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Knocking on the Doors of the Petaflop

This presentation discusses the history and evolution of supercomputers, focusing on the TOP500 Project. It covers the competition between manufacturers, countries, and sites, as well as the performance development and projection of supercomputers. The talk also explores the future of supercomputing and the TOP500 list.

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Knocking on the Doors of the Petaflop

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  1. Knocking on the doors of the Petaflop/sErfahrungen mit 31 Listen und Ausblick auf die nächsten Jahre mit den TOP500 Hans Werner Meuer hans@meuer.de Universität Mannheim & Prometeus GmbH 4th Erlangen High-End-Computing Symposium, Monday, June 23, 2008

  2. 31th List: The TOP10

  3. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  4. Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Mannheim Supercomputer Statistics1986 – 1992 • Presented at ISC’86 – ISC’92/Mannheim Supercomputer Seminars • Counting of Supercomputers in the World • 530 systems in the year 1992

  5. Manufacturer Share Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 100% NEC Hitachi 80% Fujitsu 60% CDC Cray 40% 20% 0% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

  6. Countries Share Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 100% Others 90% Others Europe 80% Germany 70% France 60% 50% UK 40% Japan 30% USA 20% 10% 0% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

  7. Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Deficits of the Mannheim Supercomputer Statistics • Not very reliable • Vector Supercomputers only – „numerical“/mainly „scientific and engineering“ applications • Definition of „Supercomputer“ necessary

  8. Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Top500 Procedure • Listing the 500 most powerful computers in the world • Yardstick: Rmax of Linpack SolveAx=b, dense problem, matrix is random • Update twice a year: • ISC’xy in June in Germany • SC’xy in November in the U.S. • All information available from the TOP500 webserver at:www.top500.org

  9. Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Authors since: O6/1993 11/2000 Jack Dongarra Horst Simon Top500 Authors Project was started in spring 1993 by: Hans W. Meuer Erich Strohmaier

  10. Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics  & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Dongarra's TOP500 List of World's Fastest Supercomputers Released at Mannheim Conference „CRPC researcher Jack Dongarra of the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory is one of three renowned computer scientists who assemble the legendary TOP500 List of the world's fastest supercomputers. Released twice a year since 1993, the list features sites with the most powerful computer systems, determined with information from a questionnaire sent to high-performance computer (HPC) experts, computational scientists, manufacturers, and the Internet community at large. Dongarra, Hans Meuer of the University of Mannheim, and Erich Strohmaier of the University of Tennessee released their June 1999 TOP500 List at the 14th Mannheim Supercomputing Conference and Seminar, held June 10-12 in Mannheim, Germany.“ Source: http://www.crpc.rice.edu/WhatsNew/top500.html The Center for Research on Parallel Computation at Rice University

  11. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  12. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Top500 Status • 1st Top500 List in June 1993 at ISC’93 in Mannheim • • • • • 30th Top500 List on November 13, 2007 at SC07 in Reno • 31st Top500 List on June 18, 2008 at ISC’08 in Dresden • 32nd Top500 List on November 18, 2008 at SC08 in Austin • 33rd Top500 List on June 24, 2009 at ISC’09 in Hamburg • Acknowledged by HPC-users, manufacturers and media

  13. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Countries Count Share % USA 257 51.40% Japan 22 4.40 % Germany 46 9.20 % France 34 6.80 % United Kingdom 53 10.60 % Australia 1 0.20 % Italy 5 1.00 % Netherlands 5 1.00 % Switzerland 6 1.20 % Canada 2 0.40 % Denmark — — Korea 2 0.40 % China 12 2.40 % India 6 1.20 % Others 49 9.80 % Totals 500 100 % 1st List as of 06/1993 31st List as of 06/2008

  14. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Countries/Systems

  15. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Manufacturers Count Share % Cray Inc. 16 3.20 % Fujitsu 4 0.80 % Thinking Machines — — Intel 1 0.20 % Hewlett-Packard 183 36.60% NEC 1 0.20 % Kendall Square Research — — MasPar — — Meiko — — Hitachi/Fujitsu 1 0.20 % Parsytec — — nCube — — IBM 210 42.00 % SGI 22 4.40 % Dell 27 5.40 % Others 35 7.00 % Totals 500 100 % 1st List as of 06/1993 31st List as of 06/2008

  16. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Manufacturer/Systems

  17. Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites Top Sites through 31 Lists

  18. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  19. My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists Top10 in the 06/1997 list

  20. My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists 1000000 1 PFlop/s 100000 10000 Intel ASCI Red Sum 1 TFlop/s 1000 N=1 100 10 1 N=500 0,1 Jun 05 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Performance [GFlop/s]

  21. My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists Number of Teraflop/s Systems in the Top500 500 100 10 1 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05

