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“Know Thyself”. A Search for One’s (Biological) Identity. Overview. Recent favorable trends in Genetic Testing How I embarked on The Search How to find YOUR Biological Parents (or any other relatives) using Genetic Testing A Sample “Case” A Blow-by-blow Walkthrough of the “Weiss Case”
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“Know Thyself” A Search for One’s (Biological) Identity
Overview • Recent favorable trends in Genetic Testing • How I embarked on The Search • How to find YOUR Biological Parents (or any other relatives) using Genetic Testing • A Sample “Case” • A Blow-by-blow Walkthrough of the “Weiss Case” • Parting Thoughts and Observations • Q & A?
The Miracle of Cheap Genetic Tests • 23andme, FtDNA, AncestryDNA • Cost of sequencing falling rapidly • Popularity • Millions have taken tests and millions more will as prices fall further
A Conversation with Sunil B • Sunil Bopardikar: VP of Engineering at my former company • Long informal philosophical chat in 7/2013 after award ceremony • Discussion Topic: Whence exceptional talent? • Our conclusion: mostly due to random genetic fluctuations, globally omnipresent, randomly distributed, awaiting accidental discovery • Sunil’s Q:“Have you taken the 23andme test?”
Computer Science • A Happy Coincidence: My choice of Profession • Three Pillars of CS: Data, Data Structures, and Algorithms • CS is all about extracting, gathering and cleaning up data, then figuring out how it all interrelates (pun intended), and finally developing methods to extract inferences • This “mystery” was tailor-made for a CS wonk
Essential Concepts • Consanguinity aka “Match Percentage” • The Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) • Half Relations • Haplogroups • The “Records Horizon” • The Process of Elimination • The NumbersGame (as in “Law of Large”)
Essential Skills and Resources • Family Tree Construction • Finding (and Dealing with) Living Relatives • Knowing where to find Key Information • Handling Roadblocks
Consanguinity • Consanguinity: The percentage of VERY slowly changing genetic markers that two people have in common (about 930K SNP’s out of 3.2B base pairs) • International Society of Genetic Genealogy (ISOGG) Chart – the source of all knowledge! • Determines possible / probable blood relations • Used to identify the MRCA: “Most Recent Common Ancestor” • NB: Adoptees are often half-relations (also caused by subsequent marriages)
Divide Percentages (in red) by 2 for HALF RELATIONS
Finding the MRCA • The success of any search for biological parents hinges on the correct identification of the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) you share with a person whose lineage is already known (or reasonably discoverable). • Basic Concept: Discovering where two family trees converge (in which specific ancestor) • Good news: for most adoptees (half relations), MRCA’s are one step CLOSER than they usually are for full relations • NB: For non-adoptees, the “MRCA” is a couple
Critical Question: How Far Back? • Once you’ve identified a match, the critical question you need to answer is: How far back must you go in their family tree to find your common ancestor? • This is important because of the “Records Horizon” constraint. • To answer this question: Estimate the MRCA’s birth year • As a general rule, it’s very difficult to find records prior to an ancestor’s immigration • Spellings can change, foreign records are usually not digitized (or searchable)
Case Background • Cohen, born in 1930, is adopted and wishes to find his biological parents • Liebowitz is a 3% “genetic match” with him according to 23andMe • Liebowitz is 24 years younger than Cohen • Questions: • What is their probable blood relation? • How far back must the Liebowitz family tree be traced to find their Common Ancestor?
