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Exploring Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings: Collaborative Science at NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Delve into the innovative forum of collaboration between researchers and practitioners at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, focusing on experimental warning and forecast programs, pioneering projects between NSSL and WFO-OUN, and the arrival of the SPC and annual spring experiments. Witness the evolution of technology infusion in weather forecasting and the operational impacts observed in tornadic supercells.

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Exploring Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings: Collaborative Science at NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

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  1. Science Infusion Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings 1

  2. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed - A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners… Two Main Program Areas… Experimental Warning Program Experimental Forecast Program 2

  3. Establishing the “Culture of Collaboration” A glance at pioneering Collaborative Projects between NSSL and WFO-OUN…the incipient EWP branch of the HWT Late ’70s 1985 1989 1996 1997 2001 + 1994-95 Early algorithms MAPS, COPS, QED, Pre-AWIPS DOPLIGHT JDOP WDSS II, JPOL, COMET, IHOP, Dual Pol, TIMEX, STEPS, PAR, SHAVE, ProbWarn Pre-STORM NEXRAD IOT&E II VORTEX WDSS AWIPS 3

  4. Arrival of the SPC… Spring Experiments… The EFP branch of the HWT SE SE SE SE SE SPC Arrives…Spring Experiments begin… 1997 2000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 2005 2006 2007 - 2008 Winter Weather Experiment IHOP forecasting support Convection-Allowing WRF model forecasts Convective parameterization Mesoscale Ensembles Convection-Allowing ensembles 4

  5. The annual Spring Experiment • A 6-8 week experiment conducted each spring to evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment …Scenes from SE2008… 5

  6. HWT-EFP Spring Experiment2007 Participating Institutions: NOAA Agencies Universities - NCEP/AWC (2) - NWS/OUN - Albany-SUNY (2) - NCEP/EMC (3) - NWS/RAP - Arizona (2) - NCEP/HPC - NWS/SLC - Colorado State - NCEP/SPC (9) - NWS/SRH - Iowa State - NWS/BTV - OAR/NSSL (5) - North Carolina State (4) - NWS/LWX - OAR/GSD (3) - Oklahoma (2) - NWS/MAF - OAR/PSD - Penn State - NWS/OCWWS - Purdue (2) - UNC-Charlotte - York (Ontario) Gov’t Agencies - NCAR (5) - Environ. Canada (6) - UK Met Office - USRA (Huntsville) Private Sector - Merrill Lynch - FirstEnergy 6

  7. O-to-R : Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… What do Forecasters need? 7

  8. R-to-O : Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… Perform research, communicate results… 8

  9. R-to-O : NCEP operational forecast NSSL parallel experimental forecast e.g., Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… Transfer technology… 9

  10. Establishing a “grass-roots” infusion paradigm… At least 24 NSSL-SPC co-authored, refereed publications since 2000 Publish results… 10

  11. Tornadic Supercells Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity Tangible Operational Impacts 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak “The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 11

  12. 2000 2005 Questions?? 2001 2003 2007 2002 2004 2008 12

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