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Why Study Dirty Bomb Risks?

The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices (“Dirty Bombs”) Detlof von Winterfeldt University of Southern California Presentation at the Conference “The Future of Terrorism Insurance” University of Southern California June 20, 2005. Why Study Dirty Bomb Risks?.

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Why Study Dirty Bomb Risks?

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  1. The Risks of Radiological Dispersal Devices (“Dirty Bombs”)Detlof von WinterfeldtUniversity of Southern CaliforniaPresentation at the Conference“The Future of Terrorism Insurance”University of Southern CaliforniaJune 20, 2005

  2. Why Study Dirty Bomb Risks? • Thousands of radioactive materials in the U.S. and abroad • Many lost sources • Relatively easy to buy or steal • Potential for massive psychological and economic effects

  3. Risk Analysis • Develop attack scenarios: Sources x delivery mechanism x location • Estimate relative probabilities: Project risk analysis • Radiological source term and plume modeling • Consequence assessment

  4. Example Sources • Medical, Research, Food Facilities • Blood irradiator (1-5,000 Curies) • Research irradiator • Industrial irradiator (50-250,000 Curies) • Nuclear Waste • LLW • HLW • Spent Fuel (1 million Curies per fuel assembly) • Special Nuclear Materials • Enriched Uranium • Plutonium

  5. LA and Long Beach Ports 3rd busiest port in the world 36% of US imports 11.4 million TEUs per year $212 billion cargo value

  6. Theft of an Industrial Irradiator

  7. The Project Begins…. Plan Prepare • RAD Source • Bomb Target • Staffing • Funding • Communication Obtain explosives Transport explosives Build dirty bomb Obtain RAD material Transport RAD material

  8. … and is completed Attack Build dirty bomb Transport dirty bomb to target Detonate dirty bomb Escape

  9. Event Tree

  10. Probability of Success

  11. Figure 4.1: Hypothetical Plume due to a 10,000 Curie Release

  12. Fatalities • Blast effect and acute radiation impacts: a few fatalities • Four day dose from plume: tens to hundreds of latent cancers • Ground shine: tens to hundreds of latent cancers

  13. Cost of Shutting Down the Ports • 15 days: $138 million • 120 days: $ 35 billion • 365 days: $100 billion

  14. Other Costs • Evacuation: up to $100 million • Property Values: up to $200 million • Business Loss: up to $3 billion • Decontamination: up to $100 billion

  15. Conclusions • A dirty Bomb is nor a weapon of mass destruction….. • Very few immediate fatalities • At worst hundreds of latent cancers • ….but psychological and economic impacts can be massive: • Shut down of facilities and businesses • Decontamination • …. and the probability of a dirty bomb attack is unknown

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