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Recent developments in container liner shipping

Recent developments in container liner shipping. Frans Waals Editor “DynaLiners” Senior Shipping Consultant. Dynamar Activities. Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring Marine Intelligence Marine Investigation, Vessel Tracking Consultancy Liner, Container, Bulk

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Recent developments in container liner shipping

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  1. Recent developments in container liner shipping Frans Waals Editor “DynaLiners” Senior Shipping Consultant

  2. Dynamar Activities • Credit Risk AssessmentCredit Reports, Constant Monitoring • Marine IntelligenceMarine Investigation, Vessel Tracking • ConsultancyLiner, Container, Bulk • Shipping PublicationsDynaLiners, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports

  3. Trades and liner services

  4. World Container Trade

  5. East West Trades TA E/FE TP TP E/FE

  6. Parallel Trades TA E/FE TP Med/NA TP TP/USEC E/FE Med/FE

  7. North South Trades TA E/FE TP Med/NA TP Mid East TP/USEC ISC E/FE Africa Med/FE Lat.Am Australasia

  8. East West Volumes

  9. FEFC – 1Q 2008 • Westbound, 11.9% growth in the first three months • Eastbound, 3.8% decline in the first two months

  10. US Trades – Export • US exports booming • Especially to Europe, South America, ME and Africa

  11. US Trades - Import • US imports declining, after strong earlier growth • Imports twice as big as exports • Especially from South America

  12. Latin America • Europe average growth, Far East strong growth • Very imbalanced trades

  13. Indian Sub Continent • Strong growth • Europe-ISC – balanced • Far East-ISC – large imbalance

  14. Middle East • Average growth rates • Significant Imbalances

  15. Australia • Average growth rates • Balanced trades • Low volumes

  16. Africa • Europe average growth, Far East fairly high growth • Huge imbalances

  17. East West Service developments • Transpacific • Reduction of number of services • More carriers cooperating through vessel sharing agreements • Long winter season, much temporary capacity reduction • Transatlantic • Reduction of number of services • Cooperating through vsa or slot charter agreements • Some carriers withdrawing completely • Europe/Mediterranean – Far East • Increasing number of services • Use of larger vessels • Introduction of mega container ships (10/15,000 TEU) • Focusing on serving specific areas (e.g. Black Sea) • Introducing more ships per service to save on fuel costs

  18. North South Service developments • Latin America • Overcapacity • Carriers cooperating or withdrawing altogether • Indian Sub Continent • (Too?) many new services launched • Middle East • More direct services • Many feeder services • Australasia • Restructuring - new services started, existing disappearing (Far East trade) • Many vessel sharing agreement • Africa • Dedicated services to north coast from Far East, through transshipment in Med

  19. Ports

  20. Port Handlings

  21. Multi-Millionaires • Shanghai to become world’s largest container port this year?? • Hong Kong stagnating, to be overtaken by Shenzhen soon • Dubai Soaring • Kaohsiung overtaken by other ports

  22. China • All ports reporting strong growth • Even “smaller” port handle multi-million TEU

  23. HLH range • Le Havre and Zeebrugge record strong growth • Other ports growing respectable 10-15% increases

  24. US West Coast • Overall stagnating • Imports stabilizing • Exports booming • Empties significantly reduced

  25. US West Coast - 1Q 2008 • Imports falling • Exports double-digit growth

  26. US East Coast • Still growing • Significant differences by port

  27. First 2008 developments • China • Continues fast growth • Europe • Modest growth (Antwerp and Rotterdam 6%) • USWC • Export booming, import declining, trade imbalance reducing • USEC • No figures available

  28. Carriers and their fleets

  29. Carrier fleet size

  30. Fleet size compared

  31. Consolidation

  32. Total annual liftings

  33. Liftings by East West Trade (2006)

  34. Current ships size and order book

  35. Forecasted Fleet Growth Assuming no scrapping!

  36. ULCS (10,000+ TEU)

  37. Freight and costs • Freight • USD falling – some carriers switching to Euro onspecific trades • Revenues increasing, though very trade related • Surcharges • Cost • Fuel costs are rocketing (>USD 500/tonne) • Charter hire increased, but more or less stabilised

  38. THANK YOU!Question?

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