Regional Sustainability Approaches

1. Regional Sustainability Approaches 2007 Region 4 EPA/DOD/STATESEnvironmental Conference19-21 June 07Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE

2. Presentation Purpose • Context & need for regional approaches • Central challenge to such approaches • Sustainability indicators • Strategic Sustainability Assessment

3. “A sustainable Army simultaneously meets mission requirements worldwide, safeguards human health, improves quality of life, and enhances the natural environment.” Army Strategy for the Environment

4. Resource Constraints Pressures are accelerating Impacts Drivers

5. Major Trends • Population Growth • Urbanization • Consumption • Industrialization • Changes in Land Use and Land Cover • Globalization

6. Potential Impacts to Environment • Global climate change • Declining ecosystem services • Pollution: air, fresh water, seas, land • Increase in invasive species • Loss of biodiversity • Resource depletion

7. Potential Impacts to Community • Increased costs for needed goods and services • Reduced access to basic goods and services • Economic restructuring • Poor health, disease • Loss of community and family stability • Income disparity, Poverty

8. Potential Impacts to Mission • Increased costs for needed goods and services • Restrictions on testing and training • Infrastructure shortfalls • Increasing and changing mission requirements

9. How do we know if a “region” is sustainable? • Define the “region” • Identify sustainability indicators • Define end-state • Project current trends • Look for gaps

10. Challenges • Defining Boundaries • Focus on Available Data • Regional Identity • Regional Capabilities for Action • Not just ‘Vital Signs’ • Prioritize

11. Challenges Disconnect between the scale of the problems and the ability to analyze trends (or identify interventions, or define stakeholders, or enable action…) Boundaries rarely align between the problem and the institutions capable of action.

12. Method for Identifying Regional Indicators • Create initial list of topic areas • Use Army references • Review lists of indicators • Literature and on-line sources • Create database to capture indicators • Sort by ‘triple bottom line’ • Key terms • Compare database to initial list

13. Central Florida http://www.myregion.org/

14. Southern California Association of Governments http://www.scag.ca.gov/publications/index.htm

15. Cascadia Region http://www.sightline.org/research/cascadia_scorecard/

16. Sierra Nevada Wealth Index http://www.sbcouncil.org/

17. Results

18. National most cited indicator key terms: Social Economic Regional most cited indicator key terms: Social Economic Results • Army most cited indicator key terms: • Planning • Training • Procurement • Local most cited indicator key terms: • Land Use • Transportation

19. Proposed Indicators • Land Use • Land conversion rates • Military training and testing capabilities • Effectiveness of land use planning mechanisms • Transportation • Roadway congestion, highway accident statistics • Airport capability, airport congestion • Annual amount of fossil fuel consumed for transportation per household

20. Proposed Indicators • Ecosystem Health • Number of species endangered or at risk • Number of impaired waterways • Water quality index • Acres of protected critical habitat/habitat fragmentation • Acres of wetlands lost per year • Soil erosion rates/soil productivity rates

21. Proposed Indicators • Water Resources • Ratio of surface and/or groundwater supply to water withdrawal • Ratio of impervious surfaces to land area • Per capita water use • Wastewater treatment – reported effluent flows • Air Quality • Air quality index • Major emission sources, toxic substance releases

22. Proposed Indicators • Economic Conditions • DOD contribution to local employment • Percent of income earners earning below the Living Wage • Employment diversity • Poverty rates • Unemployment rate • Energy – Use and Availability • Energy consumption per capita • Sources: ratio of renewable to non-renewable

23. Proposed Indicators • Quality of Life • Number of households with a housing problem (cost burden and availability) • Educational attainment • Health care availability • Commute times • Crime rates • Migration patterns • Waste Generation • Solid waste disposal per capita • Material recovery rates • Tons of hazardous waste generated

24. Challenges • Are we measuring the right things? Natural Resources = Ecosystem Services

25. Common Theme: Availability of Natural Resources “This combination of more goods for more people on the same resource base will prove detrimental to the environment…” (PCSD) “The need for fertile soil, clean and abundant water, healthy air, diverse wildlife, food, fuel and fiber will intensify…” (PCSD) “…mission accomplishment today and in the future requires land, water and air resources to train, a healthy environment in which to live, and the support of local communities.” (US Army, 2004).

