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CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?

CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?. A Cost Analysis of Fossil, Nuclear, & Renewable Energy Options and how they can evolve in the 21 st Century. Predictions of Doom merely point out avoidable futures. Brendan McNamara, Leabrook Computing,2006 MIT January 2007

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CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?

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  1. CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEATGLOBAL WARMING? A Cost Analysis of Fossil, Nuclear, & Renewable Energy Options and how they can evolve in the 21st Century. Predictions of Doom merely point out avoidable futures. Brendan McNamara, Leabrook Computing,2006 MIT January 2007 UKAEA Culham March 2007 brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  2. SUMMARY Motivated by UK Energy Review of 2006. Fair comparison basis of all costs for Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Wind, & Solar 3 Cost Comparisons: Costs for kW-hours, Power Stations, and 50 year Power Systems HOMEWORK Examine Technical Solutions for problems of each option. Discuss Local, National, and International actions to beat Global Warming. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  3. CARBON DIOXIDE Atmosphere 2800 Gt Ocean 143,000 Gt Absorbs 8.5 Gt/yr Land 9170 Gt Absorbs 3.8 Gt/yr Fossil Fuels Emit 24 Gt/yr FOSSIL RESERVES Oil 542 Gt Gas 347 Gt Coal 2454 Gt brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  4. UK ENERGY REVIEW 2006 “CANYON HORIZON” WITH 3 MISSING MATTERS • NO NEW TECHNOLOGIES • PEAK OIL IGNORED • IMPACT OF POVERTY ON ENERGY SECURITY UNMENTIONED Note:Australian Review, Nov. 2006 is very similar. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  5. PEAK OIL & GAS • ASPO predictions. • Pre-2005 is jagged. Economy follows. • US DoE: Massive mitigation needed 20 yrs before peak. • We MUST avoid resource wars!! brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  6. CO2 SCENARIOS • Population 8Bn • A1F1: Business as usual  Meltdown • B1: Service & IT economy. Low technology. • A1T: Technolgy  growth with equity. • Peak Oil, War, Poverty ignored. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  7. YOUR ENERGY BILLS English home uses ~3500kWh per year at 8.5 p/kWh & ~30,000kWh of Gas Central Heating at 2.4 p/kWh Annual Cost ~ £1021 ( x 1.85 in US $) EU Car: 10,000m @ 30 mph & 30mpg Uses 30,000 kWh for £1200 brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  8. COSTS I: 8 ENERGY SYSTEMSpence/kWh (RAE) brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  9. PV SOLAR ROOFTOP M.P. Peter Hain, ‘Doing his bit.’ Sunshine in Oxford & Mallorca Panels: £4k – £6k /kWp UK Annual kWh : 1004 kWh/kWp Service Life : 20 years Solar Electricity : 19-30p/kWh SHELL SOLAR brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  10. ROOFTOP WINDMILL Windmill: £1874 for 1 kWp UK Annual kWh : 1000 kWh = 1 MWh Service Life : 10 years Windmill Electricity is 18.7 p/kWh brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  11. WELSH WINDMILLS brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  12. WELSH WINDMILL SITE • Windmill farms occupy far more land than just their windmill footprints. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  13. A 632MW WINDMILL FARM • ENERGY ASSESSMENT OF TAN 8 WIND ENERGY STRATEGIC SEARCH AREAS for Welsh Development Agency • 316 x 80m high Windmills at 2MW each. • 35% duty factor? Output is spiky & intermittent, average 221 MW. • Roads, services, forest clearance. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  14. DANISH WIND FARMS • 5240 windmills • 3.1 GWe peak • 80% Exported to Norway. • Norway uses 98% Hydro • No CO2 displaced brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  15. COAL & GAS GAS: Depends on the price of gas. GAS power was cheap in 2003. Now it is more expensive than Coal. COAL: The dirtiest fuel. Neither should be built without CO2 WASTE DISPOSAL. