1 / 0

WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

Sporting Future 2013 Melbourne Convention Centre 11 April 2013. Mega trends The Challenges and Opportunities Facing Sport in The Future. Phil Ruthven, Chairman. WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER. Topics. 1. The Role Of Sport 2. Australia in the 21 st Century 3. Sport Participation

dunne
Download Presentation

WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Sporting Future 2013 Melbourne Convention Centre 11 April 2013 Mega trends The Challenges and Opportunities Facing Sport in The Future Phil Ruthven, Chairman WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
  2. Topics 1. The Role Of Sport 2. Australia in the 21st Century 3. Sport Participation 4. Money in Sport 5. Household Spending on Sport 6. So?
  3. 1.The Role Of Sport
  4. The Many Faces Of Sport Sport encourages health and fitness It builds relationships and team spirit It can transcend race, religion, class and income It nowadays transcends physical disabilities It is an opportunity for philanthropy and volunteerism It builds international understanding & friendships It encourages competition (personal, inter-personal , inter-team) It replaces wars and conflicts, with peace (as does trade) It is fun in its many forms It is an activity that can pick up the disadvantaged For several hundred thousands it is a career & income
  5. 2.Australia In The 21st Century
  6. Some Economic Perspective
  7. World’s 30 Largest Economies2012 (E) Argentina 0.9% Netherlands 0.9% Saudi Arabia 0.9% Thailand 0.8% S. Africa 0.7% Egypt 0.6% Pakistan 0.6% Colombia 0.6% Malaysia 0.6% Nigeria 0.5% Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms Rest of World (200 nations) 15.1% 21 - 30th Nations 7.1% 18.8% USA 11th – 20th Nations14.9% 15.4% China France Italy Russia India UK Brazil Japan Germany 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 5.8% 2.9% 3.8% 3.0% 5.5% Mexico 2.1% S. Korea 2.0% Canada 1.7% Spain 1.7% Indonesia 1.5% Turkey 1.3% Australia 1.2% 17th Iran 1.2% Taiwan 1.1% Poland 1.0% World’s 228 nations US$ 82.8 trillion IMF/IBISWorld 23/08/12
  8. The World’s Economic Regions In 2012Share of World GDP (ppp basis) Eastern Europe 4.0% W&C Europe 20.7% North America 22.5% Indian S-C 7.0% ME 5.5% Asia Pacific 29.7% Africa 4.0% C&S America 6.6% 2012 World GDP, $US 82.8 trillion IMF/IBISWorld 29/09/12
  9. Global Change As 2010 began: the Asia Century had arrived (Asia Pacific + Indian subcontinent), supplanting the size of the USA that had supplanted the British Empire a century earlier By 2016: India has overtaken Japan’s economy (in 2012!); China has overtaken the USA. Brazil has overtaken the UK and French economies Mexico and South Korea have overtaken Italy Indonesia overtakes Australia (in 2012),Canada, Spain By 2025, or earlier: The Asia Pacific region is not only bigger than North America (USA, Canada, Mexico) and W&C Europe (mainly the EU) as it is already, but is bigger than both of them
  10. Has the Sports Industry become sufficiently ethnic- diversified, given this reality? Probably not nearly enough.The Asianisation of Australia’s society, attitudes and economy demands we shed any narrow UK or Euro-centric habits (that are often confused with values).
  11. Asia Pacific RegionGDPppp terms2012 Singapore 1.3% Vietnam 1.3% NZ 0.5% Myanmar 0.4% Cambodia 0.1% Laos 0.1% PNG 0.1% Other 0.1% Philippines 1.7% Others 3.9% Thailand 2.6% Malaysia 1.9% Australia 3.9% Indonesia 4.9% 50.4%China *Korea6.8% Japan 18.7% Taiwan HK 3.7% 1.5% *North Korea 0.2% South Korea 6.6% 25+ nations $US 24.6 trillion GDP (ppp terms) Wikipedia/IBISWorld 29/09/12
  12. Australia’s Economic Growth Annual real GDP growth (%) progressed in quarters to December 2012(and forecast to September 2018) Average long business cycle is 34 quarters (81/2 years) Forecast 36 qtrs. 34 qtrs 34 qtrs 33 qtrs 38 qtrs 33 qtrs? 36 qtrs ? Years, ended June Source: IBISWorld: 08/03/13
  13. Some Social Perspective
