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Investment Outlook

Investment Outlook. Bill Kielczewksi, V.P. 5/3 Securities, Inc. Institutional Investment Group. October, 2011. Fifth Third Securities, Inc. - Background and Qualifications. What is the 5/3 Securities Institutional Investment Group

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Investment Outlook

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  1. Investment Outlook Bill Kielczewksi, V.P. 5/3 Securities, Inc. Institutional Investment Group October, 2011

  2. Fifth Third Securities, Inc. -Background and Qualifications • What is the 5/3 Securities Institutional Investment Group • Broker / Dealer created in 1998 when Fifth Third Bank purchased the Ohio Company – Established 1925 • Make primary and secondary markets in over $10 Billion monthly • Series 7 / 63 registered investment representatives working for the 5/3 Capital Markets Division and housed in our various affiliates • Specialize in fixed-income investments (MMKTs, Bonds, & Structured Notes) • Build customized fixed-income portfolios for commercial clients; investing from overnight out to 30 years • Distribute 5/3’s proprietary investment products (5/3 VRDNs, 5/3 underwritten MBS, 5/3 Corporate Bond participations) • Who are your local contacts • Bill Kielczewski, V.P. Team Lead of MI, IN, Northern OH, PA, 13 years Institutional Investment experience, $1.50 billion in assets under management, The University of Toledo, Ohio 616-653-5008

  3. 5/3 Footprint Overview Traverse City Grand Rapids Detroit Chicago Toledo Cleveland Pittsburgh Columbus Indianapolis Cincinnati Huntington Florence St. Louis Evansville Louisville Lexington Raleigh Nashville Charlotte Raleigh Atlanta Augusta Jacksonville Orlando Tampa Naples Naples • $111 billion assets* • 1,316 banking centers • 2,456 ATMs • 15 affiliates in 12 states • Fifth Third Bank has been dedicated to serving the needs families and businesses for more than 150 years • 7th strongest bank in the world, #1 in the US – according to capital ratios as defined by Bloomberg, June 2011 * As of 6/30/2011

  4. Global View – Focusing on growth & stabilizing the Euro Zone

  5. Global Economy Focus – US and Chinese GDP growth Global GDP = $63.0 trillion Of interest: Direction of US economy – which is still the dominant economic force on the planet and 70% consumer driven. China sustaining its GDP growth. Emerging economies growing 3-9%; developed economies growing 0-2%. Source = GDP data are 2010 numbers from Bloomberg (8/11); emerging market definitions from MSCI

  6. Global Economy Focus – EuroZone bond yields Source = FactSet

  7. Macro, Policy-Driven Markets • Q3 • Washington inability to agree on a debt & deficit framework leads to US debt downgrade by S&P. • European Union inability to agree on financing Greece leads to concerns widening (…Italy is in focus). • Markets focus solely on Europe/Washington, ratcheting volatility up and economic confidence down. • Q4 • European Union (17 nations) continue to struggle for a solution to finance peripheral countries. • Washington debt & deficit framework turned-over to a committee of 12. Plans to be delivered in November and voted on in December. • US economy continuing slowly forward; China exports slowing. • 2012 • US economy will hinge on two issues: i) the extent fiscal restraint from Washington may restrict consumer spending, ii) the potential spillover from Europe via lower exports and tighter financial conditions. • US markets will hinge on: • #1 above • Tone of US elections • Foreigners continuing to finance 40-50% of our Treasury debt issuance.

  8. Macro Summary • Global economy is moving forward, but at an uneven pace and behind inflation rates. • 5-9% in emerging markets, but with inflation concerns around commodity prices • 1-2% in developed markets, but very nervous about potential fiscal policy/debt management. • Event risks remain high - price of crude oil and social tensions around government fiscal policy. • US economic growth is frustratingly slow, but self-sustaining on its own. However… • Washington and the Private Sector are at sharp odds over future economic leadership. • Cash will not commit to be recycled back into the economy as capital. • Continuation of slow economic rebuild = continuation of incremental investment rebuilding. • Watching US consumer spending trends; prices of copper, gold and crude oil. • Risk of recession in next 12-month now likely approaching 50/50. Consumer dependent, and would likely be shallow – unless Europe spins out of control.

  9. USA Inc. – Challenges where progress needs to be made in 2012…

  10. The U.S. Consumer - Spending OK; Sentiment Low Source = FactSet

  11. Lowering the Misery Index Source = FactSet

  12. Normalizing the housing market Source = FactSet

  13. Framework for federal government finances Source = FactSet

  14. Getting the piles of cash off the sidelines Amounts in billions ($) Source = FactSet

  15. USA Inc. Trend Watch in Q4 – The importance of the number 3… • Getting monthly job additions that start with a 3, followed by 5 zeroes. Currently 150k…. • Getting weekly unemployment claims to start with a 3, followed by 5 zeroes. Currently 400k…. • Getting real GDP growth to start with a 3. Currently 2.5%.... • Keeping YoY consumer inflation at or below 3%. Currently 2.9%.... • Keeping gasoline signs to start with a 3. Currently $3.20…. • Getting a 10-year Treasury yield to start with a 3. Currently 1.99%.... • Reaching a credible, bi-partisan framework that would bring the federal budget deficit down to 3% of GDP. Currently 8.5%.... • Over next 12-18 months, getting the Fed Funds Rate back toward 3%. Currently 0 – 0.25%....

