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An ongoing study?? . Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change and globalisationSupported by CIDA and the Government of NorwayTERI, CICERO and IISD as partners. Main objectives. Identify highly vulnerable regions and social groupsStudy factors that enhance or constrain coping capac
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1. Methodology used in the CIDA study an example of India AIACC Asia-Pacific Region Open Meeting
March 2003 Tutorial session
2. An ongoing study Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change and globalisation
Supported by CIDA and the Government of Norway
TERI, CICERO and IISD as partners
3. Main objectives Identify highly vulnerable regions and social groups
Study factors that enhance or constrain coping capacity
4. Methodology Vulnerability profile
Case studies
Integration of macro- and micro- scale analyses
Policy survey and recommendations
5. Methodology Vulnerability profile
Case studies
Integration of macro- and micro- scale analyses
Policy survey and recommendations
6. Scale at which the study was planned Using GIS techniques, district level analysis was undertaken for India
Information collected for more than 450 districts of India
7. Procedure followed for developing a vulnerability profile
8. Indicators identified and selected Physical vulnerability
Soil degradation and cover, groundwater extraction
(Flood and drought prone areas)
9. Indicators identified and selected Social vulnerability
Literacy levels, % cultivators to labourers, Infrastructure development, gender discrimination, irrigation availability
(% population below the poverty line, mechanisation of agriculture)
10. Construction of base vulnerability map Data on each of the indicators collected
Individual thematic layers of each indicator prepared
Weightages assigned
Generation of physical and social vulnerability maps
Overlay of both physical and social vulnerability maps to develop the base vulnerability map
11. Base vulnerability map
12. Indicators identified and selected Climatic factors
(intra-annual precipitation variability, inter-annual precipitation variability and dryness index)
(frequency and intensity of cyclones)
13. Construction of climate sensitivity index Data on each of the indicators collected both observed and scenario data used
Individual thematic layers of each indicator prepared
Weightages assigned
Generation of CSI
14. Climate sensitivity map - observed
15. Climate sensitivity map in future
16. Construction of climate change vulnerability map
Based on an overlay of the climate change vulnerability map and the base vulnerability map, regions that are sensitive to both current climate variability and future climate change as well as other biophysical and social factors are identified
17. Climate change vulnerability map
18. Indicators identified and selected Economic vulnerability
Port distance, cropping patterns
Food crops (rice, wheat, maize, gram)
Commercial crops (sugarcane, tobacco, cotton)
Export/ import crops (groundnut, rapeseed and mustard)
Other crops (Onion)
(Other crops: spices, tea, coffee, horticultural crops apples etc)
19. Construction of trade sensitivity index Data on each of the indicators collected Individual thematic layers of each indicator prepared
Weightages assigned
Generation of TSI
20. Construction of globalisation vulnerability map
Based on an overlay of the globalisation vulnerability map and the base vulnerability map, regions that are sensitive to both trade as well as other biophysical and social factors are identified
21. Globalisation vulnerability map
22. Elements of vulnerability profiles
23. Regions of double exposure
24. Methodology Vulnerability profile
Case studies
Integration of macro- and micro- scale analyses
Policy survey and recommendations
25. Village-level case studies
26. Objective
To assess how factors within the context of key domestic policies either enhance or constrain the ability of farmers to cope with climate change
27. Case study approach
Participatory rural appraisals
Focused group discussions with small and marginal farmers
One-to-one meetings with village heads and district administrative officers Questionnaire-based survey
Economic status
Agricultural practices
Coping mechanisms
Access to facilities (electricity, irrigation, health, education, loans, etc)
28. Next steps Integrate case study results (3 more planned) and policy analysis with macro-level vulnerability profile - develop matrix relating globalization, policies, and climate vulnerability for agriculture sector
Recommendations for adaptation
29. Thank youwww.teriin.org/climate/climate.htm