What’s Happening on Main Street Montana

1. What’s Happening onMain Street Montana Main Street Montana Project Roundtable Fort Belknap, Montana July 25, 2013

2. iClicker Question Bobcats or Grizzlies? Or Other? • Bobcats • Grizzlies • Other iClicker use donated by the Economic Research Center, Montana State University - Billings

3. iClicker Questions What is your gender? • Female • Male

4. iClicker Question What is your role in Montana’s economy? • Business owner • Tribal government • Educator or student • Healthcare or non-profit • Other

5. Montana and U.S. Personal Income Growth 5th Fastest in Last Year • 37th Highest Personal Income Per Capita Euro Debt Crisis Debt Ceiling Debate Stock Market Crash Fiscal Cliff and Payroll Tax Cut Expiry U.S. Montana 12th Fastest Personal Income Growth since Depth of Recession Source: Quarterly Personal Income, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce. 37th in 2012, excludes DC.

6. Payroll Employment Nearly Recovered(Indexed to Peak Employment) Montana U.S. Source: Current Employment Statistics, April 2013 preliminary. Peak employment for Montana occurred in March 2008. U.S. indexed to Jan. 2008 peak. Great Falls to Montana peak in March 2008.

7. Employment Growth on Reservation Areas Compared to Montana 1,184 Indian Country Montana 10,474 7,605 214 204 193 3,495 935 -2,335 -460 -16,025 Source: Employment on Montana Reservation Data, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry, based on QCEW data. 2012 Reservation Employment Estimate developed from LAUS.

8. Employment Growth on Reservation Areas Compared to Montana Indian Country MT Private Employment MT Public Employment Source: Employment on Montana Reservation Data, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry

9. iClicker Question What area are you from? • Northern Cheyenne or Crow Reservation • Flathead or Blackfeet Reservation • Fort Belknap or Rocky Boy Reservation • Fort Peck Reservation • Non-reservation area

10. Employment on Reservation Areas Job Gains in 2011 Job Losses in 2010 Source: Reservation Employment Estimates, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry

11. Employment by Employer Class Self Employed Unpaid Family Members Public Public Public Public Public Public Public Public Private Private Private Private Private Private Private Private 741 969 11,268 3,429 2,356 3,964 477,082 1,443 Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011. Figures below labels are total employment.

12. Montana and U.S. Unemployment Rate • Montana has the 12th lowest unemployment rate in the U.S. U.S. Montana Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from MT DLI and the Current Population Survey from BLS. 12th lowest from Annual 2012.

13. Reservation Annual Unemployment Rates Montana Source: Reservation unemployment rates, MT Dept. of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau.

14. iClicker Question How do you feel our economy is performing right now? • Montana is rocking it! • Doing pretty good, but room for improvement. • Ho hum. The economy isn’t good, but it’s not bad. • Some people are doing ok, but not the rest of us. • Statistics are lies. It’s rough out there.

15. Responses to CurrentEconomic Performance Question Miles City Bozeman Billings Great Falls Missoula

16. Regional and Reservation Unemployment 2012 Source: Montana Dept. of Labor and Industry Reservation Unemployment Rates, 2012, and Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS and MTDLI.

17. Understanding Unemployment Rates

18. Department of Labor Unemployment Rates Labor Force Participation Rate = 65% Folks must be looking for work to be considered unemployed. Source: Data compiled by MT Dept. of Labor, Research and Analysis based on American Community Survey micro data from 2009-2011 available through data ferret. Percentages are of full civilian population.

19. Differences between Labor and BIA Unemployment rates Source: Data compiled by MT Dept. of Labor, Research and Analysis based on American Community Survey micro data from 2009-2011 available through data ferret. Percentages are of full civilian population.

20. Labor Force Participation on Reservation Areas Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011. Figures below labels are total labor force.

21. 2011 Average Annual Wage by Geography 348 Employed 1,021 Employed 2,241 Employed 1,428 Employed 2,721 Employed 422,726 Employed 7,970 Employed 3,231 Employed Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, plus reservation data by Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry

22. Montana Average Annual Wages Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI

23. Montana Average Annual Wages WAGE GROWTH 2nd Fastest Private Wage Growth Last Year 47thHighest Average Annual Wage 41st Hourly Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI. 4th and 2rd determined by 2012 QCEW, 41st by Occupational Employment Statistics, 2012.

