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Analysis Categories. Base-case analysis What-if (sensitivity) analysis Breakeven Analysis Optimization Analysis Risk Analysis. Sensitivity Analysis. A systematic way of asking “what-if” scenario questions in order to understand
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Analysis Categories • Base-case analysis • What-if (sensitivity) analysis • Breakeven Analysis • Optimization Analysis • Risk Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis • A systematic way of asking “what-if” scenario questions in order to understand • what outcomes could possibly occur that would effect your decision • which input assumptions have the most impact on key outputs and thus your decision and should be analyzed further • Performed by setting all inputs equal to their base values and changing one variable’s assumed value at a time
Breakeven Analysis • Identify a breakeven value (a cutoff level) for a parameter that triggers a target value for a key output • Example: at what price will the company earn a 15% return on its investment? • Goal Seek in Excel is useful for performing this type of search
Optimization Analysis • What decision choices result in the best possible (optimal) value of an output? • What is the most or least that can be achieved for an output variable? • Solver in Excel or the Optimization platform in RSPE can be used to optimize a model
Risk Analysis • Simulate a scenario of possible input values that could occur and observe key outputs • Pick many different input scenarios according to their likelihood of occurring • Record and summarize the key outputs observed to measure risks • Crystal Ball and RSPE can be used to perform simulation for a model