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Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Understanding 'Dangerous' Climate Change

Professor Mike Hulme presents the Tyndall Centre's work on climate change, covering topics such as decarbonisation, place-based climate protection strategies, integration, and more. The centre conducts trans-disciplinary research, engages with stakeholders, and aims to shape opinions on climate change.

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Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Understanding 'Dangerous' Climate Change

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  1. A Presentation of theTyndall Centrefor Climate Change Research Professor Mike HulmeExecutive Director

  2. Climate change – the big questions Understanding ‘dangerous’ climate change ….. …. ecology, economics, sustainability, psychology, climate science, ethics …. Pathways to decarbonisation ….. ….. energy, economics, technology, policy, engineering, spatial planning …. Place-based climate protection strategies ….. ….. development studies, climate science, land-use economics, ecology, planning … and then there is the challenge of integration …

  3. A brief history of modelling – re. climate change mid-1970s: global climate models – disciplinary, institute-based late-1980s: IMAGE 1 – inter-disciplinarity early-1990s: ESCAPE – trans-nationality mid-1990s: TARGETS – holistic thinking late 1990s: IMAGE 2/COOL – interactivity late-1990s: participatory integrated assessment – a new paradigm early 2000s: eScience – massive modularity … conclusion – era of virtual institutes deploying the above attributes, solving complex problems through interactive research …

  4. The Tyndall Centre …… key elements of what we do • Integrated, trans-disciplinary, multi-site research on climate change mitigation, on adaptation and on integration • Wide engagement and interactivity with national and international stakeholders; partnership based approach • Outreach, education and opinion-shaping

  5. The Tyndall Centre partnership CLIMATE SCIENCE IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS University of Leeds APPLIED ECONOMIC MODELLING ARCHITECTURE TRANSPORT MODELLING INTEGRATION ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS & POLICY ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY RAL ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS & POLICY IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS University of Sussex

  6. Tyndall Centre – External Relationships GOVERNMENT DEFRA DfT DTI FCO DfID DoH ODPM Regional Govt. Devolved Govt. European Commission Funding Business Liaison Programme BUSINESS & INDUSTRY OST RESEARCH COUNCILS NERC, EPSRC, ESRC [MRC?] TRADE ASSOCIATIONS etc. EXEC. NDPB’s English Nature Environment Agency Countryside Agency NGO’s & CHARITIES FOE, Green Alliance, National Trust, BTO, RSPB….. Carbon Trust Energy Saving Trust RESEARCH COMMUNITY National & International TYNDALL ADVISORY NDPB’s EXEC. AGENCIES HA, MCA SOCIETY HADLEY CENTRE INTERNATIONAL European Climate Forum IPCC, UNFCCC FP6 - enVISAge MEDIA UK CIP Some Research funding

  7. Note: All included in this schematic are referred to as The Tyndall Assembly, together with the founding endorsers of the Centre, the “Tyndall 43”. 12.12.01 Tyndall Centre - Structure SUPERVISORY BOARDx5 NERC / EPSRC / ESRC TYNDALL COUNCIL x16 Directors, Theme Managers, and Partner Representatives ADVISORY BOARDx25 Private Sector 10 Public Sector 5 Academia 8 NGO 2 Annual Assessment Panel X12 AB Members Review Panelx7 AB Members CENTRE MANAGEMENT UEA Research Director Executive Director Regional Assistant Directors SOUTHAMPTON & UMIST RESEARCH MANAGEMENT TEAM x10 RESEARCH THEME MANAGERS x6 • CENTRE STAFF • External Communications • Business & Government Liaison • Activities and Web Co-ordination • Scientific Co-ordinator • Administrator • Secretary • Senior Research Fellows (4) RESEARCH PROJECT LEADERSx40 RESEARCH STAFF & STUDENTS * *Includes affiliated students and Visiting Fellows

  8. 13% 4% 6% 33% 21% 16% 7%

  9. Tyndall Centre – additional funders International: EU FP5, Government of Portugal, GEF/UNEP, Earth Negotiation Bulletin UK Government: DEFRA, DTI, DfID, Environment Agency, Sustainable Development Commission, Eastern England Development Agency UK Research Councils: ESRC, NERC, MRC, Joint Infrastructure Fund NGOs: English Nature, Joint Nature Conservation Council, Gulbenkian Foundation Business: Powergen, Shell International, Hoare Lee Engineering, Process Integration Consortium, Renewables Northwest

  10. Organised around four research themes • Decarbonising modern societies – a ‘targets’ approach • Adapting to climate change – a ‘questions’ approach • Sustaining the coastal zone – a ‘place-based’ approach • Integrating frameworks – a ‘systems’ approach

  11. The Tyndall Wheel

  12. Organised around four main tasks • Trans-disciplinary research projects (e.g. mapping pathways towards a 40% UK) • Innovative agenda-setting (e.g. integrating development policy with adaptation) • Strategic assessments (e.g. equity and justice in adaptation policy; COP8) • Advancing the science of integration (e.g. a Community Integrated Assessment Model)

  13. Tyndall integrated assessment objectives • To design and construct a flexible multi-modular multi-disciplinary community integrated assessment model (CIAM) to address climate policy problems • To set up an interactive integrated assessment process (IIAP) in which we work with stakeholders and decision-makers to guide the design of the CIAM

  14. EXAMPLE SCHEMATIC OF SIMPLE PROTOTYPE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIAM) UK: Tyndall Economics Module (Cambridge) Emissions of 6 COP gases UK: Tyndall Centre MAGICC-SCENGEN Climate module (Norwich) Netherlands:ICIS Health module Germany: Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM) DINAS-coast Global Ecosystem Module Feedback effects

  15. Tyndall Centreand eScience

  16. enVISAge – an EU FP6 Network of Excellence?a Virtual Institute for Sustainability Assessment A partnership between national centres and networks • ·Developing a joint knowledge infrastructure for the execution of a truly European program of research • ·Fostering fundamental advances in the emergence of a science of integration and a science of sustainability • Ensuring the appropriate application of this research capacity to the production of timely policy-relevant research on important questions concerning the transition to sustainability

  17. Methodology Stakeholder influence/social decision making Economy Energy Social influences Technical progress World Transport World Agriculture Emissions of 6 COP Gases SO2, NOx, and PM mitigation Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SO2, NOx, aerosols Direct effects of land use change on climate adaptation climate feedbacks interactions Impact System Ecosystems Agriculture Health Human systems including Regionalised sub-modules Climate System Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change

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