The Future of Agroforestry Science

1. The Future of Agroforestry Science January 26, 2007

2. Questions • Is something historically unique happening in the world of agroforestry right now? • What might it signify? • How might it impact on the development of our focused scientific agenda? • Where are we in the process of developing our new strategic plan? • How shall we are moving forward?

3. Is something historically unique happening in the world of agroforestry right now? • Observation: Most of the global institutions involved in poverty and environment are suddenly and intensively reaching out to agroforestry and to the World Agroforestry Centre. • Observation: They are approaching us to work with us, learn from us, support us, and benefit from our science in addressing big global issues…

4. Who are these institutions? The institutions we’re talking about here are the virtually all of the big multilateral institutions and the largest environmental and poverty-related NGOs. There are numerous examples. • The World Bank is a good one to start with: The Bank’s multi-hundred million dollar investment programme on land degradation in Africa has asked us to deploy our pioneering methods in assessing land degradation in their monitoring systems in all of their projects. The GEF has done likewise. • The World Bank Institute and the BioCarbon Fund has begun working with us intensively on new approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation. • And most recently, the Bank’s Forestry Group has asked us to help them develop a Global Forestry Alliance proposal to massively scale-up smallholder agroforestry in Africa through a portfolio of new projects intent upon making impact on the lives of millions of smallholder households. • GEF – on land degradation, and on public-private partnerships for the environment. • UNEP has asked us to partner with them in The Billion Trees Initiative and allied efforts to overcome land degradation.

5. The UNDP has requested us to deploy our science and experience in building capacity at the regional and national levels related to their MDG Carbon Initiative. • NEPAD has approached us to develop a continental initiative on soil science. • FARA has asked us to lead a massive capacity-building effort through ANAFE. • Likewise, some of the largest and most respected NGOs have been approaching us to partner with them as well. WWF has sought us to partner with them in developing a smallholder carbon toolbox – assembling the methods by which successful smallholder projects can be designed, implemented, monitored and evaluated.

6. The Clinton Foundation is intensively interacting with us about leading the science in a new global Carbon – Poverty Reduction initiative based on smallholder agroforestry. • CARE, World Vision, and The Greenbelt Movement are also developing new collaboration with us on this front. • Conservation International has developed with us the Hotspots Alliance. • This list of examples doesn’t even include the private sector companies that are now actively engaging us in joint agroforestry research activities. Companies such as the Mars Corporation and Unilever. • The list goes on. But the significant point is that these organizations are approaching us, and in many cases developing frameworks to support our work for mutual benefit.

7. Much of this has to do with accelerating interest in Climate ChangeAct Now, Before It is Too LateArticle in The New Scientist “Time is running out, and fast. Rising carbon dioxide levels and higher temperatures will soon set in motion potentially catastrophic changes that will take hundreds or even thousands of years to reverse.” -- New Scientist, Nov 2006

8. Climate ChangeAct Now, Before It is Too Late Researchers have highlighted evidence that the danger is more pressing than was thought. Three distinct types of danger: • The first one is incremental changes in average climate conditions to which people must adapt.

9. Climate ChangeAct Now, Before It is Too Late • The second is the effect these conditions have on increasing the chances of extreme events, such as devastating hurricanes (eg Katrina), or heat waves such as 2002 in Europe that killed 30,000 people.

10. Climate ChangeAct Now, Before It is Too Late • The third is ‘waking the sleeping giants’ triggering irreversible changes in natural systems, such as -- the melting of polar ice caps that will raise sea levels enormously, and -- the warming of the permafrost that will release huge quantities of carbon dioxide. This will throw global CO2 emissions into fast-forward irreversibly.

11. Climate ChangeAct Now, Before It is Too Late (cont’d) Once we pass these thresholds there will be no return. But we are closer to these tipping points than previously supposed – only a decade away in some cases. We have got to act much faster and more comprehensively than virtually anyone imagined until recently. “If we go beyond 2 degrees C we will raise hell.” -- John Schellnhuber, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Cambridge, UK.

12. Stern report on the economics of climate change (October 2006) • The benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs. • Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; more dramatic predictions would reduceGDP as much as 20%. • The cost of reducing emissions could be limited to around 1% of global GDP. • Each tonne of CO2 we emit causes damages worth at least $85, but emissions can be cut at a cost of less than $25 a tonne.

