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A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport 低碳交通的长期政策框架. Gena Gibson – senior consultant. Policy options Reduce the GHG intensity of fuels Tighten car CO 2 emission standards Introduce CO 2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles Increase fuel taxes “Polluter pays”
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A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport 低碳交通的长期政策框架 Gena Gibson – senior consultant
Policy options • Reduce the GHG intensity of fuels • Tighten car CO2 emission standards • Introduce CO2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles • Increase fuel taxes • “Polluter pays” • Teach efficient driving techniques • Reduce speed limits • Spatial planning measures Cutting transport emissions in Europe欧洲减排政策 A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport 低碳交通的长期政策框架 具体政策 • 降低燃料对温室气体的排放 • 提高汽车尾气二氧化碳排放标准 • 对货车及重型车辆推广二氧化碳排放额目标 • 提高燃料税额 • “污染责任承包” • 培训减排驾驶技巧 • 降低公路限速 • 有效计划空间利用
Ricardo-AEA Modelling 减排方法 Policy scenario Vehicle technologies 车辆技术 • Engine technology • Non-engine technology • Electric and hybrid technology • Biofuels • Hydrogen fuel cells • 引擎技术 • 非引擎技术 • 电力及混动技术 • 生物燃料 • 氢气燃料电池 SULTAN scenario analysis tool Transport modes (7 passenger, 6 freight) All major modes of transport covered Powertrain technologies All major current and future options for vehicle drivetrains Energy carriers / fuels Each powertrain technology can use up to 3 Behavioural & operational 日常运作 • 有效计划基础设施与空间 • 智能化交通系统 • 速度与车流管理 • 向低排放车辆转型 • Infrastructure & spatial planning • Intelligent transport systems • Speed & traffic management • Shift to more efficient vehicles GHG emissions Co-benefits Costs
Results from scenario analysis实际案例分析 百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体 没有政策控制的二氧化碳总排放
Results from scenario analysis实际案例分析 百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体 Reduction of fuel GHG 减少燃料产生的温室气体 Vehicle efficiency 减少车辆产生的温室气体 Demand efficiency 排放限额交易利益驱使 (有效需求)
Results from scenario analysis实际案例分析 Weaker/stronger vehicle efficiency standards could mean under/over achieving targets by up to 100 MtCO2
Marginal abatement cost curves边际减排成本线 Cost per ton CO2 reduction 减少每吨二氧化碳的成本 High cost 高成本 Low cost 低成本 0 Negative cost 负成本 Annual CO2reduction 年度二氧化碳减排 • Analyse costs and emission reductions of different packages of measures • Analyse interaction between different options • Prioritize options in order of cost effectiveness • 分析不同政策的减排量与相关成本 • 分析不同政策之间的相互联系 • 根据性价比排列政策效率
UK road transport英国道路交通 生物燃料 电动车辆 混合动力 车辆 Used to develop UK’s Climate Change Act 英国《气候变化法案》已实施减排措施
Gena Gibson Senior Consultant – Sustainable Transport +44 (0)1235 753526 Gena.Gibson@ricardo-aea.com www.ricardo-aea.com