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Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774)

Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774). Swiss Sustainable Socio-Economic Development 1990 – 2007 Liam T. Foran Cristian Terry Maria Stoll 4 December 2009. Swiss Socio-Economic Development 1990 - 2007.

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Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774)

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  1. Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (E774) Swiss Sustainable Socio-Economic Development 1990 – 2007 Liam T. Foran Cristian Terry Maria Stoll 4 December 2009

  2. Swiss Socio-Economic Development 1990 - 2007 • Hypothesis; There is sustainable improvement over the two periods 1990 - 1999 & 2000 - 2007. • Data Set; Swiss Socio-Economic Data ‘09 • Validity of Data; Collection? • Reliability; Missing Obs & Too few observations • Indicators; Human Development Index & Sustainability Measures QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  3. Swiss Sustainabale Socio-Economic Development Indicators • i) Economic; Income (GDP per capita) and unemployment • ii) Social ; Health Services, Life expectancy, Infant Mortality and Human Resources • iii) Environment; GDP per unit of energy use, CO2 emissions and Trend in breeding bird populations in Switzerland. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  4. Rich Already and Getting Richer QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  5. Living longer and less babies dying QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  6. Greening QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  7. Statistical techniques • Describing center; Mean • Describing variability; std dev. • Two sample test; independent student test • Correlation; Pearson co-efficient, scatter plot, Strength of Relationship • Regression; We used Ordinary Least Squares” (OLS) which is based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE): for Direction of Relationship QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  8. Comparing Means QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  9. Testing our Hypothesis for Significance • Income , life expectancy  knowledge  and biodiversity  GDP per unit of energy use  significant • Child mortality  C02 emissions  GDP per unit of energy use significant • Unemployment  not significant QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  10. Correlation: Income and Indicators Significant Correlation in Second Period, and over total period QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  11. Simple Regression with Income QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  12. Multiple Regression with Life Exp. Note, collinearity problem between life exp and infant mort. Errors in Models. Outliers, homoscedascity. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  13. Conclusions • Our Results, there has been a significant sustainable socio-economic development over two periods. • What’s new about your approach? Including sustainability measures with HDI to asses longevity of socio-economic development. • GDP alone is not a universal salve. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

  14. Future work • Improving Regression Models • Great to look at the numbers but what about external factors (financial crisis), technology increases, policies, eating habits, disease, consumption habits, natural phenomena • Identifying the possible areas of future research, The link between carbon intensity of production, where does the energy come from etc. • Bigger Data Set, get out there and collect. QM_MDEV_E774(2009)

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