26. Ecosystem Services Commodities Amenities (Table drawn from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)

27. Natural Resource Scarcity • Scarcity = economic term for when demand exceeds supply • Economists find evidence of scarcity when price goes up • Natural commodity “scarcity” debated • Technological advances and substitutions moderate price, so “scarcity” not proven

28. Focus Shifting from Commodities to Amenities • “the effects of current economic activity on the basic environmental life support systems seem more critical than the availability of particular natural resource commodities” • (Krautkraemer, 2005)

29. National Level Indicators • Indicator’s called for but don’t yet exist: • Natural ecosystem services • Condition of plant and animal communities • Fragmentation and landscape pattern “There is substantial scientific uncertainty about ecosystem services – not about whether they exist or whether they are important to society – but about how to measure them, which ones to track, and the like.” - Heinz Report, p.61

30. Natural Resource Scarcityand PPP Installations

31. What to measure? • Increasing competition for natural resources impacting all elements of the Army Triple Bottom Line • Indication of impacts to PPP installations today • Natural resource amenities (ecosystem services) are essential to continued provision of commodities • Ecosystem services rarely identified, measured or tracked until they have already become ‘scarce’

32. What to measure? Constanza and Folke, 1997, p. 59

33. What is the SSA? • Provides Army leadership with analysis of the “state of the future” • Suggests strategies to close the gap between forecasts and desired futures • Bridges long-term strategic vision with short-term initiatives to meet objectives • Establishes dialogue with Army leaders, partners and stakeholders

34. SSA Operating Principles • Employ “spiral development” concept • Take a regional perspective • Build on existing data and tools • Leverage, leverage, leverage…

35. Fall Line Regional Pilot • Apply concepts to actual region • Assemble data, apply models • Forecast possible future outcomes • Engage stakeholders

36. The Concept Preferred Future State Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions taken along the way Current State Current-Trend

37. Sandhills Ecoregion Fall Line Region Populated Places Federal Lands Installation State County Regional Sustainability Assessment:Fall Line Pilot

38. Methodology • Define Sustainability Objectives • Plan Course of Action • Multii-Criteria Analysis of interventions • Describe Present System • Natural Landscape • Land Use • Demography • Transportation/Infrastructure • Economics • Sustainability Vulnerability • Determine Strategic Interventions • Land Use Policy • Technology Infusion • Codes and Standards • Market Approaches BACKCAST • Determine Key Forces • Land Use Change • Population Growth • Military Transformation • Economic Growth • Climate Change • Energy Source & Availability FORECAST • Perform Gap Analysis • The objective is to minimize the gap between the predicted and desired future state. • Analyze Impacts and Future Outcomes • Project impact on air quality, water quality, and biodiversity using current models • Quantify the projected impacts • Develop Scenarios • BRAC • Climate Change • Demographic Shifts • Economic Loss • Energy Cost Shifts • Model Alternative Futures • Project expected land use change over 30 years.

39. Regional Analysis

40. Identify Issues and Trends Historical Land Use Change Analysis Sustainability Indicator Analysis

41. … and Key Forces Fort Bragg, NC Fort Jackson, SC Increase in County Population from 1970 to 2000 Fort Gordon, GA Fort Benning, GA

42. 30-year Regional Objectives • Military Mission: • Improve ability to organize, equip, train, & deploy • Water Quantity and Quality: • Ensure water is plentiful and meets standards • Housing Affordability and Availability: • Maintain viable stock of available and affordable housing • Energy: • Supply reliable, secure, and renewable energy • Air Quality: • Meet ambient standards year-round • Education: • School agencies meet required space objectives • Biodiversity: • Increase biodiversity and species habitat Draft

43. Develop Scenarios & Model Alternative Futures • Forecast expected land use change over 30 years based on factors that influence population growth: • Historic Population Change • Base and high growth rates • Impact of BRAC plus-ups • Economics • Impact of population change on economic sectors • Socio-Economic Dynamics--Three Sub-Regions • Benning/Columbus • Jackson/Columbia • Bragg/Fayetteville

44. Future Scenarios Forecast expected future in 30 years under different scenarios Business-as-Usual Population Shifts/ Military Transformations Climate Change

45. Perform Gap Analysis 2030 2000 + 500,000 population + 200,000 households + 260 million sq. ft. of commercial/industrial - 19,000 acres of agriculture - 34,000 acres of forest

46. Water Use Gap Analysis Fort Bragg Sub-region Gap = +250 million gallons per day

47. Conclusions • Region must be seen as a functional unit - more than an aggregation of parts • Sustainability goals change with spatial scale • Define and involve regional stakeholders • Iterative and on-going process • Make sure we are asking the right questions

48. Questions? Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE keysare@ctc.com Karen Baker, Army Environmental Policy InstituteElisabeth Jenicek, USACE Construction Engineering Research Lab

49. Back up slides

50. Potential Courses of Action • Expand the DOD Natural Infrastructure concept to the regions containing Army installations • Support national ecosystem indicator development and reporting • Conduct additional research • Identify important natural amenities • Track current status • Project future needs