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International Maritime Statistics Forum Annual Conference Gdansk, Poland April 2008

International Maritime Statistics Forum Annual Conference Gdansk, Poland April 2008. Uses/Misuses of Marine Transportation Statistics. Introduction (Types of Data) Elastic Expectations (Forecasting) Market by Inference (Forecasting) Supply/Demand Matching Hybrid Approach. Types of Data.

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International Maritime Statistics Forum Annual Conference Gdansk, Poland April 2008

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  1. International Maritime Statistics Forum Annual Conference Gdansk, Poland April 2008

  2. Uses/Misuses of Marine Transportation Statistics Introduction (Types of Data) Elastic Expectations (Forecasting)Market by Inference (Forecasting)Supply/Demand Matching Hybrid Approach

  3. Types of Data • Primary Data: Focused actionable data collected for a specific purpose, usually collected through focus groups, customer surveys/feedback surveys…... • Secondary Data: Data that was originally collected for another purpose, usually collected on forms, such as vessel manifests, customs documents, Securities and Exchange filings, vessel registrations.

  4. Analytical Sins – Secondary Data (pro-investment bias) • Elastic Expectations Up-turns will continue; down-turns are temporary! • Market by Inference Project will succeed because things (GDP, Trade) are growing, but even if things aren’t growing, the project will steal market from others? Project is good no matter what happens! • Supply/Demand Matching Trade (demand) is growing so we need more transportation assets (supply). Or, transportation assets are wearing out. In either case, more assets are required! False

  5. Elastic Expectations/Market by Inference and Forecasting In the 1970’s, Data Resources Inc. provided analysts with tools for do-it-yourself forecasts. U.S. Domestic Trade = 453.455 + 0.119 x (real GDP) (16.865) (13.653) Interval: 1950-1975 R2 = 0.886 Elasticity (% change trade/% change trade) = 0.45

  6. The Forecast

  7. The Result

  8. Typical ForecastsFang & Cone

  9. Conclusion, Hybrid Approach Investment Decision Long Term Customer Commitments Primary Data Collection and Analysis Secondary Data Analysis

  10. Bottom Line Start with secondary data, finish with primary data.

  11. QUESTIONS? Contact Me Russell Byington Chief Economist Maritime Administration U.S. Department of Transportation 202 366 2278 russ.byington@dot.gov Web Site: www.marad.dot.gov/marad_statistics

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