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Science Infusion

Science Infusion. Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings. 1. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. - A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners…. Two Main Program Areas…. E xperimental W arning P rogram. E xperimental F orecast P rogram. 2.

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Science Infusion

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  1. Science Infusion Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings 1

  2. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed - A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners… Two Main Program Areas… Experimental Warning Program Experimental Forecast Program 2

  3. Establishing the “Culture of Collaboration” A glance at pioneering Collaborative Projects between NSSL and WFO-OUN…the incipient EWP branch of the HWT Late ’70s 1985 1989 1996 1997 2001 + 1994-95 Early algorithms MAPS, COPS, QED, Pre-AWIPS DOPLIGHT JDOP WDSS II, JPOL, COMET, IHOP, Dual Pol, TIMEX, STEPS, PAR, SHAVE, ProbWarn Pre-STORM NEXRAD IOT&E II VORTEX WDSS AWIPS 3

  4. Arrival of the SPC… Spring Experiments… The EFP branch of the HWT SE SE SE SE SE SPC Arrives…Spring Experiments begin… 1997 2000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 2005 2006 2007 - 2008 Winter Weather Experiment IHOP forecasting support Convection-Allowing WRF model forecasts Convective parameterization Mesoscale Ensembles Convection-Allowing ensembles 4

  5. The annual Spring Experiment • A 6-8 week experiment conducted each spring to evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment …Scenes from SE2008… 5

  6. HWT-EFP Spring Experiment2007 Participating Institutions: NOAA Agencies Universities - NCEP/AWC (2) - NWS/OUN - Albany-SUNY (2) - NCEP/EMC (3) - NWS/RAP - Arizona (2) - NCEP/HPC - NWS/SLC - Colorado State - NCEP/SPC (9) - NWS/SRH - Iowa State - NWS/BTV - OAR/NSSL (5) - North Carolina State (4) - NWS/LWX - OAR/GSD (3) - Oklahoma (2) - NWS/MAF - OAR/PSD - Penn State - NWS/OCWWS - Purdue (2) - UNC-Charlotte - York (Ontario) Gov’t Agencies - NCAR (5) - Environ. Canada (6) - UK Met Office - USRA (Huntsville) Private Sector - Merrill Lynch - FirstEnergy 6

  7. O-to-R : Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… What do Forecasters need? 7

  8. R-to-O : Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… Perform research, communicate results… 8

  9. R-to-O : NCEP operational forecast NSSL parallel experimental forecast e.g., Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… Transfer technology… 9

  10. Establishing a “grass-roots” infusion paradigm… At least 24 NSSL-SPC co-authored, refereed publications since 2000 Publish results… 10

  11. Tornadic Supercells Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity Tangible Operational Impacts 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak “The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 11

  12. 2000 2005 Questions?? 2001 2003 2007 2002 2004 2008 12

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