"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts,

1. "To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts, and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and animal life that can be put on a map. ... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling or such a dehumanizing influence as is often made out. It does not take the beauty from nature. The only rules of scientific method are honest observations and accurate logic. To be great science it must also be guided by a judgment, almost an instinct, for what is worth studying. No one should feel that honesty and accuracy guided by imagination have any power to take away nature's beauty." Robert A. MacArthur, 1972

2. What is Ecology the science of? DEF: The scientific study of the distribution & abundance of organisms and their interactions that determine their distribution & abundance • Its vague • Its boring • It doesn’t capture the flavor of ecology

3. Something more captivating

4. Phainopepla & mistletoe 1) The fit of Form & Function Decorator crab

5. Deepest recorded dive of an Elephant Seal is 2,388 metres (7,835 ft)

6. Predator-prey interactions

7. Mutualisms Aphid-goldenrod-ant http://homepages.ius.edu/RHUNT01/research/Graminella.htm

8. 2) Species Diversity

9. 3) Out-of “Balance of Nature”

10. Environment Last Year: The Warmest Year On Record (Again) That makes 2010 the 34th consecutive year when the global temperature was above average.

11. Institute of Ecosystem tudies (1998-2010)

12. Oak-dominated forest experience frequent resource pulses in the form of acorn crops

14. A (food-web) Model St+1 + At

16. 0.10 0.08 0.06 Nest daily mortality rate 0.04 0.02 0.00 0 50 100 150 Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)

17. The Model expands - ?when? St+1 + At

18. 0.10 0.08 0.06 Nest daily mortality rate 0.04 0.02 0.00 0 50 100 150 Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha) Probability of fledging young: Good years ~ 65% Moderate ~ 20% Bad years < 10% Translate into regional fluctuations in songbird densities w/respect to rodent/acorn densities

19. The Breeding Bird Survey is a network of over 3000 sampling routes across NA If… then… ? Nest predation Adult birds (t+1) Rodents Rodents

21. - - When rodents common When rodents crash - St+1 + Two ways songbirds can lose Model At

22. Survivorship of fledgling birds was lowest during a rodent crash

23. Part II: Using population models to examine the relationship between long-term population growth and masting dynamics 0.10 1999: =0.712 - 0.878 Veery 0.08 0.06 Nest daily mortality rate 0.04 0.02 2000: =1.028 - 1.267 0.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Rodent abundance (MNA)

24. Simulated masting dynamics 30 (c) (a) 0.6 0.5 20 0.4 Crop size Proportion per Bar 0.3 10 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ln (crop size) Year

25. Acorns  rodents  nest predation rates  seasonal fecundity Acorns:simulated to match the range of variability (min-max) seen at IES Acorns  rodents: empirical relationships Rodents nest predation: empirical relationships Nest predation  seasonal fecundity: formulation in Schmidt and Whelan (1998) Survival rates: estimated from the literature Prey-switching by raptors: juvenile survivorship declines 25% following crash of rodent population

26. 1.04 1.02 1.00 Long-term growth rate 0.98 0 0.25 0.5 0.96 0.75 1 0.94 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Masting frequency • Negative relationship • Strong relationship Population increasing Population decreasing

27. Is variability in masting dynamics responsible for geographical differences in songbird population trends? Veery (Catharus fuscescens)

28. A brief history (and future) of changes to eastern forests and mast-producing trees Declines in moth outbreaks? Extirpation of Pass. Pigeon    Forest regeneration and succession……….. ?     Forest Destruction Chestnut blight Gypsy moths Beech bark disease Climate Change; SOD