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  16. CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – CCS Costs, 2006 Supercritical boilers make Coal up to 50% efficient. Capture equipment for ALL emissions (SO2, NO, CO2 …) is expensive. Pipelines in densely populated UK are the most expensive. CO2 burial in DISTANT MARINE oilfields is the most costly. IS CCS TOO COSTLY FOR THE UK? brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  17. BP PETERHEAD CCS • Global annual Government support for CCS is ~£100M brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  18. CCS + EOR in BOURNEMOUTH BAY BP Wytch Farm 1 Gb Oilfield In Depletion. Closes in 2015 without some Extended Oil Recovery 3GW Coal Station with CCS Pumps CO2 to recover 3 Barrels oil per tonne. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  19. CCS TOO LATE? D.Hawkins, NRDC, 2006 This reflects current policy and is not inevitable brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  20. - LIQUID FUELS -MORE VALUABLE THAN ELECTRICITY? Coal-to-Diesel 1 tonne Coal Syngas Fischer-Tropf  2 Barrels Diesel + 2.7 tonnes CO2 Montana/Wyoming $35/barrel Australia + CCS $50/barrel Nuclear Process Heat converts all Coal to Diesel. (Forsberg, ORNL) Opencast Coal Mine in Transvaal brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  21. FRENCH EPR REACTOR PROBLEM: SPENT FUEL TREATED AS WASTE brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  22. PWR FUEL 4.5% 235U 95.5% 238U SPENT FUEL 1.1% 235U 92.0% 238U 0.12% Acts. 1.3% Pu 5.5% ASH ‘SPENT FUEL’ IS STILL FUEL SPENT FUEL IS 94.5% FUEL. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  23. MILLION YEAR TRISO FUEL Contains all fission Products for 1 million years Any Fuel: U, Pu, Actinides enriched to 20% No Pu leakage to contaminate structures  No long lived ILW brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  24. DEEP BURN GT-MHR General Atomics: Inflammable – No Meltdown – Burns U, Pu, Actinide Waste – High Temperature (900 C)  50% Thermal Efficiency – No Pu leakage – 300 year ILW. Weapons Pu Burner in Russia GA, Framatome, Minatom, Toshiba brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  25. UK NUCLEAR HISTORY SIZEWELL-A MAGNOX SIZEWELL-B PWR 14 YEAR FILIBUSTER CANCELLED 8 NEW REACTORS  500 Mt CO2 SIZEWELL-C FRENCH EPR brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  26. AGR CORE ASSEMBLY MAGNOX RUN ON NATURAL URANIUM. AGRs USE LOW ENRICHMENT – 3.5%. HARD TO MAINTAIN. SIZEWELL PWR – end of the line for UK AGRs. ALL UK NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE CLOSED OR SOLD AT GIVEAWAY PRICES brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  27. COSTS II. For GWe YEARS brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  28. CONSERVATION Vital to slow the decline of oil & gas. Electrify Public Transport Efficient engines, New Fuels, Carpools Enforce efficiency in all appliances, buildings, and industries. Cut waste from your energy budget. Woollen Sweaters, Cold Showers. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  29. COSTS III. UK 10GWe x 50 Years brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  30.  NATURAL 0.7% 235U + ENRICHED 4.5 % DEPLETED 0.3% 235U NUCLEAR FUELS All Thorium, Uranium, Plutonium, Neptunium, & higher Actinides can be transmuted and fissioned. Each tonne yields 1000 MWth-days DT Fusion fuel gives 5000 MWth-days brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  31. DEPLETED URANIUM ENERGY VALUE $1.5 Bn EACH brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  32. Uranium: Assured, Expected, Speculative N.A FSU Aus Africa Rest 14 12 10 4.476 8 U3O8 Mtonnes 2.6 6 1.178 4 0.5826 0.18 0.1044 0.914 1.833 0.242 2 0.615 2.559 0.4746 2.04 0.219 0.5643 0.0996 0.1044 0.2102 0.42 0 0.251 RAR EAR-I EAR-2 SPEC Decreasing Confidence 20 Mt URANIUM: IAEA RED BOOK 750 PWRs WILL USE ALL THIS URANIUM brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  33. 6 URANIUM RESOURCE MODELS • W. Schneider, LANL: All 6 models assume supply driven by price. • WNA (SC-O) gives S ~ P 3.35 Over 1000x DANESS model at $250/kg. • Gen IV FCCG-E model allows $200/kg for seawater extraction at 1t per billion tonnes water. • Conclusion: All guesswork with too little data. Must have exploration. