中國大戰略 The Grand Strategy of China

1. 中國大戰略 The Grand Strategy of China 第二篇 全球化(上) 全球化下的中美互動

2. Part I: Synopsis of Power • Reference: “The Paradox of American Power” by Joseph S. Nye Jr • The embedded concept in “Power” • Power is the ability to effect outcomes you want,and to change,if necessary the behavior of others so as to make it happening. • Two kinds of Power • Hard Power • Soft Power

3. Hard (Command) Power • Factors that contribute to hard Power • Population • Territory • Natural Resources • Economical Strength • Military Forces • Political Stability • Like playing in high stack Poker Game; holding high cards may not win,if you: • play the hand poorly • fall victim to bluff and/or deception • E.g. pre-WW II, Hitler; Pearl Harbor

4. Test of Power • Historically, test of power is reflected in the capabilities to wage wars • 17-18th Centuries (Agrarian Society): population -> tax base and foot soldiers • 19th Century: industry growth-> power base • Britain: Started the Industrial Revolution • Germany: Added efficient Administration & infrastructure • 20th Century: industrial might Russia & U.S. rose as bipolar Superpowers • Power Base: Nuclear Arsenals and ICBM • Yet, Nationalism rises world-wide • Meanwhile, societal changes take place within Great Powers

5. What Triggers Wars • Rise of “new” Great Power(s) -> anxiety has seen to precipitate military crises • For examples, the onset of WW I owed much to the rise of Kaiser’s Germany and the fear which caused in Britain. • New Risk: the rise of China and the fear which caused in U.S. • Wars are usually the results of miss-trust and miss-communication; maximizing bilateral communication can reduce chance of military confrontation

6. Soft Power • Soft Power: getting other to want what you want; co-opts people instead of coerces them • ability to set political agenda in way that shapes the preference of others • of intangible nature • cost less to lead – founded on culture, ideology, and institution • Britain Capitalism • free trade; gold as trade standard • American Capitalism • institutionalized: World Bank, IMF, WTO, and others • U.S. dollar as trade standard; extended credit

7. Power in the 21th Century • There Dimensional Power Structure • 1st Dimension: Military Might • 2nd Dimension: Economic Strength • 3rd Dimension: Soft Power • Soft Power relies on Three Layers of Information System • 1st layer: general flow of public information, such as news and statistics • 2nd layer: internal information management • 3rd layer: intelligent information gathering => knowledge of competitors’ game plans

8. Part II: A future Worth Creating • Reference: “The Pentagon’s New Map” by Thomas P.M. Barnett • The world is divided in two camps: • The Functioning Core: states open to free trade and connected through globalization • 1st-tier: industrialized old cores: U.S. Euro, Japan, etc. • 2nd-tier: emerging new cores: China, India, Brazil,S. Koran, etc. • Non-integrating Gap: states isolated themselves from international flows of information • Caribbean Rim, Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, SW Asia, and most of SE Asia • harbor terrorism • including rogue states: (Iraq), N. Koran ,Iran, and Syria

9. MAD: Mutual Assured Destruction • New Security Setting • Nuclear Weapons aren’t for using, but for having them • Effectively ends direct wars between great powers • However, • In 1995, China was “theorized” as the “THREAT” of the future • notion reinforced when China fired missiles over Taiwan • China posted threats trying to influence Taiwan 1996 Election had back fired => U.S. marked China as the near-peer competitor

10. U.S. the sole Global Naval Power • U.S.won the trust of small or smaller nations as the protector than invader • change agenda from “achieving the command of the sea to “using the command of sea” • China is suspected, neutralized greatly over recent diplomatic efforts,by neighbors as a threat in the future • Pentagon old-times “theorized” China may one day build a navy that challenges to U.S. sole domination • Wall Street strategists see no military threat from China, since China has open to globalization

11. Global War Inter-States War Transnational Terrorism System Level Threat State Level Threat (e.g. Iraq -> Kuwait) Failing State Threat (e.g. 911) Evil Empire Deny Access Disconnected States Asymmetrical Warfare War against individuals Transnational Terrorism Globalization as the force to eliminate TT

12. Part III中美互动 • 1989 post Tinanmen Square Incident • China chose to further its 改革开放 policy, establishing legal & economy “Rule Sets” • Induced an influx of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) • U.S. now becomes tolerant of “Single Party Domination,”新,马,日,韩 • Wall Street: “China is not the problem, prize is”

13. Everybody Plays Politics • War is an extension of Politics • So long as political means prevail, wars are not necessary nor desirable • MAD leaves great powers no option but play politics • Globalization has evolved • Globalization is a condition defined by Mutually Assured Dependence (also MAD) • Globalization is now the dynamics which drives world trades, thereby economics, thereby politics • thereby, the Rules of War and Peace • Globalization’s ultimate goal – the end of war as we know it.

14. Who Makes the Rules • In U.S., three groups of think tanks who work on the Game Plans/War Games • National Security Policymakers • old timer: see China as a near-peer competitor • new breed: see no reality in China being a threat in foreseeable future • Wall Street Heavyweights • see China as the fast-growing emerging Market that will soon exceed U.S. in economic size • Academic Experts • U.S.will consult with G7 and get consensus • “G7 + China” Next?

15. Some get it and some don’t • Not every state, neither everyone, benefits from Globalization • not unless you have an able government – Hurray to 朱鎔基 and his great wisdom to embrace WTO • not unless you are big enough in size, sufficient to buffer the consequential transitions • not if you are at the bottom of the pyramid • Old Pillars: U.S., west Europe, and Japan • New Pillars: China, India, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, S. Korea, Russia • there are some fights between the two camps: AIDS vs. anthrax • not until there is global energy equality, but that is another story

16. Us against Them • Little people vs. big Corporate; have-not vs.have; developing vs.industrial • How do we know we can trust them? • the economy of scale pays dividends • it is a fair play found on mutual dependency, e.g. out-sourcing vs. financing U.S. trade deficit • more rules (economic rule set,political rule set, and security rule set) means less wars • How do they know they can trust us? • once you are connected, you are hooked

17. $ Profit Technology Facility & Equipment initial production Capital $ mass production Market Jobs Infra-structure Demand stimuli Neo-capitalism Technology mass production Market Jobs

18. The Flow of MoneyWhy we won’t be going to war with China • “New Rule Sets” project’s 3 Workshops • “energy” -- Asia’s getta have it (2x in 20 yrs) • “opportunity” -- Who’s gonna pony up the money • “crime” of all environmental damage that will be • Two camps of participants • Pentagon strategists dreamed of long distance push button missile wars with China • Wall Street executives fretted over long-term FDI triggering rule-set wars with China • It’s Wall Street who has the final Say. • China needs to 2x its energy consumption in a generation, and need Wall Street’s help to get the energy she needs

19. A Funny Poker Game • A poker game where all players peek • no hidden agenda; no hidden rules • communication to displace confrontation-- it pays to let the other side know what is on your hold, for it could cost more to play it out • compromise will incur win-win • Some of Barnett’s Predictions: • 2010: U.S. and China partner managing global stability; China => U.S. diplomatic near-peer • 2015: NAFTA • 2020: Asia version of NATO • 2050: U.S. adds a dozen new states

20. Horizontal Thinking - A Footnote • “One needs to think horizontally, seeing history for what it was, and future for what it will be”-- Thomas Barnett • “One needs to keep thewillingness to follow what the data is telling you, not default to let your memory does your thinking”-- 石子

21. The End