  14. Our Changing Society Rise of virtual shopping Living with ICT The Internet/ information age Increasing knowledge Increasing financial literacy New entertainment & sports Electronic “guardian angels” Working differently New industries/ occupations Changing spirituality Outlawing discrimination Changing politics (ideologies) Ecological sensitivity Living longer More generations co-existing Living with more leisure Smaller/different households Moving to coast and equator Changing ethnic mix (Eurasian) New tribalism (less local) A stabilisingdivorce rate Fast rising incomes & wealth Apartment living rising Home leasing on the rise More spending on services Outsourcing tasks and chores
  15. Australian Population1850-2051 Million 37.8 Forecasts (IBISWorld) 33.4 29.3 25.6 22.7 Year, ended June
  16. Australia’s Broad Geographic Shift% of total 1901 2001 2051(F) Coastal Capital Cities Rural (cities >30,000 ) Rural(towns & shires) 32% 64% 66% Source: ABS & IBISWorld
  17. Living Longer Life Expectancy And The Retirement Age of Male Australians Who would want to be retired for 30+ years in 2100; and could the nation afford it? Rising Retirement Age Female life expectancy Rising Formal Education Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics, IBISWorld
  18. Australia’s Age Distribution1866-2051 80+ 65+ 60-64 55-59 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Source: ABS B Projections 10/03/10
  19. So what is old? At 65 years of age: in 1800, you were dead 27 years ago. in 1900, you were dead 12 years ago; in 2000, you had 12-15 years to go; in 2100, you may be two-thirds through your life! We need to be very careful about what an “ageing society” or the “greying of Australia’” really means. Even at 70 years of age many will still be working, probably part-time, and be fit and healthy. One in four children born in 2001 are expected to live to a hundred; more if female. We need to keep raising the age definition of “old”
  20. Our many Generations In F2013 Federation (>88 years) 1.0% Silents 71-88 years Gen Zers (<13years) 1.2% Baby Boomers 48-70 years 8.1% 16.4% “old fashioneds” “the thoughtfuls” 26.0% Net Generation (Y) 13-31 years 26.1% “spoilt rottens” 23.4% “free-rangers” Generation X 32—47 years “quiet achievers” Generational Types Civics Adaptives Idealists Reactives 23.2 million persons IBISWorld 06/04/13
  21. 3.Sport Participation
  22. Work And Leisure Over Time Leisure Time Education Sleep Unpaid work Travel to work PaId work But is sport getting a good share of this increasing leisure time? 46% 44% 43% 32% 29% 27% 23% 10.4% 12.4% 9.1% 21.8% 23.7% 15.6% 19.8% Year born
  23. Australians’ TimeExpenditureAdults, working week Travel to work 1% Sleeping34.7% Child care Shopping Leisure & Recreation Education Eating & Drinking Other 1.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% 5.4% 16.7% Hygiene & Health Care Volunteer work 0.8% Social Interaction But is sport getting a proper share of this increasing leisure time, or losing it? IBISWorld 25/01/12
  24. Sport & Physical Recreation ParticipationBy Age Group 79.1% 69.5% 68.7% 65.1% 64.2% 61.0% 48.2% Age cohort
  25. Type of Activity (15+ aged Australians) Males Females Source: ABS 12/06/12
  26. Important Participation TrendsCSIRO Sports Megatrends Report Personalised sport for health and fitness Market pressures and new business models The rise of lifestyle sports Economic growth and Asian sports development Overseas health, community and aid objectives Demographic, generational and cultural change
  27. 4.Money In Sport
  28. Sport is Big Business in Australia Over 330, 000 people (excluding volunteers) participate in the inputs, activities, socialising and derivatives(betting, media etc) of sport, over and above the direct participation of sportspeople, exercisers/ spectators. Revenue in 2012/13 is forecast to be $49.7 billion (or $66.3 billion with an imputed value for volunteerism). This will be 1.2% of the nation’s $4.3 trillion revenue and the value added contribution will be 2.0% of the nation’s $1.5 trillion GDP Real growth is forecast at around 2.7% pa over the 5 years to 2018-19
  29. Yet, most sports establishments have an annual revenue of around half that of a 7-Eleven store. So it is basically an industry of very small businesses, with very little economies-of-scale, kept alive by volunteerism.And the activities part of this big industry has a revenue of $7.1 billion or just one-seventh of all the sports-related revenue.
