GOTV UNIVERSES

1. GOTV UNIVERSES Pilar Weiss New Organizing Institute

2. Introductions NOI On Demand You Norms

3. FOLLOWING THE LAW Elections.neworganizing.com

4. FOLLOWING THE LAW www.afj.org

5. Today’s presenter Pilar Weiss Civic Engagement Director New Organizing Institute

6. Today’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.

7. Introduction • Basic Terms • Building Universes • Capacity, Capacity, Capacity… • Instituting a Timeline • Making Adjustments • Q&A

8. Some basic terms • GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote. • Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day. • Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.

9. BUILDING UNIVERSES

10. SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL • Different vote goals for different kinds of campaigns • Candidates – 50% + 1 • Ballot Initiatives – different states/localities, different laws • Campaigns • Specific geography • Increasing turnout in a specific community or demographic

12. Setting a non-candidate vote goal • Building power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win: • Increasing turnout of a specific demographic • Taking responsibility for a specific region, neighborhood, set of precincts • Increasing civic engagement in a community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics! • What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill?

13. BUILDING your universe

14. TARGETING MATRIX

15. HOW DO we get to our vote goal? • Identify our vote deficit • Identify how we’re going to contact voters • When do we transition from an ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase? • How many GOTV passes will we make to get to our vote goal?

16. CONTACT RATES • Having a baseline for contact rates • Phones – 10-20% • Canvass – 25-35% • Test contact rates – they’ll differ by geography, time of day, list quality.

17. Contact calculus Contact Rate Attempts Goal Contact Goal

18. Building capacity

19. Capacity building blocks • Organizational Capacity • Staff • Volunteers • Growth Potential • Key Metrics • Canvass Method - Phones or Canvassing • Contact Rate Assumptions • Shift Length & Estimated Production

20. Volunteer calculus Shifts Goal Calls per Shift AttemptsGoal

21. BUILDING A TIMELINE • Phases • Transition from persuasion to GOTV • Establishing # of GOTV passes • Calculating a timeline for each phase based on contact rate & capacity • Recognizing the role of Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail. • Calculating ramp up & escalation in each phase, including key benchmarks.

22. timeline

25. Making Adjustments It happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase! • Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate • Assess reality of shift length and shift production • Volunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule

26. QUESTIONS?

27. www.neworganizing.com/toolbox