 32,495 20,042 Airplanes in service 45 40 35 2006 2021 Hull loss accidentsper year 30 Business as usual 25 20 15 Departures per year, Millions 10 Reductions possible with continued Industry effort Annual Hull loss accident rate [Accidents per million departures] 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1-19-05 FT-004Wc

  8. Departures and Flight HoursWorldwide Operations* 1987 through 2006 45 40.3 Flight hours Departures 40 35 Annual departures and flight hours (millions) 30 25 20.0 20 15 10 5 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Year • 487.5 million cumulative departures since 1959 (396.1 million on Boeing airplanes) • 874.4 million cumulative flight hours since 1959 (684.9 million on Boeing airplanes) • 7 manufacturers – 35 significant types (14 Boeing) in service as of 12/31/2006 *Western fleet

  9. Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing, But There are Limits to Growth 32,000 LIMITS TO GROWTH 30000 • Safety/SecurityPerceptions • Traffic Congestion • Environmental Factors 25000 20000 Number of airplanes at years end GROWTH 15000 • Public Confidence • Strong Economies • Peace & Prosperity 10000 5000 0 2015 2002 2005 2010 2020

  10. Because the Aviation System Is Complex,All Parts of Industry Must Work Together 150,000+ flight crew 200+ languages 800+ airlines 200+ countries 1,350+ major airports More than 21,000 airplanes 240,000+ maintenance personnel

  11. Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel • Aviation law • Operations specification • Rules and regulations • Inspectors policy,procedures, and training • Airline policy andprocedures requirements • Safety, health, environmentallaw, and regulations • Navigation facilities/operations • Airport facilities • Departure en route, arrival, approach policy, andprocedures • Air traffic control services • Safety-related analysis Air Safety Governments Manufacturers • Safe airplane design • Safety-enhancing technologydevelopment • Flight and maintenance operations, recommendations,documents, training, andsupport • Maintenance planning • Safety-related analysis • Safety initiatives Operators • Operations policy andprocedures • Airplane/pilot publications • Approved maintenanceprogram • Maintenance, policy, andprocedures • Maintenance publications • Safety program • Training

  12. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006 1800 1643 (67) ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact) FUEL Fuel Related LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision OTHR Other RAMP Ground Handling RE Runway Excursion RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant) TURB Turbulence Encounter USOS Undershoot/Overshoot UNK Unknown or Undetermined WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm No accidents were noted in the following categories: AMAN Abrupt Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air Traffic Management/ Communications, Navigation, Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact) GCOL Ground Collision ICE Icing LALT Low Altitude Operations RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal SEC Security Related For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/ 1655 (0) External fatalities [Total 249] Onboard fatalities [Total 5,149] 1600 1400 1200 Fatalities 1000 800 600 Onboard fatalities 546 (0) External fatalities 400 262 (77) 156 (71) 200 120 (0) 126 (0) 124 (2) 110 (10) 110 (4) 107 (1) 109 (1) 55 (9) 23 (0) 0 (7) 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 LOC-I CFIT SCF- RE MAC LOC-G OTHR UNK RI-VAP F-NI USOS WSTRW ARC FUEL RAMP SCF- TURB NP PP Number of fatal accidents (89 total) 19 20 5 8 2 1 5 2 3 2 3 2 6 2 1 1 7 Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

  13. Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006 Percentage of accidents/fatalities 32% 19% Taxi, load/ unload parked, tow Final Initial Initial Climb Descent approach approach Takeoff climb Landing (flaps up) Cruise 5% 10% 10% Fatal Accidents 11% 8% 22% 13% 11% 10% Q 6% 15% 14% 12% 17% 5% 0% 12% 19% Onboard Fatalities 20% 29% Initial approach fix Final approach fix Exposure* (Percentage of flight time estimated for a 1.5 hour flight) 11% 3% 12% <1% 1% 1% 1% 14% 57% *Percentages do not sum to 100% due to numerical rounding. 2000 100 Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities Fatal accidents 80 Onboard fatalities 1500 Onboard fatalities Fatalities Fatal accidents 60 967 1000 858 788 716 40 617 625 20 500 299 20 275 10 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 4 0 0 Taxi, load/ unload parked, tow Takeoff Initial Climb Cruise Descent Initial Final Landing climb approach approach 21 2006 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2007