  30. But yes, there are some big players(revenue based, F2012) Tabcorp $ 1.6 billion Tatts Group $ 0.7 billion WATAB $ 0.3 billion AFL $ 0.5 billion ASC $ 0.4 billion Cricket Australia $ 0.2 billion Tennis Australia <$ 0.2 billion NRL <$ 0.2 billion
  31. The Australian Sport MarketWithout volunteerism F 2013 (F) Supplies equipment manufacturing, construction Education Health Commerce: wholesaling retailing transport Sporting clubs Clubs (licensed) Racing (horses/dogs) Amusement parks Nature reserves Betting Media Conferences Derivatives 10.4% 45.3% Inputs Social30.0% 14.3% Sport Activity Facilities Administration Coaching Fitness Centres $49.7 billion (1.2% of nation’s $4.25 trillion revenue. Value added: 2.0% of GDP) Source: IBISWorld 04/04/13
  32. Australian Sport Inputs Share of total basis F2013 (F) Sports Medicine Horse farming 4.0% Sports Education 2.7% 2.4% Sports Equipment Manufacture 2.7% 7.1% Boat Manufactg (and repairs) Sports Transport (Private) 14.2% 7.7% Recreation Construction 8.5% Wholesale Sports Equipment Sports Travel Fares 9.3% 18.7% Retail Sports Clothing 6.7% Retail Sports & Camping Equipment 13.3% Retail Marine Equipment 1.6% Revenue $ 22.5 billion IBISWorld 29/03/13
  33. Australian Sport ActivityWithout Volunteers F 2013 (F) Facilities & Venues 24% Cricket 7.3% Golf 1.7% Ski Lifts 1.3% Other 2.4% 5.3% Football 3.7% Tennis 2.3% Indoor Administration 49.3% 18.3% Fitness Centres 70.0% Coaching Revenue $ 7.11 billion Source: IBISWorld 03/04/13
  34. Australian Sport SocialisingF 2013 (F) Amusement Parks 4.1% Nature Reserves & Parks 12.0% Licensed Sporting Clubs Horse & Dog Racing 13.4% 51.1% 19.4% Sport Clubs Revenue $ 15.0 billion Source: IBISWorld 28/03/13
  35. Australian Sport DerivativesF 2013 (F) Conferences/ Exhibitions 5.8% Print (news/mags) 16.1% TV (FTA & Pay) 11.8% Radio 2.3% Sports Media 30.2% 64.0% Sports Betting Revenue $ 5.2 billion Source: IBISWorld 28/03/13
  36. Adding an imputed volunteerism value
  37. The Australian Sport MarketF 2013 (F) Supplies equipment manufacturing, construction Education Health Commerce: wholesaling retailing transport Sporting clubs Clubs (licensed) Racing (horses/dogs) Amusement parks Nature reserves Betting Media Conferences Derivatives 7.8% 33.9% Inputs Social22.6% 35.7% Sport Activity 70% Volunteerism (imputed wages value) Facilities Administration Coaching Fitness Centres Volunteerism $66.3 billion (1.6% of nation’s $4.25 trillion revenue. Value added: 2.4% of GDP) Source: IBISWorld 05/04/13
  38. Australian Sport ActivityF 2013 (F) 1.7 million volunteers @ 5-6 hours/week (average) @ $37.40/hour (average for Recreation Industry F/T workers) Administration 14.8% Coaching 2.5% Fitness Centres5.5% Facilities7.2% 70.0% Volunteerism (imputed) Cricket 2.2% Football 1.6% Tennis 1.1% Indoor 0.7% Golf 0.5% Other 0.5% Ski Lifts 0.4% Revenue $ 23.7 billion Source: IBISWorld 05/04/13
  39. 5.Household Spending On Sport
  40. Australian Household ExpenditureYear to December 2012 Depreciation 5.9% Dwell/ProptyInterest 5.3%Consumer Debt Int 0.8% Unincorp. Interest 0.6% Transfers 0.5% H’Hold durables 2.8% Motor vehicles 1.8%Other 0.7% Taxes (& social contributions) Savings 7.2% Capital Related 5.4%Durables 14.0% 13.1% Fin. & Ins. Serv. 7.6% 16.3%Non-durables Rent1 13.0% Health Hospitality Other Services Education Mobility 6.5% (& other dwelling costs) 3.9% 2.8% 2.3% 3.5% Entertainment (Gambling 3.4%) 4.4% Communicns. 1.5%Fares 2.0% Food 6.4% Alc.& Tobacco 2.2%Clothing 2.0% Utilities 1.7% Veh. Operation 3.0% Other 1.0% Note: 1 includes imputed rent (home ownership) $ 1287 billion ($143.000 per household) Source: ABS5206/IBISWorld
  41. Changing Household Expenditure% of total basis 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 Taxes (direct) Non-durables Durables Health & Education Hospitality Entertainment/Recn Communications/fares Other services Rent Finance & Ins Serv Capital Related Savings $ billions
  42. Household Outsourcing In The New Age1F2012 (E) Entertainment Recreation Gambling Clubs Other 2 2.4% Maintenance/Cleaning 3.5% Hair/beauty1.4% Child Care3.4% Entertainment & Recreation 28.3% Health Services 11.9% Financial 23.3% Services 11.0% Meals 12.7% Tourism Transport Accommodation Miscellaneous Legal Services 1.4% $292 billion$33,020 per Household ($633 per week) Note: 2 Baby sitting, Pre-school education M/V hire and maintenance, gardening and many others Note: 1Spending on services, new since 1965 Source: IBISWorld 09/10/12
  43. Household Spending On Sport Share of Total (%), by Quintile,F2012(E) H’Hold Net Gross Total Sport Fitness Spectating Number Wealth Income Sport Eqpt. & Health Fees Richest Well Off Middle Struggle Poorest Source:IBISWorld 11/06/12
  44. 6.So?
  45. Some of the Challenges How do we become more knowledgeable, professional, promotional and effective in making Australians a fitter and more sporting society? How do we reach the low income and disadvantaged segments of our society with adequate sport ? How do we incentiviseand individualise sport to an increasingly ageing, indifferent and pluralistic society? As this Century unfolds, how do we maintain creativity in sporting products and their delivery? How do we become an ethnic-wider industry? What should Australia’s role be in the Asia Pacific to promote sport and its individual, social and international benefits? How do we grow out of a predominantly cottage-industry style of operation?
  46. To download this presentation go to: www.ibisworld.com.au Ruthven ASC Enter details here to download presentation
More Related