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  34. FAST BREEDER REACTORS • High power density ~100MW/m3 . Fast neutrons • Breeds 15% more Pu then U-235 burned. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  35. MOLTEN SALT THORIUM BREEDER 232Th + n 233Pa + b- + g233U + b- brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  36. A US NUCLEAR PLAN brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  37. NUCLEAR FUEL STOCKPILES • The UK will have 106,000 tonnes of Depleted Uranium in stock by 2020 • This is enough to meet all current UK electricity & transport need for 600 years. • Over the next 50 years the Nuclear Powered countries may capture all the mineable Uranium on the planet. • This is enough to run 10,000 reactors for 1000 years. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  38. UK Committee on Radioactive Waste Management • Propose geological storage for all spent fuel, depleted Uranium, and ILW. • WRONG • Should build Nuclear Fuel Vaults good for 1000 years. • Should build Advanced Fuel Cycle & TRISO reprocessing plants. • Should reserve all 300 year ‘waste’ of valuable metals. • Should put the small amounts of ash and long lived waste in deep disposal. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  39. COMPUTERISED OPERATIONS WIRELESS INSTRUMENTATION, RADIATION MONITORING GPS & ID TAGS ON ALL NUCLEAR MATERIALS DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING, REAL TIME SYSTEMS, HAND HELD MAINTENANCE MONITORS FLY-BY-WIRE PLANT CONTROL IAEA REMOTE CONTROL & MONITORING SATELLITE NETWORKING, COMPLETE SURVEILLANCE STRONG ENCRYPTION - PERSONNEL – THE MOST DANGEROUS COMPONENTS BIOMETRICS, CCTV, LOCATION TRACKING LAYERED ACCESS CONTROL, ACTIVE SECURITY SAFETY TECHNOLOGY brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  40. JET – FUSION BREAKEVEN World’s most successful Fusion machine Programme lost 10 years to politics. JET Completed thanks to the Bader-Meinhof gang Proved Fusion Physics with global inputs . brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  41. ITER – A 40 YEAR EXPERIMENT • ITER: International Tokamak delays: 15 yrs to design • + 10 to build • +10 to run • = 35 yrs. • Can this be ACCELERATED? • No Meltdowns • No bomb materials • No long lived waste brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  42. CONTRIVED ‘MARKETS’, EMISSIONS TRADING& CARBON TAXES EuroTS: Misguided social engineering UK company paid China £400M to capture refrigerant waste. Carbon Abatement Certs. Sold at £500M to run UK Coal stations. ETS == Cash Capture & Storage Carbon Taxes are just government revenue. Not Energy Neutral. Market Forces are about maximum profit, not minimum pollution. brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  43. ENERGY R&D&D Energy Research funding in the US & EU fell by 90% in the 1980s. UK Stern Economic Review of Climate Change (2006) suggests Energy R&D should now be doubled Society needs Energy. Utilities are businesses. Society must pay for Energy R&D&D brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  44. 3 ENERGY TREATIES OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL –ASPO FOSSIL CARBON & CCS TREATY – Kyoto II NUCLEAR ENERGY AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION TREATY – ‘NEWPT, RUN BY IAEA brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  45. UNILATERAL ACTION POLICY DEMONSTRATIONS CALIFORNIA: First on Vehicle Emissions CALIFORNIA: No long term contracts with polluting electricity vendors - 2006 CONGESTION CHARGING - London CARPOOLS – Big Employers, Schools TOLL ROADS – Free to low emission vehicles. 100X MOTORWAY BUSES (Monbiot: ‘Heat’) brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  46. LOCAL INITIATIVES LIFESTYLE CHANGES COVER CARPARKS for Sunday Markets of local and State products. HOME DELIVERY Same day service at all shopping centres with improved bus services FREE PARKING for diesel & Low emissions vehicles & local Carpools. Adjust fees to maintain revenues. DEVELOPMENT NO NEW COMMUTER DEVELOPMENTS – must be self sufficient. 