  16. Bond Market Trends – Investment Ideas & Analysis

  17. US Bond Market – How did we get here? Source = FactSet

  18. US Bond Market – Where are we going? Source = FactSet

  19. US Bond Market – already assuming the worst? Source = FactSet

  20. 4) Focusing on the Financial Basics – What can we do to increase yield?

  21. Trade the “Spread” – 2 Yr. Treasury vs. 2 Yr. Agency Bond Source = FactSet

  22. Trade the “Spread” – 5 Yr. Treasury vs. Fannie Mae MBS Source = FactSet

  23. Trade the “Spread” – 10 Yr. Treasury vs. 10 Yr. Muni Bonds Source = FactSet

  24. Financial Insights to Remember • When it comes to investing, be unemotional and pragmatic. If this isn't you, hire someone who is. • If you don’t understand an investment holding, sell it and buy something you do understand. • Investing is about allocating capital today to work through business cycles to produce average returns that exceed the inflation rate and build future purchasing power. Sitting in cash is currently producing a negative real yield. • When it comes to investing, everything works some of the time. Be diversified…money market, Government Bonds, Government MBS, Michigan Municipal Bonds. • Constantly look to rebalance your portfolio. Be dynamic…Sell asset classes when their prices are high, buy others when prices are low. • When the asset side of your balance sheet is stuck, work on reducing the liability side. In the end, the two are connected. Look to refinance existing bond deals at all time low rates. • According to the Fed, saving and money market rates are staying below 1% until at least 2013 – so be frustrated or do something about it.

  25. Appendix I – Allowable investments

  26. Appendix I – Allowable investments, cont’d.

  27. Appendix II – U.S. Treasury conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

  28. Appendix II – U.S. Treasury conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, cont’d. If the preferred stock purchase agreement protects senior and subordinated debt securities issued at any time in the future, how can the agreement ever be terminated?Treasury's funding commitment in the agreement would terminate under three events: The funding commitment terminates if the commitment is fully funded by Treasury. If a GSE liquidates its assets, its net worth deficiency is computed at that time and the GSE can call upon the Treasury to fund under its preferred stock purchase agreement. After that final funding, the funding commitment in the agreement would terminate. When a GSE satisfies all of its liabilities, whether at maturity or by making some other provision for payment in full of its obligations, the funding commitment will also terminate. Why is the preferred stock purchase agreement limited to $100 billion? Is that enough to protect against even the worst downside scenario? What happens if losses exceed $100 billion?Treasury deliberately chose a large number to give confidence to the markets. If Treasury has already received $1 billion in senior preferred stock, how can you say that no investment has been made yet?The companies each issued $1 billion in senior preferred stock to Treasury in connection with Treasury's commitment to maintain a positive net worth in the GSE. No taxpayer money was spent to receive this stock. How is it legal for this preferred stock purchase agreement to be valid beyond the December 31, 2009 expiration of Treasury's authority?Treasury received the preferred stock and received warrants for common stock as of Sunday September 7, 2008 and will not need to purchase any additional shares relative to this agreement. No payments by the Treasury will be made under this agreement until and unless necessary to prevent a negative net worth position for either GSE. If the Treasury makes payments under its funding commitment, the liquidation preference of the Treasury shares will increase accordingly .

  29. Appendix II – U.S. Treasury conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, cont’d. What happens to the declared dividends for investors of existing GSE preferred stock?Dividends actually declared by a GSE before the date of the senior preferred stock purchase agreement will be paid on schedule. Can the government exercise its warrants whenever it wants, even if it is disadvantageous to the companies?Yes. Treasury can exercise its warrant for up to 79.9% of the common stock of each GSE on a fully diluted basis at any time during the 20-year life of the warrant. What do the rating agencies think of this agreement?All of the rating agencies have reaffirmed the United States' current rating status .

  30. Disclosures and Disclaimers The opinions expressed herein are those of Fifth Third Bank, Investment Advisors Division, Fifth Third Securities, Inc., and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of the presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Prior to making any financial or investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding, whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Index performance is used throughout this presentation to illustrate historical market trends and performance.  Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees.  An investor is unable to invest in an index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc (FTAM) is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp and an affiliated company with Fifth Third Bank Investment Advisors division. Fifth Third Bancorp provides access to investments and investment services through various subsidiaries. Investments and Investment Services are:

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