Kara DiFrancesco PhD student, Water Resources Engineering Oregon State University

1. Defining and evaluating water management system flexibility, adaptive capacity, and of the relationship between these concepts Kara DiFrancesco PhD student, Water Resources Engineering Oregon State University difranck@orst.onid.edu PNW Climate Science Conference University of Washington 13 September 2011

2. “An increase in… the flexibility and adaptive capacity of water management regimes should be a primary management goal.” (Pahl-Wostl et al 2007) Flexibility System Design Optimization stationary/certain changing/uncertain Conditions Images source: Aquafornia.com

3. Research objectives • To identify indicators of flexibility in water management systems • To assess the extent to which flexibility increases the adaptive capacity of water management systems • To evaluate management options based on their ability to cost effectively increase flexibility and adaptive capacity

4. Components of Flexibility Slack: degree of excess capacity Intensity: degree of repetitiveness Adaptability:degree of versatility (Turner and Lankford2005)

5. Adaptive capacity is a function of… Robustness - ability to meet objectives under a wide range of plausible impacts Adjustability - how well, how quickly, and at what cost the system can adjust to changing conditions

6. Hypothesized relationship between components Flexibility Adaptive capacity Slack Degree of excess capacity Robustness Ability to meet objectives under a wide range of plausible impacts Intensity Degree of repetitiveness Adjustability • Ability to adjust to changing conditions through management actions AdaptabilityDegree of versatility

7. American River Flood Frequency Analysis of Climate Projections Plausible impact range

8. Adaptive capacity – robustness assessment Vulnerability range Operational range

9. Adaptive capacity – adjustability assessment Vulnerability range Management action Operational range

10. Anticipated Outcomes • Methodology to assess water system flexibility • Characterization of flexibility and adaptive capacity relationship • Assessment of ability to reduce vulnerabilities through management actions • Exploration of what available climate projections reveal about future flood risk

11. References Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ed. M Parry. Cambridge U.K.; New York: Cambridge University Press. Pahl-Wostl, C., J. Sendzimir, P. Jeffrey, J. Aerts, G. Berkamp, and K. Cross. 2007. “Managing change toward adaptive water management through social learning.” Ecology and Society 12 (2): 30. Turner, Douglas E, and William M Lankford. 2005. “Information technology infrastructure: a historical perspective of flexibility.” http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.94.6611.