Smart Climatology: Methods and Products for the U.S Military Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphre

1. Smart Climatology: Methods and Products for the U.S Military Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu Brief Presented at DoD Climate Conference AFCCC/14WS and FNMOD, Asheville, NC, 06 November 2007 Updated 10 November 2007 Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

2. Co-Authors • Tom Murphree, NPS • Mark LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN • Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF • Sarah Moss, Capt, USAF • David Meyer, (USN retired), NPS • Katherine Twigg, Lt, Royal Navy • Bob Tournay, Capt, USAF • Christi Montgomery, LT, USN • Allon Turek, LCDR, USN • Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc. • Paul Frederickson, NPS • Dave Smarsh, Col, USAF • Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF • Chuck Wash, NPS • NPS climatology course students • In Coordination and Collaboration with: • AFCCC/14WS, FNMOD, NAVO, ASW Directorate, USAFE, AFRICOM • Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

3. Outline • What is smart climo? • How is smart climo different from traditional climo? • Why is smart climo important to the military? • Is there a requirement for smart climo? • Who benefits from smart climo? • Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart climo? • What does it take to do smart climo? • How should DoD attempt to do smart climo? • What partnerships are needed to do smart climo well? • What are the key first steps in doing smart climo? • What timeline should we set for doing smart climo? • What funding and other resources will be needed to do smart climo?

4. What is Smart Climatology? • Smart climatology: State-of-the-science basic and applied climatology that directly supports DoD operations • Smart climatology involves the use of state-of-the-science: • Data sets • Data access & visualization tools • Statistical & dynamical analysis • Climate modeling • Climate monitoring • Climate prediction • Climate scale decision analysis tools • for risk assessment, mitigation, & exploitation Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

5. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology as provided by FNMOD. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

6. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program, murphree@nps.edu

7. Smart Climatology T (oC) Traditional Climatology year Surface T (oC), Iraq, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Long Term Fluctuations and Trends – Surface T, Iraq, Jul-Sep Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

8. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology T (oC) year SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Long Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

9. Evaporation duct height anomalies (m) for Aug-Oct during positive phase of Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM). Smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights – Climate Anomaly Patterns Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology Not available Smart climo analyzes dominant modes of climate variability, especially relatively predictable variations, and accounts for those modes in operational products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

10. Days 1-15 Days 20-35 High precip Low precip precip rate (mm/d) low high How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Short Term* Climate Prediction, Korean Precip, Jun-Sep Low tropical precip (left) is a predictor of high Korean precip (right) at leads of 5-20 days with 78% probability of detection. Reverse also holds true. Dynamics involve Rossby wave trains along subtropical jet. Smart climo uses statistical and dynamical analyses to assess and exploit predictability in the climate system to build climate prediction systems. * Short term = one week to one year Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by B. Tournay, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

11. TC Formation Probabilities for 01-07 Oct 2006 10% 25% 40% 55% 70% Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006 Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Short Term Climate Prediction, TC Formation, Western North Pacific Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environment and TCs leads to short term climate predictions of TC activity. Smart climo invests to develop climate prediction systems. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. See details in notes section of this slide. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

12. Surface Radar Detection Ranges Surface Radar Cutoff Frequencies a b (a) Surface radar detection ranges (km) based on NPS smart climatology for September. Values shown are long term means for September,for a C-band radar at 30 ft and detection threshold of 150 dB. (b) Cutoff frequencies (GHz) for surface radar for September. Based on application of existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses, and existing sensor performance aids. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products Smart climatology uses advanced data sets and impacts models to create climate scale sensor performance products in formats that meet end user needs. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

13. Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science planning products in the hands of METOC personnel and end users. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF. Key: 1. Cloud cover, 2. Precipitation, 3. Winds, 4. Temperature Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

14. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? El Nino and La Nina Impacts on Military Operations, Taiwan, October Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science planning products in the hands of METOC personnel and end users. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project See details in notes section of this slide. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

15. Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05 Aerial View Precip Fig mm/d Smart Climo Case – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 • Precip, temp, snowmelt, & runoff anomalies had large operational impacts. • Almost no DoD climo products available or suitable for explaining, monitoring, or forecasting these anomalies or operational impacts. • Problem with DoD climo products even worse for ocean. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

