Paul Devoti Airport Planner Federal Aviation Administration paul.devoti@faa

1. October 18-20, 2010 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Overview and Forecast Review and Approval Process Paul Devoti Airport Planner Federal Aviation Administration paul.devoti@faa.gov

2. TAF Overview • FAA Terminal Area Forecast • Online database of airport specific forecasts • Official FAA forecast by individual airport • Published annually in late December by APO-100 (Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division) • Unconstrained • TAF Uses • Air Traffic Controller Staffing Levels and Budgeting • Airport and Capacity Planning • NAS Development (Capital Investment Analysis, etc..) • NextGen modeling and planning http://aspm.faa.gov/main/taf.asp

3. TAF Development • Preparation of TAF is a year-long process • APO-100 uses several different methodologies to prepare the airport forecasts in the Terminal Area Forecast. The airports are grouped into the following categories: • OEP (35 OEP airports) • Second Tier (roughly the remaining top 100 airports in terms of enplanements) • Other FAA and Contract Towers • Non FAA facilities

4. TAF Development – Forecast Inputs • Historic Activity • Enplanements, Operations, Based Aircraft • Socioeconomic Data • Income, Population, Employment • Cost of Flying • Yield, Fare • Operational Factors • Seats per aircraft, Load Factors, Operations/Based Aircraft

5. Aviation Forecasts • Airport sponsors generate aviation activity forecasts for use in defining scope and timing of airport development • FAA is concerned with sponsor forecasts when used in FAA decision making, including: • Key environmental issues (determination of Purpose and Need, noise, air quality, and land use analyses in an EA or EIS) • Initial financial decisions including issuance of an LOI (Letter of Intent) and calculation of a BCA (Benefit Cost Analysis) • Noise compatibility planning (Part 150) • Approval of development on an airport layout plan (ALP)

6. FAA Review of Sponsor Forecasts • Forecast approval always rests with FAA Airport District Office (ADO) / Regional Office. FAA Headquarters may, however, review and provide recommendations. • Items that FAA looks for during review… • Forecast based on latest available data • Realistic assumptions • Appropriate methodologies • Forecasts provide justification for planning and development recommendations • Forecasts are consistent the FAA Terminal Area Forecast

7. Comparison with TAF • For all classes of airports, forecasts for total enplanements, based aircraft, and total operations are considered consistent with the TAF when the meet the following criterion: • Forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the five-year forecast period • Forecasts differ by less than 15 percent in the ten-year forecast period • If the forecast is not consistent with the TAF, differences must be resolved if the forecast is to be used in FAA decision making • Latest Guidance: “Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts, June 2008”

8. FAA HQ Review • Forecasts that require FAA Headquarters review are: • Those inconsistent with the TAF, OR • Forecasts for projects that are expected to require an EIS and/or BCA, even if the forecasts are consistent with the TAF. • Exception- FAA Headquarters review is not required for forecasts at non-towered general aviation and reliever airports where: • Five and ten-year forecasts do not exceed 200 based aircraft or 200,000 total annual operations, AND • The related development is not expected to require an EIS and/or BCA

9. FAA HQ Review • HQ Review • May take up to 45 days and require coordination with APO-100, if necessary. • Common Issues: • Fiscal Year vs. Calendar Year • Non revenue passengers and military charter passengers excluded from TAF • New service unknown to APO-100 • Letters of support/other documentation • Goal: thorough sponsor forecast consistent with TAF (10%/15%)

10. Resources and Guidance