Forest Fire Detection in Ontario

1. Forest Fire Detection in Ontario Rob McAlpine Program Leader, Forest Fire Science and Technology Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Aviation and Forest Fire Management Branch

2. Talk Outline • Outline of Fire Management in Ontario • History of Fire Detection • Current Detection operations • Detection Results • Challenges

3. Ontario’s Fire Management Program Forests cover 85% of Ontario’s land area and forest fires have shaped much of this environment. Land cover composed primarily of Boreal and Mixedwood Forests. Ontario averages roughly 1,300 fires annually. $94 million spent annually to protect communities and natural resources. $4.1 billion in Gross Provincial Income annually attributed to forest fire protection.

4. Policy Fire Management Strategies 6 Fire Management Zones • Southern Ontario • Parks • Great Lakes/St. Lawrence • Boreal • Northern Boreal • Hudson Bay • Ecoregion-based planning rather than zones based on geographically or politically based

5. Policy Fire Management Strategy • Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire use • Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives • Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits. • New performance measures have been developed: • Forest Depletion Area Burned • Hazard Reduction Area Burned • Ecosystem Renewal Area Burned • A flexible response to fires through the concept of Managed Fire.

6. Performance • The key performance measure is Initial Attack Success • Target is 96% IA Success

7. Annual Number of Fires 10 year average - 1,283

8. 10 year average – 152,188 Annual Hectares Burned

9. Organization • District Office • Response Centre • Two Regional Fires Centers direct day-to day operations • A Provincial Fire Centre oversees two Fire Region Centres • 29 Attack bases • 225 Permanent staff and 760 seasonal positions

10. Detection in Ontario • At the turn of the century Ontario began to build towers • Most towers were erected between 1920 and 1950 • At the peak there were 320 active towers • During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s most towers were decommissioned – replaced with Aerial detection

12. Current Fire Detection Program • Aerial - Fleet of 15 Contract Aircraft • Public - Common reporting system • Reports direct to Fire Centres

13. Detection Planning • Aerial Detection advantage is flexibility • Detection planning is based on risk, expected fire starts, and expected fire behavior

14. Detection Costs • Basing fees = $675,000 for 15 contract aircraft • Positioning Fees = $225,000 • Flying costs = $325 to $635 /hour/aircraft. Average 270 hours per aircraft for approximate flying costs $2,000,000 • Spend around $3.0 million annually on organized detection

15. Results • Or: • What did we buy with that $3,000,000? • Or: • Some Embarrassing Statistics

16. Sources ofFireReports

17. Percent Discovery By Type FWI Class Lightning Fires Only

18. Discovery Size (ha) FWI Class

20. Challenges • Performance measures • Investment level • Integration of new technology

21. Performance Measures • Audit Results • Working towards A robust performance measure • Recognize Detection as Part of a larger system

22. Life Cycle of a Forest Fire

23. Detection Performance • Goal of Forest Fire Detection: Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success at a minimum cost. Draft Goal

24. Detection Performance • Goal of Organized Forest Fire Detection: Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success without competing with other detection sources Draft Goal

25. Different Suppression Weights Conceptual Detection Target 96% likely successful Initial Attack Expected Fire Behavior Detection Size

26. Detection Performance Complicating Factors • Cost Trade Offs • Suppression weight vs additional detection • Build in “Random Detection” into system • do not want to compete

27. Summary • Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed Fire • Fire load and area burned is highly variable • Ontario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detection • Most fires are detected by “random” sources • Working towards a robust performance measure

28. Thank You