13. And the world is (finally) waking up“I’ve never seen a phenomenon take over the public consciousness like climate change”. – David Crane, CEO, NRG Energy, Princeton NJ

14. What is significant is that20 % of gross GHGs are emitted by land use change and deforestation So as the world begins to panic at the catastrophic consequences of the greenhouse effect it won’t be long before the climate change community begins to seriously turn its attention to agriculture and forestry. And when it does, the world of agriculture will be changed forever.

15. Analysis -- What will this mean for farming systems in the tropics? A Real Incentive to Reverse Deforestation • Got to figure out how to drastically reverse the destruction and degradation of forest lands throughout the world. It can be done…and it has already been done in the northern hemisphere. • A real revolution in land use in the southern hemisphere is going to be necessary – and very soon. • This calls for a whole new effort geared to finding ways to rapidly slow down and reverse deforestation in the tropics. • Avoided deforestation is a global challenge if there ever was one.

16. Capturing carbon in agricultural lands • We must also find ways of reversing the loss of CO2 from agricultural lands by developing farming systems that stop generating net CO2 and sequester more CO2. • This is a clarion call for a transformation of the world’s farming systems. • There are two ways that current farming systems can reverse net CO2 emissions from the land…

17. 1st, Phasing out tillage… • …So that carbon can re-accumulate below-ground in the soil. • Reduced tillage and zero tillage farming systems must now be instituted everywhere. • Innovative ways of incorporating trees into farming systems to enable better weed suppression and to reduce the need for nitrogen fertilizer will be seen to have much greater added benefits than ever before.

18. 2nd, Increase above-ground carbon • All agricultural systems will have to find ways to increase above-ground carbon. This means integrating trees in these systems. • The world will need to find ways of integrating trees into farming systems on a massive scale so that every hectare of agricultural land becomes a sink for carbon, no longer a source. • Thus, agroforestry will increasingly be seen as the future of world land use systems.

19. Addressing climate change promises to transform agriculture everywhere in the world • The future of that transformed agriculture is the intensification of tree culture on all types of farmland, community land, and urban areas. • There are a billion hectares of agroecosystems in the tropical world alone where agroforestry can contribute to the reversal of current carbon emissions (IPCC, 2001) • The sequestration of carbon through agroforestry can soak up substantive amounts of the current fossil-fuel based emissions (perhaps 1 Gt C per year of the current 6 Gt C that is being emitted).

20. Agroforestry will be seen as the heart of the matter • In addressing the climate change, biodiversity, and desertification conventions in ways that it was not viewed before… • Because poverty can be addressed simultaneously. • Hypothesis:The world will soon be keen to adopt agroforestry as a universal means of addressing its greatest challenges on a holistic, integrated basis.

22. Agroforestry at the heart of it all • The World Agroforestry Centre is increasingly being seen as the partner of choice in efforts to generate solutions to the challenge of climate change adaptation and mitigation in the tropics. • This role will increase in the future. • Centre scientific leadership in this area calls for a definitive and quantitative set of scenarios that show the way in which carbon balances are currently moving in agroecosystems globally, and will proceed under varying policy and investment scenarios in the future.

23. Agroforestry at the heart of it all • We need to develop a spatial and temporal model of global agricultural systems that calculates the effects of the alternative scenarios. • The model must interact with the modeling of industrial GHG emissions and their future scenarios. • As the world gets serious about the necessity for an all-out approach to managing GHGs to forestall climatic disaster, there will be a lot of attention to real investment in science-based practical farming solutions.

24. Integrated, complex problems – that is our mission • Fundamental strength in addressing complex, integrated problems • Problems that require the deployment of interdisciplinary teams of scientists, development specialists and educators • Provider of systems solutions through agroforestry

25. What is the action and the execution needed? • Model the agroecosystem trajectory in the tropical world into the future – for every significant farming domain in Africa and throughout the world • Model the carbon futures scenarios for each ecosystem, yielding the enterprise portfolios and their carbon budgets – based on a firm understanding of the farming systems • Determine the key actions and investments needed to realize the favorable carbon futures that are also most favorable to smallholder poverty alleviation

26. What Could Be The Overall Flow of Funds to the Poor from such a Market? • Carbon sequestration business deals on a billion hectares of land in the tropics – • If the investment were to provide $20 /t C * 2 t C sequestered per hectare for 20 years * 1 billion hectares • That is $ 40 billion dollars per year for 20 years.