24. Take Away Points • Montana’s economy is growing quickly, • Faster income growth, • Faster job growth, • Faster wage growth, and • Lower unemployment than the nation. • But we have a long way to go. • What are we doing right? • What do we need to work on? • How are we different from other state’s economies?

25. Comparative Industry Private Employment: U.S. and Montana MT US Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 Private Employers only.

26. Employment by Industry Ag and Mining Ag and Mining Transportation Transportation Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011.

27. iClicker Question What industry do you represent? • Wholesale or retail trade • Government • Healthcare • Education • Other

28. Location and Count of American Indian Owned Businesses

29. Comparison to Other States American Indian and Alaska Native Share of Population SD = 10.0% MT = 7.8% ND = 6.2% WY = 3.8% ID = 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 0.8% Source: 2007-2011 American Community Survey

30. Take Away Points • Montana and Reservations are more concentrated in Government than the U.S. • Montana has a higher level of American Indian-owned firms than other states, but not yet proportional to population. • Each reservation has a different industry mix – regional differences are important to economic planning. • What does economic theory say about economic development?

31. Economic Concept Map • Assets and Savings • Machines and Plants • Productive Equipment • Process that combines Labor, Capital, and Inputs • Work smarter, not harder • Efficiency of production • Workers • Human Capital • Education and Training • Other inputs needed to produce a firms output

32. Role of Capital in Economy • Equipment needed to produce output. • Replace deteriorating equipment. • Enhance worker productivity by upgrading equipment.

33. Role of Capital in Economy • Equipment needed to produce output. • Replace deteriorating equipment. • Enhance worker productivity by upgrading equipment. • Provide enhanced ability to spend in the future. • Assets to borrow against. • Savings for future consumption. Increase Current Production Increase Potential Production

34. How to Increase Capital • Increase Dollars Entering Economy • Exports

35. Montana Foreign Exports Mining, Metals, and Chemical Manufacturing 16% Source: Exports including services from the Brookings-Rockefeller Project on State and Metropolitan Innovation.

36. How to Increase Capital • Increase Dollars Entering Economy • Exports • Retain Dollars Within Community • Develop local businesses to provide goods and services

37. Retaining Dollars Within Community Exports $164 M $80 M $162 M $80 M $313 M $156 M Exports $105 M Source: Dollar figures represent expenditures made on reservations by government institutions, including funds raised by federal, state, nonprofit, and earned income sources. Preliminary data compiled by the Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, FY2009.

38. Retaining Dollars Within Community Money Leaves $80 M Retained Money Recirculates to Create Jobs Exports Source: Preliminary data compiled by the Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, FY2009.

39. How to Increase Capital • Increase Dollars Entering Economy • Exports • Retain Dollars Within Community • Develop local businesses to provide goods and services • Increase Savings Rates • Invest funds in productive ways to build asset base and grow output

40. Importance of Saving and Capital Stock Solow Economic Growth Model More Output High Savings = High Output Economic Growth Not Possible without Investment OUTPUT Low Savings = Low Output Less Output Less Savings and Investment More Savings and Investment Savings and Investment

41. Other Variables also Important Solow Economic Growth Model More Output OUTPUT • Growth Path Can Shift Upwards by: • Increasing population growth rates (more labor) • Improving technology • Improving institutions (reduced costs) Less Output Less Savings and Investment More Savings and Investment Savings and Investment

42. How to Increase Capital • Increase Dollars Entering Economy • Exports • Retain Dollars Within Community • Develop local businesses to provide goods and services • Increase Savings Rates • Invest funds in productive ways to build asset base and grow output • Improve Access to Financing • Legal system improvement • Community banks or other financial institutions

43. Access to Financing

44. Economic Development Concept Map

45. iClicker Question What aspect of economic development is most important? • Reducing transportation costs • Increasing capital availability • Improving our labor force • Improving innovation and technology diffusion • Other

46. Full Report Available atwww.lmi.mt.gov Barbara Wagner, Chief Economist Montana Department of Labor and Industry 406-444-5474 bwagner@mt.gov