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Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning

Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning. Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Collaboration August 7, 2008. Outline. Current Drought Situation Medium Range and Seasonal Forecasts Historical Perspective

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Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning

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  1. Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Collaboration August 7, 2008

  2. Outline • Current Drought Situation • Medium Range and Seasonal Forecasts • Historical Perspective • Climate Change Dust Event Honda Proving Center June 4 2008 Cantil CA

  3. Water Year Precipitation http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ High Plains Regional Climate Center http://www.calclim.dri.edu/anommaps.html California Climate Data Archive

  4. Wet Winter…Dry Spring http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/global_precip_accum.shtml

  5. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor

  6. Western Snowpack 2008 vs 2007 http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snowcourse/snow_map.html

  7. Western Streamflow Forecasts http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/sssf.pl

  8. California Drought Summary(from Dep’t of Water Resources Executive Summary) • Water Year precipitation = 85% of average • Runoff = 60% of average • Reservoirs = 75% of average • For Northern Sierra, March-June = driest since records began in 1921 (3.4 in) http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/EXECSUM

  9. Two Looks at the Current Drought: How Bad? Multimodel Soil Moisture Percentiles (83 years of data) Aug. 3, 2008 Palmer Hydro Drought Index Arguably, the 4th “worst” drought since 1900! http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/state-reg-moisture-status.html

  10. Historical Drought: River Runoff since 1900 http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/pdffiles/DroughtReport2008.pdf

  11. The Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

  12. Web Resources for Drought and Forecasts • Climate Prediction Center for Medium and Long Range Forecasts: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov • National Integrated Drought Informaton System for the new drought portal: www.drought.gov • California Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/ • California Climate Tracker: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/monitor/cal-mon/index.html NIDIS CPC Drought Impact Reporter droughtreporter.unl.edu

  13. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Status: Neutral Thru Aug 3, 2008 La Nina last winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

  14. El Nino and La Nina Winter (Jan-Mar) Precipitation El Nino Frequency of occurrence La Nina

  15. Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook A majority of ENSO forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions through Northern Hemisphere spring 2009. Figureprovided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 July 2008).

  16. 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Rainfall http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

  17. CPC Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts SON ASO OND NDJ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

  18. CPC Winter Outlook DJF JFM

  19. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtmlhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml Experimental University of Washington Forecasts Current Runoff Forecast for Oct. 26, 2008 (Based on historical data) Tendency for improvement based on this experimental forecast. Improvement

  20. Palmer Drought Probabilities to October 2008 Courtesy R. Tinker, CPC

  21. Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) Statistics for California Climate Divisions Potential March 2009 Conditions Based on July 2008 Conditions & July-March Changes Following Past July’s with Similar Conditions Good odds for (Palmer) drought ending coastal areas next winter

  22. CFS* Model Winter Forecast Probability of Anomalous Precipitation (as of Aug. 5) Bottom line: History suggests significant relief unlikely before December, and forecasts for next winter are ambivalent, but some dynamic models are tilting dry. Tilt toward below normal in CA and the SW *Coupled (or Climate) Forecast System http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.shtml

  23. Climate Model Forecasts:Precipitation California Climate Change Center http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/cat2008_peak.html Precipitation forecast uncertain for next few decades

  24. California Climate Model Forecasts: Temperature Temperatures should keep going up

  25. Projected Annual Runoff 2041-2060 Less runoff for California and the Southwest

  26. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)

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