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Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas

EGU General Assembly 2014 May 2nd, 2014, Vienna. Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas. Gioia, E. 1 , Speranza, G. 2 , Ferretti, M. 2 , Marincioni, F. 1 , Godt , J. W. 3 , and Baum , R. L. 3

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Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas

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  1. EGU General Assembly 2014 May 2nd, 2014, Vienna Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas Gioia, E.1, Speranza, G.2, Ferretti, M.2, Marincioni, F. 1, Godt, J. W.3, and Baum, R. L.3 Departmentof Life and EnvironmentalSciences, Marche PolytechnicUniversity, Via BrecceBianche, Ancona, 60100, Italy, e.gioia@univpm.it; RegionalForecast Center, Marche Region, Via del ColleAmeno 5, Ancona, 60126, Italy; U.S. GeologicalSurvey, Box 25046 MS 966, Denver, CO 80225-0046

  2. Introduction 99% municipalitiesaffected • (picturescourtesy of the Marche CivilProtection) USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS • (Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea - Report 2008)

  3. Introduction EVENT USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS

  4. EMPIRICAL MODELS • (STATISTICAL) • PHYSICAL MODELS • (DETERMINISTIC) Introduction • Antecedentrainfall (A) ; • Rainfallintensity (I) ; • Rainfallduration (D) : • Probability • Hydrologicalfeatures; • Hydrogeologicalfeatures; • Geomorphologicalfeatures; • Geotechnicalfeatures; • Structuralfeatures. USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS LANDSLIDES FORECAST

  5. Introduction TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope Stability) USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS

  6. Study area USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS THE POST-OROGENIC COMPLEX OF THE ESINO RIVER BASIN

  7. Data collection USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS LANDSLIDES (82) OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD 1990-2012

  8. Data collection USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS RAIN GAUGES USED FOR THE STUDY

  9. Data collection USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS LANDSLIDES TEXTURE CLASSES

  10. Data collection USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS BOX PLOT CHARTS OF CENTRAL TENDENCIES

  11. Method STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS SETTINGS

  12. Method STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS SETTINGS

  13. Method STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals STEP 3: Evaluate an “Antecedent Water Index” USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS SETTINGS

  14. Method STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals STEP 3: Evaluate an “Antecedent Water Index” STEP 4: Construct input grids of slope from a 20m DEM, property zones, rainfall input, soil depth and water table depth USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS SETTINGS

  15. Results USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS OCTOBER 1996 CASE STUDY

  16. Results USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS (ROC) ANALYSIS

  17. Conclusion • Wepresented an innovative methodology for the application of a physical model (TRIGRS) for rainfall-induced shallow landslides forecasting over broad areas. • TRIGRS well predicts the instabilities, thus can be used to build an accurate susceptibility map; • Rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted even where geotechnical and hydraulic properties data as well as temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not available. USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS

  18. … Thank you

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