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The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can

In this lesson you will learn to reach fundamental understandings of conditional probability by modeling scenarios. The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can

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The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can

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  1. In this lesson you will learn to reach fundamental understandings of conditional probability by modeling scenarios.

  2. The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can be derived from MultiplicationRule 2 as follows:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  3. Conditional probability – the probability of an event (B) occurring given that an event (A) has already occurred. P (A and B) P (B l A) = P (A)

  4. Ms. Rizzo has a bag of 13 red and blue triangles and circles. What is the probability a shape is a triangle given that it is blue? Blue Triangles Original Bag Blue Shapes 4 count of blue triangles count of blue triangles = 8 4 8 count of blue shapes count of blue shapes

  5. You roll a single six-sided die. The number you roll is not revealed, but you are told the outcome is an odd number. What is the probability the outcome is also prime? Odd Outcomes All Outcomes Odd & Prime Outcomes 2 count of prime odd outcomes count of prime odd outcomes 3 2 = 3 count of odd outcomes count of odd outcomes

  6. Problem 1 count of blue triangles P (Bl∩∆) P (∆ l Bl) = count of blue shapes P (Bl) Problem 2 P (Pr∩Odd) count of prime odd outcomes P (Pr l Odd) = P (Odd) count of odd outcomes

  7. In this lesson you will learn how to calculate conditional probabilities by using a two-way table.

  8. How do you find the probability of a passenger on the Titanic surviving given they were in first class?... Third class?

  9. Conditional probability – the probability of an event (B) occurring given that an event (A) has already occurred. P (A and B) P (B l A) = P (A)

  10. Finding the conditional probability from a two-way table is a simple process. 3 P(Br Hair ∩Female) = P(Brown Hair l Female) = = P(Female) 5

  11. What is the probability of a passenger on the Titanic surviving given they were in first class? P(Survived ∩ First) 203 = 64.5% P(Survived l First) = P(First) 325

  12. What is the probability of a passenger on the Titanic surviving given they were in third class? P(Survived ∩ Third) 178 = 25.2% P(Survived l Third) = P(Third) 706

  13. What is the probability of a passenger on the Titanic being a crew member given they survived? P(Crew∩ Survived) 212 = 29.8% P(Crew l Survived) = P(Survived) 711

  14. In this lesson you will learn how to calculate conditional probabilities by using a Venn Diagram.

  15. How do you solve this with a Venn Diagram? A statistics professor gave her class two tests, one on Thursday and one on Friday. 31% of students passed both tests, while 62% of students passed the Thursday test. What percent of students passing the Thursday test also passed the Friday test? ✓ X

  16. Conditional Probability Formula: P (A and B) P (B l A) = P (A)

  17. Venn Diagram = 1 P(A) P(A∩B) P(B) P(AC∩BC)

  18. Find the probability using a Venn Diagram. A statistics professor gave her class two tests, one on Thursday and one on Friday. 31% of students passed both tests, while 62% of students passed the Thursday test. What percent of students passing the Thursday test also passed the Friday test? .31 P (PT ∩ PF) P (PF l PT) = = .5 = 50% .62 .31 P(PT∩PF) P(PT) P(PF) .62 P (PT) P(PTC∩PFC)

  19. Find the probability using a Venn Diagram. The employees in the cafeteria are clearing out the shelves. Some students will get cookies with their lunch, and some students will receive cheese sticks. 23% of students will get cookies and cheese sticks. 45% of students will receive cookies. What percent of students who get cookies will also receive cheese sticks? .23 P (C ∩ CS) P (CS l C) = = 51% = .51 .23 .45 P(C∩CS) P(CS) P(C) .45 P (C) P(CC∩CSC)

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