Finding the Relationship • Step 1: Since Cohen is one generation OLDER than Liebowitz, and since they share 3% of their genetic markers, it may seem that we need to look for “3%” on the ISOGG chart • Step 2: Since C & L are almost certainly HALF relations, any matching percentage on the chart must be divided by 2! So we actually need to search for “6%” (or thereabouts) • Step 3: Assigning Cohen to the “self” bubble on the chart, we scan the next row down (one generation younger) to find Liebowitz’ 6% figure
Finding the Common Ancestor • Step 4: The only possible explanation given the match percentage (and relative ages) is that Liebowitz is Cohen’s half first cousin once removed. • Step 5: Now that we know how C & L are related, we need to determine how far back to map out the Liebowitz family tree. • Preliminary Answer: The common ancestor is THREE generations older than Leibowitz and was one of her great grandparents (and one of Cohen’s biological grandparents)
The “MRCA” Birth Year • The Key Question: Approximately when was this common ancestor born? • Answer: assuming 20 – 30 years per generation, this person would have been born between 3 x 20 and 3 x 30, or 60 to 90 years before Liebowitz (or 40 to 60 years before Cohen)
Do Records go back that far? • Since Cohen was born in 1930, the common ancestor would have been born sometime between and 1870 and 1890. • Can you find searchable records for them that identify all of their children (one of whom is Cohen’s parent)? • If so, identify all of their descendants and see which one(s) are “candidate biological parents” based on ages, cities of residence and your birth year and city • If not, the information needed to identify the common ancestor lies beyond the “Records Horizon”
Review • Based on a match percentage, we determined the likely relation using the ISOGG chart • From this we determined the probable common ancestor • Given how many generations older that common ancestor is than our match, we determine if it’s even possible to find the requisite records identify all of our match’s ancestors of that generation (family tree level)
Review • We try to rule out as many of these ancestors as possible (eg ones who died in youth, etc) • We then generate family trees downward for each of the remaining candidate common ancestors to find our biological parent filtering by times and places of residence during adulthood • Observation: For each generation further back we have to go, the number of candidate common ancestors DOUBLES! • Sneaky Move: If the match knows through which parent we are related (sometimes known), we can eliminate half the tree we need to trace!
The “General Algorithm” • Take genetic tests with as many services as possible • Designate your results as “public” • If money is tight, chose services in descending order of database size (23andme, ancestryDNA) • Have adoptee take the tests (finding matches using their children is more difficult) • Check match results at least monthly.
General Algorithm (2 of 3) • Considering the “Records Horizon” problem, Select a match percentage “action threshold” • Suggestion: Only send “contact invitations” to matches greater than 2.5% or 5% • Be a Squeaky (but pleasant) Wheel with the invitations • Once contact is established, build rapport and seek to obtain as much of the “Essential Information” as you can
General Algorithm (3 of 3) • Essential Information: • Names of parents and grandparents • Years of birth and death • City of their residence when they reached sexual maturity • City of birth, marriage and death. • Use the steps outlined in the “Worked Example” to determine the common ancestor (eg grandparent) • (Adoptees) Map all of their descendants, ruling out as many as possible. One of the remaining descendants is your biological parent • (Adoptees) Repeat with as many matches as needed until you have identified both biological parents
Haplogroups (Adoptees) • An essential tool for determining which parent you share with somebody else • Maternal and Paternal “letter groups” designating gene clusters shared by people originating from a specific geographical region • MHG (Maternal Haplogroup) passed on the X chromosome from mother to child • PHG passed on the Y (sorry ladies) from father to son only
Haplogroups (cont’d) • All women along a matrilineal line share the same MHG. They pass their MHG to offspring. • All men along a patrilinealline share the same PHG. They pass their PHG only to male offspring. • Women have no PHG, only an MHG • Two males sharing the same father (or paternal grandfather) have the same PHG • Any two people sharing the same mother (or maternal grandmother) have the same MHG • Negative cases can exclude possible relationships
Potential Roadblocks • Difficult to find records prior to emigration due to: • Mangled spellings in passenger manifests • “Americanized” names (Calogero -> Charlie) • Records are in foreign languages • Records abroad not likely to be digitized or online • Families whose members have been estranged for many years • (Adoptees) Relatives who simply refuse to talk
Census Problems • Census takers often misspelled “tricky” foreign names, so searches fail • Immigrants lied to census takers about about when they immigrated, their naturalization status or their age • Immigrants may have avoided census takers altogether • Pre-1900 US Census Records are verysketchy
Statistical Ambiguity Problem: What relationship does a 4% match have with you? There are TWO answers! Things get fuzzy when ranges overlap. Source: https://customercare.23andme.com/hc/en-us/articles/202907170-Average-percent-DNA-shared-between-relatives
Differing Generational Cycles • The average years between generations can vary by branch of the family tree. • As the number of generations back to the common ancestor grows, the more ambiguous people’s “generation count” becomes. • Example: Two people of the exact same age today can actually be one generation apart if one person’s branch averages 20 years per generation and the other’s averages 30 years (over a 60 year period)
Pointers • Tree building: Accept the fact that you must subscribe to ancestry.com and become highly proficient in its use (or hire someone who is) • To build a Family Tree, derive relationships from Census data and other people’s public trees! • (Adoptees) Find “Search Angels” – eg Priscilla Sharp • Extract family relations from newspaper birth and marriage announcements, and obituaries (the hands-down BEST source of all)
Still More Pointers • Obtain Death Certificates to learn names of parents (eg maiden names) and birth dates • Resist the urge to spam distant (low match) relations indiscriminately out of desperation • Prepare to endure Endless Discouragements: • Contact invitation response rates are very low. • Responses are often long-delayed • Respondents may question your motives • People will say your odds of finding a biological relative are minuscule (and they are correct!)
