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The Diversionary Theory of War

The Diversionary Theory of War. Ostrom and Job. Research Question. What factors explain when leaders use force for political purposes? Leaders’ have a desire to stay in office When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive

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The Diversionary Theory of War

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  1. The Diversionary Theory of War Ostrom and Job

  2. Research Question What factors explain when leaders use force for political purposes? • Leaders’ have a desire to stay in office • When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive • A leader’s approval increases following a use of military force—rally around the flag effect

  3. Diversionary behavior • Leaders use force to divert attention away from domestic turmoil • Aspects of domestic turmoil include internal conflict (protests, riots, etc.) and economic woes (high inflation, etc.) • Political incentives: approval, elections

  4. Ostrom and Job’s Study Cybernetic Decision-making Model • Leaders consider a limited set of critical factors (unlike rational choice) • U.S. Presidents share three goals (1948-1976) • A preference for action • Anti-communism • Containment of the USSR

  5. Environments the President monitors • International: level of international tension (+), strategic balance (-), war involvement (-) • Domestic: public attitude toward international tension (-) and strategic balance (+), public aversion to war (-), economic misery (+) • Political: Public approval (+), lack of political success (+), elections (+)

  6. Findings • The Political environment has the greatest impact on the decision to use force. • U.S. Presidents are more likely to use force when their overall approval is high. • Kennedy was the most likely to use force, and Truman the least likely

  7. Potential Problems • No consideration of opportunity to use force (such as rivalry) • Limited time frame • Truncation of events (looking at only major uses of force) • Are uses of force related over time?

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