50% HOUSING TAX REDUCTIONS for Passivhaus homes. SELECT LOCAL WINDMILL FARM SITES SELECT LOCAL NUCLEAR PARK SITES brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  47. CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY WINNING TECHNOLOGIES BASE LOAD • COAL with CCS 100-200 years • NUCLEAR 1000-3000 years • FUSION Indefinite INTERMITTENT • WIND Indefinite • SOLAR Indefinite TRANSPORT • ELECTRIC, BIOFUELS,H2 Indefinite brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  48. WE CAN WIN THIS ONE But we are on our own 5 yard line On fourth down Our best players are on the bench And Cheerleaders for Conservation are only a pretty distraction. The defense has fielded their heaviest political & corporate players So we must pull out all the stops Cover all the bases And go for the long bomb. Go Team! brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  49. GET IT RIGHT FOR THEM! Rich English girl, Zoe(2) On the back of a $3/day porter mountaineering in Nepal. THANK YOU brendan@leabrook.co.uk

  50. REFERENCES ASPO. Association for the Study of Peak Oil. www.peakoil.net BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006 C. J. Campbell. ‘Oil Crisis’. Multi-Science Publishing, 2005. The definitive work on Peak Oil. CORWM: Committee on Radioactive Waste Management. ‘Managing Our Radioactive Waste Safely’, August 2006. www.corwm.or.uk Deutch, D., Moniz, A. “The Nuclear Option”, Scientific American 2006. Special Issue on ‘Energy’s Future: Beyond Carbon’ DTI Energy Challenge. www.dti.gov.uk C. W. Forsberg, “Assessment of Nuclear-Hydrogen Synergies with Renewable Energy Systems and Coal Liquefaction Processes“, ORNL/TM-2006/114, Oak Ridge Natl. Laboratory. E. Lahoda, C.W. Forsberg, D. McGloghlin. “A Low-Greenhouse-Impact Hydrogen-based Fuels Future” AICE, San Francisco,Nov. 2006. Hawkins, D., Natural Resources Defense Council, New York. www.nrdc.org. G8-IEA-CSLF Workshop, August 2006, San Francisco IAEA General Conf., 2006. “New Framework for the Utilization of Nuclear Energy in the 21st Century: Assurances of Supply and Non-Proliferation” John Houghton. ‘Global Warming’. Cambridge Press, 2004. Definitive briefing on the science of global warming. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) ‘Keeping the Lights On: Nuclear, Renewables, and Climate Change’ April 2006. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ‘Special report on Carbon Capture and Storage’, 2006. Christian N. Jardine,1 Gavin J. Conibeer2 and Kevin Lane. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 5, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3UB. ‘PV-COMPARE: Direct Comparison of Eleven PV Technologies at Two Locations in Northern and Southern Europe’ Brendan McNamara. ‘ Nuclear Power – Facing Opposition’, June, 2005. Exposes the exaggerations used by Storm van Leeuwen & Smith on CO2 emissions from Nuclear Power. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear. Brendan McNamara. ‘ Nuclear Power in the UK 21st. Century Energy Mix’, Submitted to the UK DTI Energy Review 2006. Shows how Deep Burn has been missed by the Review process. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear. Brendan McNamara. ‘ Uranium: What is to be done?, Submitted to the UK DTI Energy Review 2006. Shows how Uranium supplies can be reprocessed to supply 10,000 1 GWe reactors for 1000 years. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear. MIT: ‘The Future of Nuclear Power’, 2003 Nirex. ‘The Implications of Declaring UK Uranium Stockpiles as Waste’, 2002. Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE). ‘The Cost of Generating Electricity’, 2004. Hugh Sharman, http://ior.rml.co.uk/issue4/co2/inco2/summary.htm) Hugh Sharman. ‘Why UK Wind Power should not exceed 10GW’, Proc. Inst. Civil Eng., pp 161-169, 2006. A.Tjernshaugen, Centre for International Climate & Environmental Research – Oslo. ’Political commitment to CCS in Europe and North America:Evidence from government RD&D budgets’, May 2006 brendan@leabrook.co.uk

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