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Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment: bioeconomic analysis & uncertainty

Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment: bioeconomic analysis & uncertainty. 200 Cichlid Extinctions. Unionid Extirpation. Sea Lamprey Damage. Cumulative number of invasions. Year. Ricciardi (in review). Relevance Major cause of biodiversity loss Physical and chemical changes

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Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment: bioeconomic analysis & uncertainty

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  1. Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment: bioeconomic analysis & uncertainty

  2. 200 Cichlid Extinctions

  3. Unionid Extirpation

  4. Sea Lamprey Damage

  5. Cumulative number of invasions Year Ricciardi (in review)

  6. Relevance • Major cause of biodiversity loss • Physical and chemical changes • Industrial impacts • Aesthetics • Property values • Invasive species cost estimated $137 Billion US/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999)

  7. Beneficial Introduced Species

  8. Bioeconomics Ecology Objective Source Location of Species Costs Transport/Survival in Pathway Maximize Societal Welfare Establishment AbundanceSpread Benefits Impact

  9. Bioeconomics Ecology Economics Objective Source Location of Species Transport / Introductions Prevention Costs Transport/Survival in Pathway Control Maximize Societal Welfare Value Added Investment Establishment AbundanceSpread Production Benefits Non-market Values Impact

  10. 25 yr horizon 5 yr horizon Welfare Cost Cost Time Leung et al. 2002

  11. Bioeconomics • Explicitly incorporate interactions between society, management & ecology • Incorporate time scale, GDP, and biological responses • Integrate non-market components • Challenges • Sparse data • High uncertainty (ecology, economic valuation) • Timely, but appropriate responses

  12. Uncertainty3 invasions, 100 lakes examined: p=0.03? Pr=0.28 Pr=0.57 Pr=0.04

  13. Learning event Learning event Effect of New Research

  14. Research Directions • Flexible frameworks for decision making • Ecological forecasting with realistically limited data • Integration and evaluation of uncertainty and learning on decisions

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