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Retail Market Overview

Retail Market Overview. Update to 29 February 2004 Original presentation delivered by Sean Botha. Contents. 1. Total seafood Highlights Chilled & frozen spend & volume Multiples vs. non-multiples. 4. Frozen seafood Market health check Branded vs. private label spend.

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Retail Market Overview

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  1. Retail Market Overview Update to 29 February 2004Original presentation delivered by Sean Botha

  2. Contents 1. Total seafood • Highlights • Chilled & frozen spend & volume • Multiples vs. non-multiples 4. Frozen seafood • Market health check • Branded vs. private label spend 5. Chilled natural salmon • Analysis of weekly volumes 2. Long-term trends • Chilled vs. frozen expenditure • Chilled vs. frozen volume 6. Comparison of proteins • Key performance indicators 3. Total chilled seafood • Market health check • Long-term trends in penetration • Top 5 species • Sector share of spend 7. Hot topics • Hot topic 1: Demographics • Hot topic 2: Shellfish • Hot topic 3: Northern Ireland

  3. Independents: 1% Freezer Centres: 2% Total seafood highlights (52 weeks ending 29 February 2004) Total seafood - share of spend • Total spend on seafood in multiples is nearly £1.6 billion in the latest year, an increase of 9.6% on last year. • The strongest year-on-year value growth was seen by Tesco, followed by Waitrose and Safeway respectively. Multiples: 88% Co-ops: 2% Other non-grocers: 7% • Other non-grocers (which includes fishmongers) experienced a 7% year-on-year decline in spend. • Seafood has the one of the strongest year-on-year growth rates out of all proteins in retail. • Total seafood reached its highest average price over the 4-weekly period ending 04 January 2004, when it reached £7.13 per kg. +8% +6% change since last year +2% Spend Volume Average price

  4. Total Seafood Chilled & frozen spend & volume Chilled seafood volume is almost as high as frozen, and with the current strong growth rate it is anticipated that chilled seafood volume will exceed frozen before the end of 2004.

  5. Total Seafood Multiples vs. non-multiples (expenditure) Multiples (which includes M&S and Iceland) have increased their share of the total seafood market spend by 10%, while non-multiples lost 1%. Tesco hold the greatest share of spend and have seen the highest growth, with Sainsbury’s following closely. Strong growth rates for Asda means they are gaining market share on Marks and Spencer. Total spend £1.56 billion £1.65 billion £1.79 billion * Please note that Marks & Spencer and Iceland are included in ‘Total Multiples’

  6. Long-term trends Chilled vs. frozen expenditure Chilled seafood expenditure exceeded frozen in 1996, but growth remained relatively static until 1998. From 1992 to 2003, chilled seafood expenditure has more than doubled and now stands at over £1 billion. Frozen seafood expenditure declined by £10 million over the period 1996 - 1998, but has since recovered. * Annual data is up to end of December/start of January.

  7. Long-term trends Chilled vs. frozen volume Frozen seafood volume remains higher than chilled, but is currently in decline (year-on-year). Chilled volume is expected to surpass frozen before the end of 2004 if the current rising trend continues.

  8. Expenditure (£000's) 1,057,420 Change Vs last year +11% Volume (tonnes) Price (£/kg) 138,129 7.66 Change Vs last year Change Vs last year +4% +6% Penetration (%) Avg Weight of Purchase (kg) 82 7 Change Vs last year Change Vs last year +1 +3% Volume per Trip (kg) Frequency of Purchase 0.5 15 times/yr Change Vs last year Change Vs last year +3% +1% Total chilled seafoodMarket health check The increased expenditure on chilled seafood is a result of consumers purchasing more expensive chilled seafood more frequently 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

  9. Total Chilled seafood Long-term trends in penetration (%) 5 years ago 19 million households were buying chilled seafood in a year; between 1999 and 2001, 860,000 new households started buying chilled seafood. In the last year, over 20 million households have purchased a type of chilled seafood at least once. NB! Calculations based on 24.5 million GB households

  10. Total chilled seafood Top five species - spend, volume & average price (% change vs. last year) Although salmon accounts for the highest share of chilled seafood spend (31%), Prawns have gained share in the last year and now account for a 12%share. TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