Avoid “Combinatorial Explosion” • The only way to combat these problems (for non-adoptees) is to trace both back family trees until you find the MRCA(s) • For each generation further back you must go to find the MRCA, the number of people you need to consider (trace) grows exponentially • Conclusion: Avoid longshots. Trying to track down very low match percentages can drive you nuts.
Key Sources of Information • Genetic Testing Sites • AncestryDNA.com (Mandatory) • 23andme.com (Mandatory) • ftDNA.com? Gedmatch.com? (Optional) • Federal and State Censuses • Genealogy Websites • Ancestry.com (Mandatory) • Familysearch.org (Free!)
Key Sources of Information • Newspapers (digitized archives searchable online) • Obituaries The Motherlode • Marriage Announcements • Birth Announcements • Digitized newspaper Archives (egfultonhistory.com) • Search Angels • Priscilla Sharp • Local Genealogical Researchers (library gnomes) • City, County and State Vital Records • Birth, Marriage and Death records • Adoption Agencies
Key Sources of Information • “People Search” Sites • Intellius.com • Radaris.com • Obituary Search Sites / Google obit searches • Adoption Groups
A “Real Life” Case:Walkthroughof the Weiss Case (2014 – 2015)
Mother’s Side • Based on my conversation with Sunil, I take the 23andme test and buy another for my father in 12/2013 • I introduce my father to Priscilla Sharp, an “Adoption Search Angel”, and she and I then urged him to request a copy of his (heavily redacted) adoption record from the State of NY • First Clue: In 2/2014 I learn on 23andMe.com that Melanie Ott shares 5.81% (ie ~6.25%) of her genetic markers with me and is of my generation
Pieces Fall into Place • I send Melanie Ott an invitation to connect on 2/14/14 • She does not answer until 12/17/14(!) • I immediately tell my father about my discovery • He notes he has a 12.4% match with Melanie suggesting we are on the right trail, so he contacts her • By process of elimination, per the ISOGG table, the only possible explanation that fits the facts is that she is my half1st cousin (not 2nd cousin as the site claimed) • Therefore we share ONE grandparent who is also my father’s parent.
Parallel Efforts • On 12/19/14 Melanie provides the names and descriptions of her grandparents which my father then forwards to Priscilla Sharp, a “Search Angel” (truly worthy of the title) • Priscilla notes that Nathalia Baker (nee Gratz) is Hungarian matching the “Hungarian Jew” described in the redacted (“non-identifying”) adoption report from NY
Seeking Certainty • Although I respected the strong circumstantial case Priscilla made, I wanted definitive proof before claiming anyone was a blood relative, so I resolved to find at least one of Natalie’s surviving children to take the 23andme test • Problem: Due to “family issues”, Melanie has no idea where any of them lives (!!) • Her father refuses to tell her on religious grounds (!!!)
AFW, Private Investigator pro tem • Based on census records (ancestry.com), I learn that Melanie’s father (Richard Baker) has three siblings: Howard, David and Carol • Huge Problem: “Baker” is a terrible name to look for in a nationwide search! • I conclude that it’s impossible to find them based on name alone. • Nobody knows Carol’s married name
The Rest of the Story • Priscilla Sharp SA, also told me about a massive online searchable archive of Buffalo newspapers • I spent days searching it and finally found the married name of Carol Baker (Roeder) in her wedding announcement from the early 60’s • Using this very uncommonname, I located her in Florida using intellius.com • Melanie contacted her aunt Carol to get the current addresses of all of the other Baker children (Melanie’s uncles)
Mystery Solved • I decided that getting one of her sons to take the test would pin things down beyond any doubt (since my father and he should share a MHG but not their PHGs) • Carol told us that Howard had died, but that David and Richard were also living in FL. • Richard wanted nothing to do with genetic tests • David took the test, and his results solved the case: he shares 25% of his markers with my father thereby establishing their “half siblinghood” • David’s MHG matched my fathers, but his PHG did not proving that their common parent was his mother.