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Energy Future and Natural Gas Technologies. Michael J. Economides University of Houston Nov. 17, 2004. The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century. Oil over $50 (It is not just OPEC) Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq China has gone berserk Price may go even higher, soon
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Energy Future and Natural Gas Technologies Michael J. Economides University of Houston Nov. 17, 2004
The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century • Oil over $50 (It is not just OPEC) • Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq • China has gone berserk • Price may go even higher, soon • Natural gas at $10-plus (Over and over again) • Alan Greenspan (“LNG the only solution”)
The New Energy Economy Carbon content: High Medium Low (Zero) • Wood (1800s) • Coal • Oil • Natural Gas • Hydrogen (envisioned) • Increasingly: • Clean • Energy intensive • Technologically sophisticated • Distributed The emerging“hydrogen economy”better characterized as a“fuel cell economy”that will run on natural gas--i.e. a “natural gas economy”
US Energy Flow (Quadrillion BTU) 2003 EIA Annual Energy Review
Energy Use in the United States (2003) • Total 97 Quads (Direct)* • Residential 20% (34%) • Commercial 18% (24%) • Industrial 34% (66%) • Transportation 28% (99.8%)** *Rest is electricity **All oil
Candidate John Kerry on Meet the Press, Sunday, April 18 “I'm going to move the United States of America towards energy independence. I'm going to set a goal, that by the year 2020, 20 percent of our electricity will be produced from alternative and renewable sources.”
Capacity Brought on Line for Electric Power Generation by Fuel Type (1950-2002) Recent years have seen an explosion in new gas fired generation, but little building in other fuels. Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
World Gas Prices Russia $0.80 Europe $3.70 U.S. $5.50 Indonesia $1.20 Middle East $0.60 Venezuela $0.75 Argentina $1.25 Source: American Chemistry Council
U.S. Natural Gas Demand and Supply Sources Tcf per year 60 Japan-sized LNG Natural gas hydrates? 50 Economides and Oligney “twist” demand forecast DOE/EIA demand forecast 40 Arctic Deepwater 30 Canada 20 Shallow Offshore Unconventional 10 Conventional 0 2000 2004 2008 2010 2012 2020
LNG tanker underway Photo Courtesy of BP
Announced June 12, 2001 Announced October 29, 2003 Cheniere LNG Shell LNG Exxon Mobil announced plans to build the nation's largest LNG import terminal for 2 BCF/d from Qatar to land-based locations at either Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass or Mobile, Ala.October 15, 2003
Scenario Replacing Oil Imported for Transportation with Gas Industrial Use
Extravagant Target To replace all imported oil with gas by the year 2024 (15 MMBOPD), there must be 90 BCF/D of additional gas imported (beyond what is expected for power generation)
Modest Target To replace 1/3 of imported oil with gas by the year 2024 (5 MMBOPD), there must be 30 BCF/D of additional gas imported (beyond what is expected for power generation)
Gas-To-Liquids (GTL) • What are they? • A technology which promises to complement LNG in transporting remote natural gas to distant markets in the absence of existing pipelines. • Unlike LNG, which is liquefied gas that is vaporized for use, GTL processes convert the gas into hydrocarbon liquids. • Require sustained $24 oil price
Dual-Mode Vehicle Alternative environmentally friendly, point to point travel at high speed - private mass transit