  22. My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists

  23. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists  The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  24. The 31st List as of June 2008 Processor Architecture/Systems

  25. The 31st List as of June 2008 Operating Systems/Systems

  26. The 31st List as of June 2008 Processor Generations/Systems (June 2008) Others 12% Xeon E54xx (Harpertown) 24% POWER5+ 2% PowerPC 450 2% Opteron Quad Core 3% PowerPC 440 4% Xeon X54xx (Harpertown)8% Xeon 53xx (Clovertown) 19% Opteron Dual Core 8% Xeon 51xx (Woodcrest) 18%

  27. The 31st List as of June 2008 Interconnect Family/Systems

  28. The 31st List as of June 2008 Architectures / Systems

  29. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008  Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  30. Performance Developmentand Projection Jack‘s Notebook Jack‘s Notebook Performance Development

  31. Performance Developmentand Projection Jack‘s Notebook Jack‘s Notebook Jack‘s Notebook Performance Projection 1 Pflop/s 6-8 years 8-10 years

  32. 1 Eflop/s June 2008RoadRunner 2019 ?? 100 Pflop/s 10 Pflop/s Wile E. Coyote ?? 1 Pflop/s June 1993TOP500 Start 100 Tflop/s 10 Tflop/s 1 Tflop/s 1986Cray 2 June 1997Intel ASCI Red 100 Gflop/s 10 Gflop/s 1 Gflop/s 100 Mflop/s 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 RoadRunner – the First Petaflop/s System in the World and its Impact on Supercomputing Chair: Prof. Dr. Hans Meuer, Prometeus & University of Mannheim, Germany

  33. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection  Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  34. Bell‘s Law Bell's Law of Computer Class formationwas discovered about 1972.  It states that technology advances in semiconductors, storage, user interface and networking advance every decade enable a new, usually lower priced computing platform to form.  Once formed, each class is maintained as a quite independent industry structure. This explains mainframes, minicomputers, workstations and Personal computers, the web, emerging web services, palm and mobile devices, and ubiquitous interconnected networks. We can expect home and body area networks to follow this path. From Gordon Bell (2007), http://research.microsoft.com/~GBell/Pubs.htm

  35. Bell‘s Law Bell’s Law states, that: • Important classes of computer architectures come in cycles of about 10 years. • It takes about a decade for each phase : • Early research • Early adoption and maturation • Prime usage • Phase out past its prime • Can we use Bell’s Law to classify computer architectures in the TOP500?

  36. Bell‘s Law Gordon Bell (1972): 10 year cycles for computer classes Computer classes in HPC based on the TOP500: • Data Parallel Systems: • Vector (Cray Y-MP and X1, NEC SX, …) • SIMD (CM-2, …) • Custom Scalar Systems: • MPP (Cray T3E and XT3, IBM SP, …) • Scalar SMPs and Constellations (Cluster of big SMPs) • Commodity Cluster: NOW, PC cluster, Blades, … • Power-Efficient Systems (BG/L or BG/P as first example of low-power / embedded systems = potential new class ?) • Tsubame with Clearspeed, Roadrunner with Cell ?

  37. Bell‘s Law Computer Classes / Systems

  38. Bell‘s Law Computer Classes - refined / Systems

  39. Bell‘s Law HPC Computer Classes

  40. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law  Supercomputing, quo vadis? • Top500, quo vadis?

  41. Supercomputing, quo vadis? European Countries / Systems

  42. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Countries/Systems (June 2008) United States 52% Others 15% China 2% Japan 4% United Kingdom 11% France 7% Germany 9%

  43. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Countries/Performance (June 2008) United States 60% Others 15% Sweden 2% Japan 5% France 6% Germany 8% United Kingdom 7%

  44. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Countries/Systems(June 2008) Top 50 India 2% United States 52% Spain 2% Russia 2% Poland 2% Norway 2% United Kingdom 4% Sweden 6% Japan 10% Germany 8% France 10%

  45. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Continents/Systems

  46. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Asian Countries / Systems

  47. Supercomputing, quo vadis? Producing Regions / Systems

  48. Outline • Mannheim Supercomputer  Statistics & Top500 Project Start in 1993 • Competition between Manufacturers, Countries and Sites • My Supercomputer Favorite in the Top500 Lists • The 31st List as of June 2008 • Performance Development and Projection • Bell‘s Law • Supercomputing, quo vadis?  Top500, quo vadis?

  49. www.top500.org Top500, quo vadis?

  50. Top500, quo vadis? Summary after Fifteen Years of Experience • TOP500 proofed itself by correcting the Mannheim Supercomputer Statistics. • It is simplistic, but (or becauseof it) it gets trends right. • It does not easily allow to track market size • It’s inventory based. • This smoothes seasonal fluctuation. • Turn-over very high, so it still reflects recent developments. Replacement Rate

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