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NYMTC’s Land Use Model Land Use Model Workshop May 1, 2008. Ali Mohseni Manager of Model Development Group New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. Why we need a Land Use Model?.
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NYMTC’s Land Use ModelLand Use Model WorkshopMay 1, 2008 Ali Mohseni Manager of Model Development Group New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
Why we need a Land Use Model? • To understand how Land Use development throughout the region will change in response to changes in transportation system. • To understand how changes in Land use will cause changes in travel pattern. • A feedback loop could ensure consistency between land use and travel demand. • Provide capability of performing “what If Analysis”. • To meet the needs of various NYBPM users in the region.
History of NYMTC’s LUM • Existing NYMTC-LUM was developed 10 years ago as part of the regional NYBPM package; it was delivered in 2003. • Because of complexity of NYBPM with a lengthy process for testing, adjustment, update, training and application and lack of additional resources, so LUM was never evaluated, tested or used by NYMTC staff. • NYMTC’s LUM has been used for a corridor study in the region.
Current NYMTC - LUM • Combination features of : • CATLAS (Chicago Area Transportation and Land Use Analysis) • NYSIM (New York Area Simulation Model) • CPHMM (Chicago Prototype Housing Market Model) • The Stockholm Model • Time Horizon: • One-step run for horizon year • Five-year incremental run • Three major categories of inputs • Transport improvements • Base year Land Use • Horizon year basic employment
Current Issues • Unreliable SED allocation from county to TAZ by using manual method which directly affect the NYBPM outputs. • The interactions between transportation system and land use is not incorporated • Having a land use model but not incorporated into the planning process. • Not capable of conducting certain scenario planning and land use policy analysis. • Unable to address the regional land use trends, plans and policies in the transportation decision-making process.
Now. . . • NYMTC staff reasonably proficient in using NYBPM. • Responsive to member agencies requests and other NYBPM users. • Two years time window before the next major update of NYBPM • Intend to activate the NYMTC-LUM, but….
NYMTC Land Use Model Options No action – continue taking SED estimates using manual method. Evaluate the existing NYMTC-LUM and activate and update it or develop a new LUM based on regional needs.
NYMTC Land Use Model Options No action – continue to use current SED forecast procedures. • Unreliable SED allocation by using manual method which directly affect the performance of the BPM. • Having a land use model but not incorporated into the planning process.
NYMTC Land Use Model Options Activate and update the existing LUM or develop a new one. • For SED allocation at TAZ level • More reasonable and scientific SED allocation process. • Capable of conducting scenario planning and policy analysis. • VMT may change (decrease or increase). • Any changes to BPM will impact the BPM outputs including VMT.
Next Steps • PFAC members understand the related issues, then decide… • Continue current practice (not update and/or use the existing NYMTC-LUM). • Release the RFP to evaluate the existing LUM and update it or develop a new one.
THE END Thank You!