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The Political Economy of Population: Trade, Treaties, and the Fertility Transition

The Political Economy of Population: Trade, Treaties, and the Fertility Transition. John A. Doces Bucknell University International Political Economy Society Annual Conference 2009. Why has fertility fallen?. My answer. Rise of international trade

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The Political Economy of Population: Trade, Treaties, and the Fertility Transition

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  1. The Political Economy of Population:Trade, Treaties, and the Fertility Transition John A. Doces Bucknell University International Political Economy Society Annual Conference 2009

  2. Why has fertility fallen?

  3. My answer • Rise of international trade • Ratification of the U.N.’s Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW)

  4. Portugal

  5. The demographic transition

  6. The fertility transition • Biological component • age of menstruation • Social component • institutions • economic development • cultural values • modernization

  7. Determinants of the fertility transition • Infant/child mortality (demographic transition model) • Relative cohort size, The Easterlin Hypothesis • Income per person • Female literacy • Female access to education • Birth control • Abortion legalization • Age of marriage

  8. Where does fertility fit into IPE? • Central to the study of classical political economy. • Malthus • Associated with conflict/security • Associated with economic growth and development • Associated with democracy/political stability

  9. Trade and CEDAW Ratification • Gray et al. (IO 2006) • TSCS analysis • international trade and ratification are associated with women’s empowerment • Richards and Gelleny (ISQ 2007) • TSCS analysis • international trade improves women’s status

  10. A simple logic International Trade CEDAW ratification If ratification empowers women then it should be inversely associated with fertility. • If trade empowers women then it should be inversely associated with fertility. • Galor and Mountford (2008), in a cross-section analysis of the OECD, find international trade is inversely associated with fertility.

  11. Theory • I build a supply-demand framework of fertility based on Easterlin’s (1985, 2001) work. • Components • demand for children • potential supply of children • regulation costs

  12. Theory

  13. Theory:International Trade • **Decreases price of substitute goods** • Also, • increases women’s employment opportunities • increases household’s real income • encourages urbanization • Therefore, trade reduces demand for children

  14. Theory:CEDAW Ratification • Increases female literacy • Earlier onset of the mortality revolution • Thus, potential supply begins to increase at an earlier point in time

  15. Theory

  16. Hypotheses • International trade is inversely associated with fertility • CEDAW ratification is inversely associated with fertility • Trade and ratification increase the probability of the fertility transition

  17. Empirical Analysis • Time-series cross-section of the OECD from 1960 to 2002 • Dependent variables • total fertility rate • fertility transition: 1 if TFR≤2.1 and 0 otherwise • Test variables • level of trade openness • year after CEDAW ratification • Control variables • relative cohort size (-) • income per capita (-) and income per capita squared (+) • infant mortality (+) • population size (-) • abortion legalization (-) • lagged fertility (-)

  18. Summary of Empirical Results • International trade • inverse effect on fertility • direct effect on fertility transition • 50% increase in trade reduces fertility by about .12 children per woman • CEDAW ratification • inverse effect on fertility • direct effect on fertility transition • ratification reduces fertility by about .07 children per woman

  19. Summary of Empirical Results • The Easterlin hypothesis • Relative cohort size has inverse effect • Infant mortality • As predicted by the DT, directly associated with fertility • Abortion legalization • Reduces fertility and thus youth bulges • Consistent with research arguing legalization of abortion reduces crime

  20. Implications • Population growth

  21. Implications • Reconsideration of the liberal peace thesis • more trade means less population pressure/s and less conflict • Women’s empowerment • open trade and CEDAW ratification (and similar policy) are good ideas for women’s empowerment • Developing world? • UN’s population predictions for sub-Saharan Africa (2050): • low-variant fertility: 1.5 billion • medium-variant fertility: 1.75 billion • high-variant fertility: 2.0 billion

  22. Thank you • Questions?

  23. Appendix: Regression Results

  24. Appendix: Fixed-Effects

  25. Appendix: Fertility Transition

  26. Appendix: Literature Citations • Conflict • Caprioli 2000, 2003, 2005; Caprioli and Boyer 2001; Eichenburg 2003; Melander 2005a, 2005b; Shapiro and Mahajan 1986. • Economic growth • Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1999; Bloom and Williamson 1998; Carter and Sutch 2003; Easterlin and Crimmins 1985, 2001; Ray 1998; Simon 1998; Weil 2005. • Democracy/political stability • Feng et al. 1999, 2000; Przeworski et al. 2000

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