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3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006. Marco Verdecchia. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9. CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it.

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3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

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  1. 3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006 Marco Verdecchia 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

  2. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Developed by: Since 2002 • It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution • It runs in any (?) unix platforms • It does not use any licensed software • Different kind of rain data are assimilated

  3. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Two reasons for NOT using CHYM: • NOT easy to use • (CHyM is a NSE2USE Model) • Documentation is not (yet) available

  4. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Outline • Description of the model • Algorithms • Generating streamflow network • Building prec. fields with diff. data • Physical processes • Applications

  5. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources • Why to develop a new Hydrological Model? • It has been thought for operational • purposes • It is a good “exercise”

  6. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated Flow direction matrix is computed Validation “Pits” and singularities are corrected

  7. For each cell the slope is computed as: Max slope 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Runoff direction DEM is available with a resolution of 300 m

  8. CHyM: Drainage network test 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  9. CHyM: Drainage network test 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  10. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 A Cellular Automata definition • A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system • Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities • Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states • The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

  11. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 A Cellular Automata application Life rules by Chris G. Langton • The status of each CA can be ON or OFF • If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF • If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF • Otherwise CA became ON

  12. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CA for CHyM applications • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix (DEM) • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously • Update ends when flow scheme is OK

  13. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction • Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be • obtained for all the cells • Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM • Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining • toward an higher cell

  14. CHyM: Drainage network test 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  15. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

  16. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  17. CHyM: DEM pit correction 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  18. CHyM: DEM pit correction 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  19. CHyM: DEM pit correction 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  20. CHyM: Examples of Drainage Network Extraction 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  21. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA) • Startingfrom each cell a stone rolls up to the • river‘s mouth 2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for this cell a counter is incremented by 1 3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the upstream drained surface 4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the upstream drained precipitation

  22. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

  23. Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources Radar Gauge data 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 time Museo Archive MM5 analysis MM5 Forecast Satellite estimations Now

  24. CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  25. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates

  26. CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 NERETIR NEural Rainfall Estimation from Termal InfraRed

  27. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM rain data sources: MM5 MM5 Meteorological Model

  28. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources Module 1 • Define subdomain • Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges • Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula • Smooth subdomain matrix using CA • algorithm Module 2 Module 3 Module n

  29. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CA for CHyM applications • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix (RAIN) (DEM) • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous Module are not updated • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously • Update ends when flow scheme is OK • Update ends when a stable state is reached

  30. rij≤ a 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 + smoothing using Cellular Automata Observed rain using Cressman algorithm

  31. + MUSEO module using Cressman 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 + CA

  32. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 In sequence …

  33. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM Rain field sources: an example

  34. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources For each cell the simulated processes are: Runoff Evapotraspiration Infiltration Rainfall

  35. Soil moisture storage 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Infiltration Surface Runoff Infiltration Deep percolation Interflow

  36. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Evapotraspiration Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)

  37. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Runoff Continuity equation A= cross sectional area of the river Q= flow rate of water discharge qc= rain for length unit Momentum equation S= slope 1/R= wetter perimeter n= Manning‘s roughness coefficient

  38. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: A first application Ri = rain Ai = drained surface AI= Alarm Index

  39. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  40. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Soverato Flood simulation

  41. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Val Canale flood simulation

  42. CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

  43. CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

  44. CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

  45. Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results • Daily precipitation from • 1958 to 2002 • Total drained rain in the • last N days 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 • Landslides occur when TDR-N • is greater than LT (N and LT • values to optimized)

  46. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

  47. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

  48. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

  49. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

  50. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

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