16. Smart Climo Case – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA Above Normal Precip and Temp L Below Normal Tropical Convection H • Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip & temp in SWA. • Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation). • Climate variation reversal oppositeanomalies in SWA. • Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable • Led to: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on climate variation analyses. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

17. Forecast Analysis Smart Climo Case – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Short Term Climate Prediction, Iraq Precip, Oct-Dec Analyses of climate scale relationships (left) lead to short term climate predictions (right). Hindcast for Oct-Dec 2002, during moderate El Nino event, shows high (low) probability of above (below) normal precip. Lead time: six weeks.Verifying observed precip was 28% above normal. Conclusion from many such analyses and forecasts: Short term climate forecasts of T and precip in Southwest Asia have useful skill, especially compared to traditional climo. Smart climo develops, tests, and makes climate prediction systems operational. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by C. Hanson, Capt, USAF, and S. Moss, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

18. Smart Climo Case – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

19. TC Formation Probabilities for 25 Jun - 01Jul 2006 10% 25% 40% 55% 70% Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 25 Jun - 01 Jul 2006 Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. Smart Climo Emerging Directions: Climate Prediction Short Term Climate Prediction, Tropical Convection, North Pacific Method for predicting TC formations being adapted for use in predicting tropical convection (OLR in color inset). Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

20. Currently Available Products TC Forecast 85% Forecast Lead Time 15% None 3-4 weeks 1-2 weeks None Smart Climo Emerging Directions: TC Track Prediction Short Term Climate Prediction, TC Tracks, North Pacific Method for predicting TC formations being adapted for use in predicting TC tracks. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR A. Turek. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

21. SEA 12 Global Fleet Station NPS Smart Climo Emerging Directions: West Africa • Climate variations in Africa are large and have large societal impacts and humanitarian crises. • How should the US military plan for and respond to these climate variations and their societal impacts? “Information on the long term climate impacts would enable HN engagement. Our scope is long term, 6 months to 1 year out. HA/CA needs to be long term to have a sustainable impact.” CAPT Ken Schwingshakl, CO, Maritime Civil Affairs Group, October 2007 Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by C. Montgomery, LT, USN. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

22. NPS Smart Climo Emerging Directions: West Africa • Initial Focus • Implications of interannual variations in precip and surface T for DoD planning • Coordination / collaboration with METOC organizations in Gulf of Guinea region Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. And thesis research by C. Montgomery, LT, USN. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

23. Who’s Doing Smart Climatology? * Status determined by assessment of overall, routine, operational climate support provided by AF and Navy (e.g., AFCCC, FNMOD, FNMOC, NAVO, OWSs, etc.), and by civilian organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, European agencies, industry, etc.). Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

24. Smart Climo Findings • Smart climatology has the potential to substantially improve climate support for warfighters. • The potential to make large improvements through short term climate prediction is especially high. • However, smart climo is, for the most part, not being done by DoD. • Thus, warfighters are not being given state-of-the-science climate support. • We need to get smart about doing climatology. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

25. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Leadership Support • Make smart climatology a priority for AFW and Naval Oceanography Enterprise. • Get climate research and operational climatology experts together with climatology end users to map out the way ahead. • Be efficient. Build on existing resources, especially civilian climatology resources. • Take a joint approach. Consider creating a joint smart climatology reachback center. • Get off to a fast start: Focus first on direct operational applications of existing smart climatology data and methods. • Teach smart climo at all levels, and then give people the tools to do smart climo themselves. Don’t leave smart climo up to just the climo experts. • Provide funding. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

26. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools User selections • Data source • Time period • Location • Basic variables • Derived variables • Display type (e.g., map, cross • section, 3-D, time series) • Analysis type (e.g., mulit-variable, • composite, difference, correlation • Conditional climatology constraints • (e.g., high winds, high seas, low • precip, EN, LN, MJO phase) • Climate forecast (e.g., +NAO, -IOZM, • high TC formation probability) • Operation type Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

