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NASA VISION QUEST 2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE

NASA VISION QUEST 2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE. LEAD: DAVID RIND (NASA/GISS) C0-LEAD: RICHARD SOMERVILLE (UCSD) TEAM MEMBERS PETER GLEICK (PAC INST) CHRIS MILLY (USGS) DANIEL HILLEL (UMASS) CYNTHIA ROSENZWEIG (NASA/GISS) CHRIS KUMMEROW (CSU) WALEED ABDALATI (NASA/HQTR).

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NASA VISION QUEST 2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE

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  1. NASA VISION QUEST2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE LEAD: DAVID RIND (NASA/GISS) C0-LEAD: RICHARD SOMERVILLE (UCSD) TEAM MEMBERS PETER GLEICK (PAC INST) CHRIS MILLY (USGS) DANIEL HILLEL (UMASS) CYNTHIA ROSENZWEIG (NASA/GISS) CHRIS KUMMEROW (CSU) WALEED ABDALATI (NASA/HQTR) Long Term Climate

  2. WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF WATER RESOURCES, IN THE U. S. AND THE WORLD? Water is an essential resource whose disruption will impact the economy, the quality of human life, and the fate of the environment for both natural and managed ecosystems. Long Term Climate

  3. POPULATION PRESSURE ALREADY PRODUCES WATER PROBLEMS • ALREADY SUFFERING: Algeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Tunisia and many in the Middle East • WILL LIKELY SUFFER: Egypt, South Africa, Iran, Somalia and Ethiopia, among others. • IN THE U.S.: Conflicts among states in the SW, SE, NE Long Term Climate

  4. Scenes like these from Africa and Afghanistan may become more common in the future. Afghanistan Somalia West Africa Kenya Long Term Climate

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE WILL FURTHER ALTER WATER AVAILABILITY E.G., INCREASED EVAPORATION, HEAVIER RAINFALL, MELTING GLACIERS Long Term Climate

  6. Dust Bowl Analogs? 1 9 3 1 1761-1768 1 7 5 5 1 8 1 5 1 7 0 3 1 6 4 5 Composite maps of actual and tree-ring reconstructed “Dust Bowl” years (a-b) and four possible past analogs (c-f) since A.D. 1500. None of the past analogs are as severe as the 20th Century event, and only one wet inverse of the “Dust Bowl” (right plot) is suggested in the data. Source: Cook, Purdy, and Gatewood, 2001 Long Term Climate

  7. L O N G - T E R M 2 1 0 0 Frequency of severe drought (occurring once every 20 years) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the 2xCO2 climate. Results are from the NASA/GISS model (left) as well as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) Model (right). For the current climate (not shown), all the grid boxes are green (5%); for the future climate, the frequency of occurrence increases dramatically, as can also be seen by the graph of percentage occurrences of severe drought (bottom) in the two models.

  8. WATER RESOURCE CHANGES WILL IMPACT SOCIETY • ENERGY • POPULATED FLOOD PLAINS • HEALTH IN AN AGING POPULATION • AGRICULTURE • WATER EXTREMES MAKE THINGS WORSE Long Term Climate

  9. Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) BW 7 Karl et al. 1996 KARL ET AL., 1996 Long Term Climate

  10. CURRENT STATUS • Need global hydrologic components on a local level • Predicting areas at risk is currently impossible • Climate models disagree • Impact models disagree with climate models Long Term Climate

  11. Soil moisture change projections are uncertain. Long Term Climate

  12. Without the optimistic assumption of full CO2 fertilization (bottom) even the U.S. suffers from the effect of water stress on agricultural production (top), but 3rd World countries are most affected. Source: Rosenzweig and Parry 1992 Long Term Climate

  13. WHY NASA? • A GLOBAL PROBLEM • HYDROLOGIC CYCLE GLOBALLY CONNECTED (E.G., EL NINO) • IMPACTS ARE GLOBAL AND AFFECT U.S. • GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITIES • REQUIRES A GLOBAL SOLUTION • REMOTE SENSING Long Term Climate

  14. S H O R T - T E R M E V E N T S Long Term Climate

  15. GPM: Constellation of satellites including a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer and a radar system for measuring rainfall. Long Term Climate

  16. HOW WOULD NASA’S OBSERVATIONS BE USED? • Improve understanding of current hydrologic cycle and processes • Improve climate models • Assess progress in prediction by comparing models and observed trends Long Term Climate

  17. BUT NOT ONLY NASA... • NEED A GROUND BASED NETWORK (INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION) • REMOTE SENSING PROVIDES AREA-AVERAGING TO LOCAL OBSERVATIONS • VALIDATES REMOTE SENSING RETRIEVALS • OTHER U.S. AGENCIES • USGS • NOAA • ON-GOING PROGRAMS • GEWEX • WCP-WATER Long Term Climate

  18. Long Term Climate

  19. WHAT ARE THE CHIEF NEEDS? • OBSERVATIONS • Integrated soil moisture to rooting depth - the holy grail • Long-term monitoring • MODELS • Accurate depiction of future temperature gradients - governs precipitation Long Term Climate

  20. Model estimates of potential water storage must be evaluated. Long Term Climate

  21. PRACTICAL BENEFITS • Understanding of current water cycle • Improved water management • Better understanding of geopolitical implications of climate change • Better assessment of cost/benefit ratios for policy options Long Term Climate

  22. LONG TERM CLIMATE RESEARCH IS SYNERGISTIC WITH OTHER NASA VISION QUEST TOPICS • SEA LEVEL RISE • HURRICANES • BIODIVERSITY • SUBSEASONAL WEATHER PREDICTORS Long Term Climate

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