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SMART INCO-MED 3 rd Management Board Meeting, February 10-14 2004, Aqaba, Jordan

SMART INCO-MED 3 rd Management Board Meeting, February 10-14 2004, Aqaba, Jordan. DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.at Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen. WP03: Modelling. LUC: land use change model

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SMART INCO-MED 3 rd Management Board Meeting, February 10-14 2004, Aqaba, Jordan

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  1. SMART INCO-MED3rd Management Board Meeting,February 10-14 2004, Aqaba, Jordan DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.at Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

  2. WP03: Modelling LUC: land use change model • Discrete state (LUC) transition model • Markov chain with stochastic transition probabilities • Temporal resolution: decades • Spatial resolution: ha to km2 • Possibility for nested grid or polygon representation (arbitrary spatial objects)

  3. WP 03: Modelling Systems states: common land use classes plus transitory/preparatory stages (extended CORINE classification) X1residential, UR X6 orchards, olives X2 residential, SU X7 pastures X3 light industry X8 agriculture/irrig. X4 heavy industry X9unused/badlands X5 horticulture X10 touristic …..

  4. WP03: Modelling state transition matrix: S1 S2 S3 S4 S1 0.74 0.01 0.20 0.05 ∑=1.0 S2 0.01 0.980.00 0.01 S3 0.00 0.02 0.93 0.05 S4 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.87

  5. WP03: Modelling A priori transition probabilities are CONTINGENT on • Global states (e.g., %S1) • Local States: • Temporal (history, memory) • Spatial (neighborhoud)

  6. WP03: Modelling Global/local adjustments of the transition probabilities expressed as First-order logic RULES in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in %). http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html

  7. Land use change model Data requirements: • Land use maps (CORINE land use classification level2/3), raster/grid with 1 ha – 1 km2 resolution • Differential maps from different point in time for initial conditions and calibration • Transition matrix, rules and constraints (targets)

  8. WP03: Modelling Implementation: • Model described in D03.1 • Initial structure from WP 02 • Discuss model structure and data requirements with every team • Basic data ready for Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia - Aqaba ??

  9. Land use change model Simulation experiments: • Vary initial conditions • Vary transition probabilities • Vary rules and constraints System should converge and reach steady state, unless new rules are introduced (e.g., aging/decay of cities)

  10. Land use change model Introduction of economic assessment per unit area: • Revenues, GRP contribution • Employment by land use • Resource consumption • Waste generation Possibility for OPTMISATION

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