27. Sonic layer depth in September one day after wind events of 35 kts or greater SLD (ft) Years Composited 1954 1966 1968 1971 1973 1977 1983 1988 1993 1998 2004 2007 First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools Sample Output Products • Conditional climatologies • for AOR • Teleconnections to AOR • Operational impacts • assessments • Mission planning tools Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

28. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools Intended Users • Mission planners • Staff officers • Forecasters • Ocean analysts • Acoustic analysts • Staff METOC officers and other METOC personnel involved in • mission/exercise planning • NPS students • Researchers • C-school instructors • C-school students • Estimated C-school class time require to train forecasters in effective use of smart climo interface: 4-5 hours. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

29. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Smart Climatology Analysis and Forecasting Process To implement smart climatology, METOC personnel need hands-on education and training. Process outlined here for providing smart climatological supportwas developed and tested by Navy and AF METOC officers and NPS faculty. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS Advanced Climatology course projects and thesis research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

30. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Smart Climatology Learning Center • Develop online learning center for educating METOC personnel on smart climatology. • Introduce users to smart climatology concepts, data sets, and analysis methods, and basic methods for developing smart climatology products. • Teach state-of-the-science operational climatology of atmosphere and ocean in the context of military scenarios. • Composed of self-paced, hands-on, multimedia rich, modules. • Developed in coordination / collaboration with 14WS and CNMOC PDC. • Best developed in tandem with data access, analysis, and visualization application tool. • Build on existing climatology educational materials from AFCCC/14WS, CNMOC PDC, NPS, COMET, etc. Smart Climo 1, murphree@nps.edu, Nov07

31. Outline • What is smart climo? • How is smart climo different from traditional climo? • Why is smart climo important to the military? • Is there a requirement for smart climo? • Who benefits from smart climo? • Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart climo? • What does it take to do smart climo? • How should DoD attempt to do smart climo? • What partnerships are needed to do smart climo well? • What are the key first steps in doing smart climo? • What timeline should we set for doing smart climo? • What funding and other resources will be needed to do smart climo?

32. NPS Smart Climatology Program The NPS Smart Climatology program has four main components: 1. Education 2. Basic and Applied Research 3. Prototype Operational Product Development 4. Product Transitioning For more information, including our major R&D reports from 2000 to present, see: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/. Materials for the NPS Modern Climatology and Advanced Climatology courses are available on request. Note: The NPS Smart Climatology program precedes and is not part of the NRL RTP smart climatology project. ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree@nps.edu

33. Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root Hall 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA 93943-5114 831-656-2723  commercial 312-756-2723  DSN 831-241-0561 cell 831-656-3061  fax murphree@nps.edu murphrjt@nps.navy.smil.mil Smart Climatology: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php METOC Metrics: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports.html ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree@nps.edu

35. Smart Climatology – Backup Slides

36. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • Smart climo is the application of state-of-the-science climatology to supporting DoD operations. • State-of-the-science climatology is routinely and successfully used by civilian operational climate centers in the U.S., Europe, and many other countries to support civilian operations. • Prior studies have shown that climo support provided by DoD is well below the level of the state-of-the-science support provided by civilian operational climo centers. • The big shortcomings in DoD climo stem form the failure to keep up with modern data sets and modern analysis and forecasting methods. • Compared to the climo products that are available in the civilian realm, many DoD climo products are very inadequate and out of date, or simply do not exist (e.g., subsurface ocean currents are available in the civilian climos but not in the Navy climos). • Studies by NPS have shown that smart climo has a very high potential to significantly improve METOC support to warfighters. Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

37. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • The improvements in METOIC support provided by smart climo would occur at all planning levels, from strategic to tactical. The tactical benefits would come from the large role climo plays in developing short range forecasts (e.g., short range model parameterizations, ICs, BCs, nudging, model selection, model evaluation). Tactical benefits also would come from helping warfighters avoid the need to deal with short range environmental problems. Smart climo can help planners select times, locations, routes, pre-positioning of personnel and equipment, and tactics that minimize the risk of short term problems of operation (e.g., determining route for carrier group to minimize risk of low cig/vis; determining best locations to pre-position heavy equipment). • Smart climo involves accounting for climate variations (e.g., El Nino; high wind regimes over the ocean; long term trends; etc;). But there is much more to smart climo than that. One of the first steps in doing smart climo is to work with state-of-the-science data to create state-of-the-science long term means. Then move on to analyzing and forecasting the impacts of climate variations. • NPS studies have also shown that much of the improvement in climo support could happen quickly and at relatively little cost, by leveraging off of existing and freely available civilian data sets, methods, and applications. • Providing routine smart climo support can be a complex process (as is the case for all other types of state-of-the-science METOC support). We need to develop appropriate ways to deal with this complexity in METOC education and training (as we have for other types of METOC support). Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

38. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • Most METOC personnel need to understand the basics of climatology, because climo is fundamental for all types of METOC analysis and forecasting. • Analyzing and forecasting the large scale, low frequency variations of the environment are the first steps in analyzing and forecasting the smaller and shorter term variations. Thus, in any forecast process, the first step should be to assess the state of the climate system. For example, in doing an extratropical synoptic weather forecast, start by looking at the extratropical longwave pattern, a key feature of extratropical climate. • Some uniformed personnel need to be experts in climo, especially the operational applications of smart atmospheric and oceanic climo (and, ideally, smart land and space climo too). These experts need to be supported by DoD civilian climo experts. • Smart climo support fits well into the hub, production center, and reachback cell concepts. The military and civilian staffs at these centers should include at least one climo expert per center. • The uniformed and civilian climo experts need to be given routine professional development opportunities so that they can keep up with the state of the science (e.g., opportunities to take short courses, attend and present at civilian conferences, participate in DoD climo workshops, etc.). Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

39. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • The METOC climo experts need to be responsible for ensuring that DoD climo support also keeps up with the times (e.g., by taking on leadership roles in identifying critical new methods for improving climo support and helping to ensure that necessary R&D is funded and operationally implemented. • Modern climatology might be a better term than smart climatology, since it probably conveys more clearly what we are talking about doing without antagonizing as many people as smart climatology seems to do. However, smart climatology is a term CAPT Titley helped put into the METOC vocabulary, and it has become a pretty common term in METOC circles. • Ideally, we will one day speak just of climatology, with no modifiers like smart or modern. We do not speak of smart or modern meteorology or oceanography, because we just assume that Navy meteorology and oceanography should be and are smart, modern, and state-of-the-art. Once we can safely make that assumption about Navy climatology, we can drop the modifiers. Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

40. NPS Smart Climatology – Research & Development Evaporation duct height (EDH, m) from NPS smart EDH climatology. Values shown are long term means for Aug. Surface radar detection ranges (km) based on our smart EDH climatology. Values shown are long term means for Sep,for a C-band radar at 30 ft and detection threshold of 150 dB. Climatological Environmental Assessment and Performance Surfaces • Methods and Results: • Used smart climatology data and methods to improve long term mean climatologies of evaporation duct heights (EDH) and radar propagation in the Indian Ocean and nearby seas. • Analyzed impactsof seasonal changes & climate variations (e.g., ENLN, IOZM) on EDH & surface radar propagation. • Results: (a) new smart EDH climatology with substantial improvements over existing Navy climatology; (b) identified major spatial and temporal changes in EDH, including those caused by climate variations; (c) determined which factors EDH and surface radar propagation are most sensitive to for different regions and seasons; (d) found potential for forecasting EDH and surface radar propagation at weekly to monthly lead times. • Products: (a) smart climatological environmental assessment surfaces for EDH and EDH factors; and (b) smart climatological performance surfacesfor surface radar propagation (range, CoF); both for varying climate scenarios. • The methods used in this work are directly applicable to developing smart climatologies for other regions, and for other EM and acoustic propagation phenomena. From NPS thesis research by Lt Katherine Twigg, Royal Navy, 2007 ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree@nps.edu

41. NPS Smart Climatology Program Reports NPS Smart Climatology Reports http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree@nps.edu