Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA

1. Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th -17th October 2008 Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Annele Eerola VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ian Miles University of Manchester, UK

2. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contents Outlines of the presentation • Multiple faces of FTA • - multiple contexts and objectives • - method developers, general FTA principles • Making sense of FTA methods and tools • - classification schemes • - examples of methods and tools • Contribution of the various methods and tools • - for the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation • - for the various phases of the FTA process • Selecting methods and designing the process • - general guidelines • - important design dimensions • - assessing quality • Directions for further research • - implications for Theme 1 parallel sessions

3. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Multiple contexts and objectives (1) • National and regional foresight programmes (Miles et al, 2008) • creating shared understandings among the societal key actors • facilitating dynamism, innovation and competitiveness • developing prospective intelligence for policy-making and strategies • Recent considerations: • from S&T policy focus towards a more horizontal policy view • from technology focus to broad-scope societal foresight • from expert consultation to participatory approaches involving • a wide pool of stakeholders

4. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Multiple contexts and objectives (2) • Technology Assessment(Johnston, 2008; Rader & Porter, 2008) • assessing the potential impacts of emerging new technologies • facilitating sound technological developments • providing input for legislative policy options • serving national parliaments and governmental bodies at national, • regional and municipal levels • US OTA (1974-1995), parliamentary TA & EP STOA, and Danish • Board of Technology as examples • Recent considerations: • balanced consideration of positive and negative impacts • balanced consideration of economic, societal, environmental and • ethical perspectives • external expert analysis vs. constructive technology assessment

5. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Multiple contexts and objectives (3) • Industrial foresight and roadmapping (Cuhls & Johnston, 2008) • examining development drivers and challenges at industry and • company-level • supporting strategic decision making, innovation and • competitiveness • creating shared visions and commitment among the key actors • Recent considerations: • balanced consideration of technology-push vs. demand pull issues • consideration of the entire value chain, incl. end-users • broadening the meaning of 'technology' (services, business models • and organisational issues included) • corporate social responsibility

6. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Developers of methods and tools • A variety of epistemic communities have influenced the methodological development of FTA, including • innovation studies • technology foresight • technology assessment • futures research • technology forecasting • business forecasting & roadmapping • (see e.g. Johnston, 2008; Miles, 2008) • The biennial FTA conferences have provided a new opportunity for mutual learning and exchange of experiences since 2004

7. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Some general FTA principles can be defined (Cagnin & Keenan, 2008) • Future-orientation • Participation • Evidence-based • Multidisciplinarity • Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources • Action orientation

8. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Types of methods and tools Various classification schemes • The previous two FTA conferences have documented a • wide variety of methods and tools contributing to FTA • A fresh overview can also be found in The Handbook of • Technology Foresight (ed. by Georghiou et al, 2008) • In these contexts, the various methods and tools have been classified by • type of technique: qualitative vs. quantitative/semi-quantitative • type of approach: exploratory vs. normative • type of knowledge source: expertise-interaction/creativity-evidence • (see e.g. Popper, 2008)

9. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Types of methods and tools Examples of qualitative methods in use • Backcasting • Brainstorming • Expert panels, citizens panels, conferences, workshops • Essays, scenario writing • SWOT analysis • Interviews • Literature reviews • Morphological analysis • Relevance trees, logic charts • Role play, acting • Environmental scanning, weak signals • Science fictioning, wildcards, genius forecasting

10. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Types of methods and tools Examples of semi-quantitative & quantitative methods in use • Critical & key technologies • Delphi panels & questionnaires • Gaming-simulation • Multicriteria analysis, quantitative scenarios • Polling & voting • Roadmapping, benchmarking • System analysis, structural analysis • Cross-impact analysis • Patent analysis, bibliometrics • Indicators and time series analysis • Trend extrapolation • Modelling

11. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)

12. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contribution of methods and tools When and how do methods and tools contribute • Potential contribution of various methods and tools has been considered • for different modes of knowledge conversion in the • dynamic process of shared knowledge creation • socialization, externalisation, combination, internalization • (Nonaka, 1994; Eerola & Väyrynen, 2002; Eerola & Jørgensen, 2008) • for different phases of FTA processes • systemicframework for methods (Saritas, 2006) • pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action, renewal • (Miles, 2002/Popper, 2006)

13. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contribution of methods and tools FTA as a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation ( Eerola et al, 2002, 2008; SECI by Nonaka, 1994)

14. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)

15. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006) • Qualitative methods • Methods / ActivitiesPre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewal foresight ment • 1 Backcasting Qualitative 50% 50% *) • 2 Brainstorming Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10% • 3 Citizens panels Qualitative 10% 40% 40% 10% • 4 Conferences / workshops 10%Qualitat10%iv 40% 20% 20% • 5 Essays / Scenario writing 10%Qualitative 70% 10% 10% • 6 Expert panels Qualitative 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% • 7 Genius forecasting Qualitative 90% 10% • 8 Interviews Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10% • 9 Literature review Qualitative 70% 30% • 10 Morphological analysis Qualitative 50% 50% • 11 Relevance trees / logic charts 10%Qualitative 40% 40% 10% • 12 Role play / Acting Qualitative 50% 50% • 13 Scanning Qualitative 50% 10% 30% 10% • 14 Scenario workshops Qualitative 70% 30% • 15 Science fictioning Qualitative 100% • 16 SWOT analysis Qualitative 20% 50% 30% • 17 Weak signals / Wildcards 10%Qualitative 50% 30% 10% • *) percentages acc. to the author's assessment

16. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006) • Quantitative & semi-quantitative methods • Methods / ActivitiesPre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewal foresight ment • 18 Critical / key technologies 10%Semi-quantitative 50% 30% 10% *) • 19 Delphi Semi-quantitative 60% 30% 10% • 20 Gaming-simulation Semi-quantitative 50% 50% • 21 Multicriteria analysis 10% 40% 40% 10% • 22 Patent analysis 100% • 23 Polling / voting 20% 30% 30% 20% • 24 Quantitative Scenarios / SMIC 90% 10% • 25 Roadmapping 10% 10% 70% 10% • 26 Stakeholders mapping 10% 20% 20% 40% 10% • 27 System / structural analysis 10% 50% 40% • 28 Benchmarking 40%20% 40% • 29 Bibliometrics 90% 10% • 30 Cross-impact Quantitative50% 50% • 31 Indicators and time series 50%Quantitative 30% 20% • 32 Modelling Quantitative 60% 40% • 33 Trend extrapolation Quantitative30% 50% 20% • *) percentages acc. to the author's assessment only

17. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Selecting methods and designing the process Some general guidelines (Rader & Porter, 2006) • Focus on the triad of Data, Theory & Methods • Use multiple methods • - blend quantitative and qualitative methods • - integrate distinct methodological contributions & multiple judgments • Consider the available time/resources when selecting methods • Formulate an explicit communication plan, taking advantage of • electronic media • Devise an explicit path to impact decision-making • Assess the quality of FTA

18. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Selecting methods and designing the process Important design dimensions (Könnölä et al, 2008) • Informative vs. instrumental outcomes • Consensual views vs. diverse future perspectives • Exclusive vs. extensive stakeholder involvement • Fixed vs. autonomous process

19. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing the quality (Rader & Porter, 2008)

20. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Directions for further research Theme 1 parallel sessions: Issues to be considered • Conceptual framing of the FTA process • Varying roles of methods & tools in FTA processes • Challenges of adaptive FTA and modular design • Accumulation of useful knowledge on methods and tools

21. Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA References Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Cuhls, K. and Johston, R. (2008). Corporate Foresight. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Eerola, A. and Väyrynen, E. (2002). Developing TF and TA Practices on the basis of European Experience. VTT Research Notes 2174, Espoo (in Finnish; abstract in English). Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008). Foresight in Nordic Countries. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Johnston, R. (2008). Historical Review of the Development of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. and Koivisto, R. (2008): Management of Foresight Portfolio - Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation. Submitted to TASM (forthcoming). Miles, I. (2008). From the Futures to Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Miles, I., Cassingena Harper, J., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M. and Popper, R. (2008). The Many Faces of Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al . Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No.1, p. 14-37. Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Rader M. & Porter, A. (2008). Fitting Future-oriented Analysis Methods to Study Types. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Ph.D. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.