27. This is equivalent of $ 650 of additional income per capita for a billion people. But there would be other benefits as well: • Vastly increased production and productivity of tree crops that would earn additional income and improve household nutrition and food security. • More productive soils that increase crop production – directly through increased soil replenishment, reduced tillage, greater investment in fertilization, and better soil conservation. • Enhanced habitat for biodiversity conservation. • A global landcare ethic • Boost for global peace and security and multilateralism.

28. The big question:How does all this impact on the development of our focused scientific agenda?

29. These developments are consistent with our Vision of an agroforestry transformation in the developing world… Resulting in a massive increase in the use of working trees on working landscapes by smallholder rural households that helps ensure security in food, nutrition, income, health, shelter and energy, and a regenerated environment.

30. Our Mission Goals are consistent with the integrated approaches needed • To develop the role of trees in sound land and farm management • To domesticate and conserve trees and expand market opportunities for smallholder tree products • To develop pro-poor agroforestry strategies that benefit local people and enhance environmental services • To improve capacities for effective research, development and education in agroforestry

31. Our Integrated Frame is cognizant of the various scales at which solutions are needed: Four Global Themes Trees and Markets – the components Germplasm, products, processing, market chains Land and People – the household farm system Assembling the components together into systems Environmental Services – the landscape effects Watershed management, biodiversity, climate change Strengthening Institutions – Building capacity in research & development

32. Our role in the CGIAR1) Active involvement in developing the System Priority Framework Plans2) Leadership in Creating New Challenge Programmes3) Leadership in implementing the CGIAR Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Plan for Collective Action among the Centres4) Being an effective partner in the Alliance of CGIAR Centres

33. Where are we in the process of developing our new strategic plan? Scientific Renewal at the World Agroforestry Centre • We are committed to embracing change in our organization - starting with our corporate identity as a science institution.   • We remain committed to our vision of transforming lives and landscapes. • We are refreshing our mission to re-emphasize the science that underpins it. 

34. New draft mission statement We use science to understand the complex role of trees in livelihoods and the environment, and promote use of this knowledge to improve decisions and practices impacting on the poor. • Emphasis is on doing science and promoting knowledge. • Brings clarity and should connect with all our stakeholders. • A single coherent organization (one ICRAF) that is entirely focused on advancing the global mission. 

35. Where are we in the process of developing our new strategic plan? • We are placing all of our work in the context of a few key global problems. • We are establishing a framework for defining priorities at all levels - based on four key criteria: salience or relevance, credibility, legitimacy, and fundability. • This framework will guide the decisions we make about all the work that we pursue.

36. Where are we in the process of developing our new strategic plan? • We will direct our resource mobilization efforts in line with these priorities. • We will direct our strategic policy engagement only to those key global fora where agroforestry science has a particularly critical policy-relevant role to play.

37. The process and timeline for our new strategy • Scientific Renewal Workshop in Sept 2006 laid the groundwork • The Strategic Alignment Committee has developed a framework for analysing each initiative. • Prospective research areas have been identified and are being prioritized • Science Meetings to finalize strategy (26 February – 2 March)

38. Issues to be addressed and processes in place Setting strategic scientific priorities Organizational realignment Coherent Proactive Strategic Direction Where best form can continue to mould itself to goals and purpose

39. How we’ll make it work • Setting and sticking to a limited set of priorities • Speed up decision-making • Streamline the execution of decisions taken • Regular reviews of all major aspects of agenda • Better communications at all levels

40. What Have We Covered? • Is something unique happening in the world of agroforestry right now? Something profound is happening. And it will change our role and impact in the world profoundly. • What does it signify? We must get on top of this and be the driver, not be driven. • How does it impact on the development of our focused scientific agenda? It bodes toward a truly integrated agenda, focusing on really significant global challenges, providing solutions that work on the ground at the national and local levels.

41. What Have We Covered? • Where are we in the process of developing our new strategic plan? Through the leadership of our Strategic Alignment Committee we are on track to deliver a new and refreshing strategic plan to our Board in April. • How we are moving forward? We are intensively preparing for the key discussions of the upcoming Science Meetings to bring all staff into a process that can create One ICRAF, an institution with focus and impact in the turbulent but high-opportunity times in the years ahead.

42. The World Agroforestry Centre is now being sought out for our science to tackle enormous global problemsYou are needed in this enterprise. Your passion, your energy, your intellect, and your sweat.Which leads me to my very last question –Will you be on the team to join us in this adventure.An adventure inExecution…Achievement…and Excellence?