  11. Total chilled seafoodSector share of spend and yr-on-yr change Added value seafood and chilled shellfish are driving growth in total chilled seafood spend; added value seafood is now the second largest sector in spend share terms. Share of expenditure by sector % expenditure change 04 vs 03 TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

  12. Expenditure (£000's) 728,681 Change Vs last year +5% Volume (tonnes) Price (£/kg) 143,203 5.09 Change Vs last year Change Vs last year n/c +4% Penetration (%) Avg Weight of Purchase (kg) 6.6 88.6 Change Vs last year Change Vs last year -1% +1% Volume per Trip (kg) Frequency of Purchase 0.6 11 times/yr Change Vs last year Change Vs last year -1% +2% Total frozen seafoodMarket health check During the first 2 months of 2004, frozen seafood volumes recovered from their decline. Although less people are buying frozen seafood less often, higher volumes are purchased at each shopping trip (possibly due to promotions). TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

  13. Total Frozen SeafoodExpenditure - Branded vs private label Private label frozen seafood expenditure has increased by 12% since last year; the share between branded and private label frozen seafood is now almost the same. Looking at the 4 months since the start of November 2003, private label share of spend has actually exceeded branded (52% vs. 48%).

  14. Chilled natural salmon 3-year comparison of weekly volumes (tonnes) The effect of the salmon scare on the chilled natural salmon in retail market seems to have continued into February. Weekly volumes for the week ending 08-Feb-04 were 38% lower than the same week the previous year, however the volumes have since recovered. Please note that the drop in volumes cannot be solely attributed to the negative press coverage. Negative press hit -12% -38% % change 2004 v 2003 +22% -20%

  15. Comparison of proteins Key performance indicators Total seafood is the second largest protein in terms of expenditure and penetration, (after chicken) and commands the highest average price. Total seafood Primary beef Primary lamb Primary chicken Primary pork Expenditure (£ million) 1,778 1,435 513 3,009 432 Volume (KG million) 280.4 289.9 89.5 739.4 158.6 Avg price (£/kg) £4.95 £5.73 £3.41 £6.34 £4.10 Penetration (% of GB population) 23.5 80.7 38 56.9 67.9 AWP volume (grammes) 1,595 1,196 2,875 1,310 1,211 *Percentage of GB population purchasing over 4 weeks ending 04-Jan-04 TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 04-Jan-04 † Volume (grammes) purchased over 4 weeks ending 04-Jan-04

  16. Northern Ireland Demographics Shellfish Hot Topics

  17. Demographics Demographic map of selected fish types Chilled salmon appeals to more consumers in social classes ABC1 than frozen salmon. Chilled natural white fish has less appeal for consumers of younger ages than frozen white fish. Younger & lower social class Young & higher social class Total frozen fish TOTAL GB POPULATION Total frozen white fish Total frozen natural salmon Total frozen salmon % of population aged 16 - 44 years Total chilled salmon Total chilled fish Total chilled natural salmon Total frozen natural white fish Total chilled white fish Older & lower social class Older & higher social class Total chilled natural white fish % of population in social classes ABC1

  18. Demographics Fish - volume share by size of household More households with 5+ members prefer to buy frozen natural white fish than total fish. Overall, 2-member households buy the majority of fish, and this is particularly the case in the chilled sector. Chilled natural white fish Frozen natural white fish TOTAL FISH Frozen natural salmon Chilled natural salmon 1 member 2 members 3 members 4 members 5+ members

  19. Demographics Demographic map of selected shellfish types Chilled natural warm water prawns are mostly purchased by consumers in social classes ABC1; these consumers tend to be younger than purchases of frozen natural warm water prawns. Younger & lower social class Younger & higher social class Total frozen fish Total frozen natural shellfish Total frozen shellfish Total frozen natural cold water prawns TOTAL GB POPULATION Total chilled shellfish Total chilled natural cold water prawns Total chilled natural warm water prawns % of population aged 16 - 44 years Total frozen natural warm water prawns Older & lower social class Total chilled fish Older & higher social class % of population in social classes ABC1

  20. Demographics Regional volume share of selected seafood In general consumers living in London purchase the largest share of fish volumes in GB, followed by the Midlands and Lancashire. Chilled seafood is particularly popular in London, while frozen seafood is favoured more by consumers in Lancashire. Total volume (tonnes) 24,280 6,149 107,772 15,484 22,124 22,124 143,203 138,139 281,332 TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

