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Hurricane Gonzalo – EMO & DAO brief

Hurricane Gonzalo – EMO & DAO brief. BWS briefing- Wednesday 15 th October 2014. http://www.weather.bmEMOGonzalo EMODAO brief Wed/. NHC. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. BWS. http://www.weather.bm. Kimberley Zuill, Director James Dodgson, Deputy Director 15 Oct 2014.

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Hurricane Gonzalo – EMO & DAO brief

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  1. Hurricane Gonzalo – EMO & DAO brief BWS briefing- Wednesday 15th October 2014 http://www.weather.bm\EMO\Gonzalo EMODAO brief Wed/ NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ BWS http://www.weather.bm Kimberley Zuill, Director James Dodgson, Deputy Director 15 Oct 2014

  2. 12z Wednesday Surface Analysis Current Surface Map: http://www.weather.bm/maps/Atlantic.gif

  3. 1445Z Wed 15 Oct IR Sat image & rough surface analysis

  4. ASCAT (Satellite-derived) Winds earlier today

  5. 12noon tropical update Gonzalo is now Forecast to be a Category 3 Hurricane as it passes close to Bermuda

  6. Thursday 12Z forecast

  7. Friday 12Z forecast

  8. Latest NHC outlook

  9. Forecast – Hurricane Watch Likely going into Hurricane Warning later today Monday 7:30am Forecast Likely going into Hurricane Warning at 4.30pm today Tides: High: 2.36pm/ 3.06am Low: 8.25am/ 9.15pm

  10. Tide times – St Georges

  11. 12Z TAF – Standard 24hr TAF TXKF 151133Z 1512/1612 12018KT 9999 VCSH SCT025 BKN060 PROB30 TEMPO 1512/1612 12022KT 4800 SHRA BKN014

  12. 12Z TAF – 36hr TAF TXKF 1512/1700 12018KT 9999 VCSH SCT025 BKN060 PROB30 TEMPO 1512/1615 12022KT 4800 SHRA BKN014 BECMG 1615/1618 14020KT SCT015 BKN030 OVC120 PROB40 TEMPO 1615/1700 14025G35KT 3200 SHRA SCT008 BKN012

  13. Onset/Cessation wind timings

  14. Conclusion • Conditions deteriorate dramatically by Thursday night with gradual improvement later on Friday • Encourage everyone to complete their hurricane preparation by Thursday afternoon – note there could be some gusty winds in showers tomorrow • Large swells – up to 30ft expected, possible surge and flooding to low lying areas Thank you for your attention, any Questions?

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