  14. Fatal Accidents - Asia (including China) Airline Domicile - 1997 Through 2006 Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category 1200 External fatalities [Total 64] Onboard fatalities [Total 1,815] ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact) LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight RE Runway Excursion SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant) No accidents were noted in the following categories: AMAN Abrupt Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air Traffic Management/ Communications, Navigation, Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact) FUEL Fuel Related GCOL Ground Collision ICE Icing LALT Low Altitude Operations LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision OTHR Other RAMP Ground Handling RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person SEC Security Related TURB Turbulence Encounter USOS Undershoot/Overshoot UNK Unknown or Undetermined WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/ 980 1000 800 Onboard fatalities Fatalities External fatalities 600 462(61) 400 225 200 108 38(3) 1 1 0 CFIT LOC-I SCF- RE ARC FIRE-NI SCF- NP PP Number of Fatal Accidents (22) 8 6 1 2 3 1 1 Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

  15. Asia (Including China) Airline Domicile Fatal Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category CFIT LOC-I ARC RE SCF-NP F-NI SCF-PP 8 6 3 2 1 1 1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact) LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight RE Runway Excursion SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant) No accidents were noted with the following principal categories: AMAN Abrupt Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air Traffic Management/Communications, Navigation, Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact) FUEL Fuel Related GCOL Ground Collision ICE Icing LALT Low Altitude Operations LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision OTHR Other RAMP Ground Handling RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person SEC Security Related TURB Turbulence Encounter USOS Undershoot/Overshoot UNK Unknown or Undetermined WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/ Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST

  16. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006 C.I.S. 4.9 Europe 0.7 ESSI China 0.3 United States and Canada 0.5 CAST Middle East 3.0 Asia 1.9 (Excluding China) COSCAPS Africa 12.0 PAAST ASET Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Oceania 0.0 World 1.16 Accidents per million departures

  17. Possible Reasons for Regional Accident Rate Differences • Infrastructure • Air traffic control • Navigation aids • Airport equipment • Weather services • Airline operations • Procedures • Training • Maintenance • Dispatch • Regulatory oversight • Aviation law • Regulation • Personnel qualifications • Resource constraints

  18. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF IATA AAPA ATAC APFA • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO • EASA • TCC • NATCA • NTSB Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) *Representing P&W and RR

  19. Worldwide Risk Analysis • CAST plan developed to reduce fatality risk in U.S. Part 121 operations • Question was raised by ICAO, PAAST and ESSI as to effectiveness of CAST plan worldwide • Worldwide fatal accident data from 1987 – 2001 analyzed using the CAST selection tool • 331 accidents, which had sufficient data, were analyzed and scored

  20. Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location RegionAttributed to CFIT (1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal Accidents) 100 90 80 70 Portion of Regional Fatality Risk 60 50 40 30 20 10 Asia Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America

  21. Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region Attributed to CFIT That Can be Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted (2007 Implementation Values) 1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal and Hull Loss Accidents 70 Risk Eliminated 60 Risk Remaining 50 Portion of Regional Fatality Risk (Percent) 40 30 20 10 0 Asia Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean World North America

  22. Conclusion • Commercial air travel is extraordinarily safe, but improvements must continue to be made • Not all areas or environments of the world are the same — we need to use facts, data, and continuing insight to focus appropriate improvement efforts • Improving safety in Asia is a shared responsibility of the manufacturers, the airline operators, and Government/State authorities, but it will take willingness and commitment to make it happen • COSCAP regional safety teams and similar safety organizations can help to reduce accident risk • Considerations should be given to implementing appropriate CAST Safety Enhancements to reduce fatality risk • Airbus and Boeing are committed to help enhance aviation safety • Rapid growth of commercial aviation in ASIA presents significant challenges

  23. Next Steps • Measure implementation levels and effectiveness of processes and procedures already put in place (e.g. adopted CAST Safety Enhancements) • Integrate appropriate elements of the Global Aviation Safety Roadmap • Identify gaps that exist and form plans to address • Establish an information-sharing process to better gauge effectiveness of enhancements and identify emerging threats

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