  21. Shellfish Key performance indicators of top chilled species Total crab sticks Total chilled shellfish Total mussels Total prawns Total crab Expenditure (£ million) 183.7 19.1 11.2 8.9 130.1 % change +20% +28% +3% +18% -13% Volume (KG million) 21.7 4.7 2.5 0.9 12.6 % change +10% +15% +3% +17% -21% Avg price (£/kg) 8.47 4.10 4.56 9.53 10.32 +9% +11% N/C +1% +11% % change Penetration (% of GB population) 45.4 13.7 7 4.3 36.9 % change % change +4% -6% +8% -21% +2% AWP volume (grammes) 1,952 1,387 1,427 884 1,393 % change % change +8% +10% +10% +8% -1% TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 29-Feb-04 N/C = No Change

  22. Shellfish Key performance indicators of top frozen species Total frozen shellfish Total prawns Total scampi Total lobster Total calamari Expenditure (£ million) 171.9 45.5 4.3 1.3 117 % change +11% +13% +15% +20% -18% Volume (KG million) 24.3 5.2 0.4 0.3 17.4 % change -4% -48% -4% +8% +18% Avg price (£/kg) 7.08 8.69 9.74 4.68 4.17 +16% -15% +6% +2% +58% % change Penetration (% of GB population) 50.3 19.6 3.2 1.3 41.9 % change % change -6% +1% +34% -39% -4% AWP volume (grammes) 1,971 1,088 554 854 1,697 % change % change N/C +2% +7% -12% -15% N/C = No Change TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 29-Feb-04 Data refers to TOTAL shellfish by species

  23. Shellfish Volume trends of natural chilled prawns by type Volumes of natural chilled warm water prawns have increased over the last three years; over the 4-weeks ending 07 December 2003, they reached their highest ever level of volume sales (341 tonnes). Natural chilled cold water prawns still represent the largest share of natural chilled prawn volumes (63%over the latest 4-week period). 2004 2001 2002 2003 * Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be identified as cold or warm water.

  24. Shellfish Volume trends of natural frozen prawns by type Trends of natural frozen prawns are more erratic, possibly as a result of higher promotion activity. Higher sales occur over the Christmas and Easter periods. A small proportion of frozen warm water prawns are purchased in the retail sector (59 tonnes over the latest 4-weekly period). 2001 2004 2002 2003 * Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be identified as cold or warm water.

  25. Northern Ireland Key performance indicators Growth in spend on seafood in Northern Ireland is strong, particularly in the chilled sector. Chilled smoked fish represents 28% share of chilled spend (16% of total spend), and increased sales by 109% since last year - total spend came to just over £7 million for the year ending 29 February 2004. Total seafood Chilled Frozen Expenditure (£ million) 44.5 25.5 18.9 % change vs previous year +14% +32% -4% Volume (KG million) 6.8 3.1 3.6 % change vs previous year +6% +28% -8% Avg price (£/kg) 6.58 8.19 5.21 % change vs previous year +8% +3% +4% Penetration (% of GB population) 96.1 73.8 88.2 % change vs previous year +2% -1% +5% AWP volume (grammes) 11,916 7,162 6,995 % change vs previous year +8% +3% +4% TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

  26. Northern Ireland Total seafood value & volume share In both NI and ROI chilled seafood has increased its share of the market from last year, based on greater growth rates relative to the frozen sector. The situation changes across markets with respect to expenditure, chilled seafood accounting for the greater share. 1,786,101 281,332 44,452 6,755 133,378 14,658 Frozen Chilled Value Volume Value Volume Value Volume Great Britain N. Ireland R. of Ireland TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

  27. Northern Ireland Volume (tonnes) of chilled seafood species Salmon is responsible for the greatest share of the chilled market, also experiencing considerable growth in the last year. Although Prawns/Scampi hold a smaller share of volume, growth has been impressive. Total chilled smoked fish species have performed extremely well in the latest year, increasing volume sales by 87% to 716 tonnes. 22% 87% 15% 60% = 2% 1% 1% TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

  28. For further information please contact: Sean Botha Market Insight Executive s_botha@seafish.co.uk 0131 524 8631

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