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Correlations Between Hurricane Intensity and Hurricane Cost

Correlations Between Hurricane Intensity and Hurricane Cost. Elle Marks EAS 4803 Spring 2013. Saffir -Simpson Scale. Data. Hurricanes that made Landfall in the US. 1980-2012 Cost in Million USD. Hypothesis. There is a correlation between the category of a hurricane to the cost of damage

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Correlations Between Hurricane Intensity and Hurricane Cost

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  1. Correlations Between Hurricane Intensity and Hurricane Cost Elle Marks EAS 4803 Spring 2013

  2. Saffir-Simpson Scale

  3. Data • Hurricanes that made Landfall in the US. 1980-2012 • Cost in Million USD

  4. Hypothesis • There is a correlation between the category of a hurricane to the cost of damage • Higher category hurricanes have a larger cost of damage

  5. Methods • Least square regression • Correlation • Principle Component Regression • Bootstrap Correlation

  6. Least Square Regression CorrcoefSignificance ‘p’: 0.1296 Corrcoef 95% confidence interval: 0.46738 to -0.064977 Least Squares Regression Slope: 3.6843e+03 LS Slope 95% Confidence Interval: 37304.7002 to -29936.0568 Slope is positive therefore means there is a positive correlation

  7. Correlation Coeff • r = • 1.0000 0.2173 • 0.2173 1.0000 • p = • 1.0000 0.1296 • 0.1296 1.0000 There is no significant correlations at p < 0.05 Small correlation because abs(r) < 0.3

  8. Principle Component Regression Most points follow LS regression (green) and major axis regression (blue), showing little correlation No correlation for principal component regression (black)

  9. Bootstrap Correlation Mean = .2280 Std=.1260

  10. Conclusions • There is small correlation between the cost of a hurricane and its category value • Reject null hypothesis

  11. Future Work • Test to see if there is a correlation when compared with topography

  12. Questions? Comments? Concerns?

  13. Sources • http://hurricanecentral.freeservers.com/Statistics/Costliest.htm • http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/TCFAQ_E.txt • http://www.iii.org/facts_statistics/hurricanes.html

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