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National Seminar on Socio –Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change

National Seminar on Socio –Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change. “Incorporating Climate Change into The National economic Development”. S. Muthusamy Economic Planning Unit. 22 June 2007 Putrajaya. Outline. 1. Climate Change an Integrated Framework

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National Seminar on Socio –Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change

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  1. National Seminar on Socio –Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change “Incorporating Climate Change into The National economic Development” S. Muthusamy Economic Planning Unit 22 June 2007 Putrajaya

  2. Outline 1. Climate Change an Integrated Framework 2. Why Climate Change issue important to developing countries 3. Climate Change activities in Malaysia 4. Emissions, scenario & trends in energy sector 5. GHG reductions measures & potentials

  3. Climate Change Temperate rise Sea-level rise Precipitation change Droughts and floods Impacts on human and natural systems Food and water resources Ecosystem and biodiversity Human settlements Human health Socio-economic development paths Economic growth Technology Population Governanace Emissions and Concentrations Greenhouse gases Aerosols Climate Change - An Integrated Framework Adaptation Adaptation Mitigation

  4. WHY..? No emission reduction commitments for developing countries under FCCC & Kyoto Protocol, but: • CO2 emissions in developing countries grow much faster • Cost for remedy in the future expensive • Damage could be irreversible • Possibility of accepting emission reduction commitments • Potential financial flow • To promote a cleaner development path

  5. Policy Options: Regulatory: • Emission standards • Fuel quality • Emission targets • Standards for equipments Economic Instruments: • Trading permits • Carbon tax • Tax rebate

  6. Sectoral: • Energy : • Transport : • Buildings : • Industry : Improved supply and distribution efficiency Fuel switching Renewable energy Efficient fuel vehicles Cleaner fuel Model shifts Non-motorised Efficient lighting Efficient electrical appliances Efficient end-use electrical equipment Heat and power recovery Material recycling Control of non-CO2 emissions

  7. Agriculture : • Forestry : • Waste : Improved crop and land management Improved cultivation techniques Controlled fertilizer applications Sustainable forest management Reduced deforestration Forest bioenergy Landfill methane recovery Incineration energy recovery Composting Recycling and minimization

  8. Constraints/barriers: • Climate change global “tragedy of the commons” – why bother? • Determining “Trade-offs” between climate change and development – resource allocations • Choosing appropriate policy options – regulatory; economic instrument • Conflicts with social and economic development objectives • Political consideration – mitigation vs. adaptation • Insufficient relevance of available information

  9. Climate Change Commitment Milestones Milestones Ratified Montreal Protocol Ratified UNFCCC Setup National Committee on Climate Change Submitted Initial National Communications • Ratified Kyoto Protocol Setup National Committee on CDM Begins preparation for Second National Communication CDM projects registration with EB (15…) Year 1989 1994 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006

  10. Emissions Scenario • National Initial Communication, 2000 • IEA publications

  11. Malaysia GHG Emissions Scenario 1994 CO2 equivalent Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Land use change & forestry Waste Total emission Net total (after subtracting sink) 97,852 4,973 6,925 7,639 26,925 144,314 75,593 Sector Source: Malaysia Initial National Communication

  12. Final Energy Use by Sector ktoe Source: Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  13. Final and Industrial Energy Intensity Toe/RM Million (at 1987 Prices) Notes: * Final Energy Demand/GDP at 1987 Prices ** Industrial Energy Demand/Industrial GDP at 1990-2005 Source: Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  14. Trends of Primary Energy Supply, Electricity Demand, & Final Energy Demand Per Capita ktoe Source: Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  15. Trends in GDP and Final Energy Demand RM Million (at 1987 Prices) ktoe Source: Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  16. Energy Intensity in ASEAN Source: Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (2002-2003), 2005 Edition, International Energy Agency (IEA)

  17. CO2 Emission Trend % change 90-02 144.0% 83.1% 1990 47.40 2.60 1998 92.65 4.18 1999 99.75 4.39 2000 106.80 4.59 2001 110.92 4.66 1995 75.54 3.67 2002 115.65 4.76 • CO2 Sectoral Approach (Mt of CO2) • CO2/Population (t CO2 per capita) Source: IEA, 2004

  18. Policy Direction: • Lack of clear indication in National Plans • Insufficient evidence on the effects of climate change in Malaysia-Environment • However many climate change initiatives / measures implicitly / indirectly refered

  19. Fuel Mix for Power Generation (%) 2005 2010e 2000 Gas Coal Hydro Oil Others 70.2 21.8 5.5 2.2 0.3 55.9 36.5 5.6 0.2 1.8 77.0 8.8 10.0 4.2 0 Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan

  20. GHG Emission Reduction Potentials 1. Use of Palm Oil Biomass EFB (million tons) Potential Energy (m toe) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10.5000 11.9364 13.4841 13.3623 14.5887 2.2586 2.5676 2.9005 2.8743 3.1381 Source: DANIDA studies

  21. 2. Energy Efficiency in the Industrial Sector MEEP study on 8 industrial sectors – Glass; Cement; Iron & steel; Pulp & paper; Rubber; Ceramic; Wood; and Food i) Cement : ii) Iron & steel : iii) Glass : iv) Pulp & Paper : 30.0% 3.8% 2.0% 5.0%

  22. Climate change related initiatives: Restructuring public transport system (30:70). Adopting stringent emission standards ; Cleaner fuel. Encouraging use of natural gas. Promote utilisation of renewable energy. Energy efficiency-building, transport sector. Eco-labelling to promote energy efficient appliances. Promote alternative process techniques. Energy efficiency activity in energy intensive industries. Studies / research to reduce GHG. Recovery of heat / power from waste treatment • Transportation : • Energy : • Indusrty :

  23. Thank You Terima Kasih www.epu.jpm.my

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