A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

1. 19 A Macroeconomic Theoryof the Open Economy

2. Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds • The market for loanable funds • In an open economy • S = I + NCO • Saving = Domestic investment + Net capital outflow • Supply of loanable funds • From national saving (S) • Demand for loanable funds • From domestic investment (I) • And net capital outflow (NCO)

3. Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds • The market for loanable funds • Loanable funds - interpreted as • Domestically generated flow of resources available for capital accumulation • Purchase of a capital asset • Adds to the demand for loanable funds • Asset – located at home: I • Asset – located abroad: NCO • If NCO > 0, net outflow of capital - adds to demand • If NCO < 0, net inflow of capital - reduce the demand

4. Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds • The market for loanable funds • Higher real interest rate • Encourages people to save • Increases quantity of loanable funds supplied • Discourages investment • Decreases quantity of loanable funds demanded • Discourages Americans from buying foreign assets • Reduces U.S. net capital outflow • Encourages foreigners to buy U.S. assets • Reduces U.S. net capital outflow

5. Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds • The market for loanable funds • Supply of loanable funds • Slopes upward • Demand of loanable funds • Slopes downward • At equilibrium interest rate • Amount that people want to save • Exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net capital outflow

6. 1 The market for loanable funds Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Equilibrium real interest rate Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Quantity of Loanable Funds Equilibrium quantity The interest rate in an open economy, as in a closed economy, is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. National saving is the source of the supply of loanable funds. Domestic investment and net capital outflow are the sources of the demand for loanable funds. At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the amount that people want to borrow for the purpose of buying domestic capital and foreign assets.

7. Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange • Identity: NCO = NX • Net capital outflow = Net exports • If trade surplus, NX > 0 • Foreigners - buy more U.S. goods & services • Than Americans - buy foreign goods & services • Americans – use foreign currency • Buy foreign assets • Capital is flowing abroad, NCO > 0

8. Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange • If trade deficit, NX < 0 • Americans - buy more foreign goods & services • Than foreigners - buy U.S. goods & services • Some of this spending • Financed by selling American assets abroad • Foreign capital is flowing into U.S. • NCO < 0

9. Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange • Supply of foreign-currency exchange • Net capital outflow • Quantity of dollars supplied - buy foreign assets • Supply curve – vertical • Quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow • Does not depend on the real exchange rate

10. Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange • Demand for foreign-currency exchange • Net exports • Quantity of dollars demanded – buy U.S. net exports of goods and services • Demand curve - downward sloping • A higher real exchange rate • Makes U.S. goods more expensive • Reduces the quantity of dollars demanded to buy those goods

11. Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange • Equilibrium real exchange rate • Demand for dollars • By foreigners • Arising from U.S. net exports of goods & services • Exactly balances supply of dollars • From Americans • Arising from U.S. net capital outflow

12. 2 The market for foreign-currency exchange Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars (for net exports) Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency Equilibrium quantity The real exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for foreign-currency exchange. The supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency comes from net capital outflow. Because net capital outflow does not depend on the real exchange rate, the supply curve is vertical. The demand for dollars comes from net exports. Because a lower real exchange rate stimulates net exports (and thus increases the quantity of dollars demanded to pay for these net exports), the demand curve is downward sloping. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the number of dollars people supply to buy foreign assets exactly balances the number of dollars people demand to buy net exports.

13. Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Net capital outflow: link between the two markets • Identities • Market for loanable funds: S = I + NCO • Market for foreign-currency exchange: NCO=NX • Net-capital-outflow curve • Link between • Market for loanable funds • Market for foreign-currency exchange

14. 3 How net capital outflow depends on the interest rate Real Interest Rate 0 Net capital outflow is negative Net capital outflow is positive Net Capital Outflow Because a higher domestic real interest rate makes domestic assets more attractive, it reduces net capital outflow. Note the position of zero on the horizontal axis: Net capital outflow can be positive or negative. A negative value of net capital outflow means that the economy is experiencing a net inflow of capital.

15. Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets • Market for loanable funds • Supply: national saving • Demand: domestic investment & net capital outflow • Equilibrium real interest rate, r • Net capital outflow • Slopes downward • Equilibrium interest rate, r

16. Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets • Market for foreign-currency exchange • Supply: net capital outflow • Demand: net exports • Equilibrium real exchange rate, E • Equilibrium real interest rate, r • Price of goods and services in the present • Relative to goods and services in the future • Equilibrium real exchange rate, E • Price of domestic goods and services • Relative to foreign goods and services

17. Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets • E and r - adjust simultaneously • To balance supply and demand • In both markets • Loanable funds • Foreign-currency exchange • Determine • National saving • Domestic investment • Net capital outflow • Net exports

18. 4 The real equilibrium in an open economy (b) Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Supply Real Exchange Rate Supply E1 r1 r1 Net capital outflow, NCO Demand Demand Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net capital outflow In panel (a), the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the real interest rate. In panel (b), the interest rate determines net capital outflow, which provides the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. In panel (c), the supply and demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange determine the real exchange rate. (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

19. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Government budget deficits • Negative public saving • Reduces national saving • Reduces supply of loanable funds • Increase in interest rate • Reduces net capital outflow • Crowd-out domestic investment • Decrease in supply of foreign-currency exchange • Exchange rate appreciates • Net exports fall • Push the trade balance toward deficit

20. 5 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency . . . The effects of a government budget deficit 3. . . . which in turn reduces net capital outflow. (b) Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds . . . 2. . . . which increases the real interest rate . . . Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate 5. . . . Which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. Real Exchange Rate S1 S2 S2 S1 A r2 B r1 E2 r1 r2 E1 Demand Demand NCO Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net capital outflow When the government runs a budget deficit, it reduces the supply of loanable funds from S1 to S2 in panel (a). The interest rate rises from r1 to r2 to balance the supply and demand for loanable funds. In panel (b), the higher interest rate reduces net capital outflow. Reduced net capital outflow, in turn, reduces the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange from S1 to S2 in panel (c). This fall in the supply of dollars causes the real exchange rate to appreciate from E1 to E2. The appreciation of the exchange rate pushes the trade balance toward deficit. (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

21. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Trade policy • Government policy • Directly influences the quantity of goods and services • That a country imports or exports • Tariff • Tax on imports • Import quota • Limit on quantity of imports

22. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Trade policy • Macroeconomic impact of trade policy • Decrease imports • Increase in net exports • Increase in demand for foreign-currency exchange • Real exchange rate appreciates • Discourage exports • No change in real interest rate • No change in net capital outflow • No change in net exports

23. 6 The effects of an import quota (b) Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Real Exchange Rate Supply Supply E1 E2 r1 r1 D2 D1 Demand NCO Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net capital outflow When the U.S. government imposes a quota on the import of Japanese cars, nothing happens in the market for loanable funds in panel (a) or to net capital outflow in panel (b). The only effect is a rise in net exports (exports minus imports) for any given real exchange rate. As a result, the demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange rises, as shown by the shift from D1 to D2 in panel (c). This increase in the demand for dollars causes the value of the dollar to appreciate from E1 to E2. This appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce net exports, offsetting the direct effect of the import quota on the trade balance. 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars . . . 2. . . . And causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

24. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Trade policy • Macroeconomic impact of trade policy • Trade policies do not affect the U.S. trade balance • NX = NCO = S – I • Trade policies affect specific • Firms • Industries • Countries

25. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Political instability and capital flight • Political instability • Leads to capital flight • Capital flight • Large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country

26. How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy • Mexico - capital flight affects both markets • Investors • Sell Mexican assets & Buy U.S. assets • Net-capital-outflow curve – increases • Supply of pesos in the market for foreign-currency exchange – increases • Demand curve in the market for loanable funds – increases • Interest rate – increases • The peso – depreciates

27. 7 The effects of capital flight (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos . . . Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate 1. An increase in net capital outflow . . . Real Exchange Rate S1 S2 D2 Supply D1 3. . . . Which increases the interest rate. E1 E2 r1 r1 r2 r2 2. . . . increases the demand for loanable funds . . . 5. . . . which causes the peso to depreciate Demand NCO1 NCO2 Quantity of Pesos Quantity of Loanable Funds Net capital outflow If people decide that Mexico is a risky place to keep their savings, they will move their capital to safer havens such as the U.S., resulting in an increase in Mexican net capital outflow. The demand for loanable funds in Mexico rises from D1 to D2, as shown in panel (a), and this drives up the Mexican real interest rate from r1 to r2. Because net capital outflow is higher for any interest rate, that curve also shifts to the right from NCO1 to NCO2 in panel (b). At the same time, in the market for foreign-currency exchange, the supply of pesos rises from S1 to S2, as shown in panel (c). This increase in the supply of pesos causes the peso to depreciate from E1 to E2, so the peso becomes less valuable compared to other currencies. (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

28. Capital flows from China • Nation that experiences capital flight • Outflow of capital • Its currency weaken in foreign exchange markets • Depreciation • Increases the nation’s net exports • Nation that experiences inflow of capital • Its currency strengthen • Appreciation • Pushes its trade balance toward deficit

29. Capital flows from China • A nation’s government – policy: • Encourages capital to flow to another country • By making foreign investments itself • Effect? • Nation encouraging capital outflows • Weaker currency • Trade surplus • For the recipient of capital flows • Stronger currency • Trade deficit

30. Capital flows from China • Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China • China – tried to depress its currency (renminbi) in foreign exchange markets • Promote its export industries • Accumulate foreign assets • Including U.S. government bonds • In 2007: $1.5 trillion • Chinese goods - less expensive • Contributes to the U.S. trade deficit • Hurts American producers who make products that compete with imports from China

31. Capital flows from China • Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China • U.S. government • Encouraged China to stop influencing the exchange value of its currency • Impact of the Chinese policy on the U.S. economy • American consumers of Chinese imports • Benefit from lower prices • Inflow of capital from China • Lowers U.S. interest rates • Increases investment in the U.S. economy • Chinese government - financing U.S. economic growth

32. Capital flows from China • Chinese policy of investing in U.S. economy • Creates winners and losers among Americans • Net impact on U.S. economy - probably small • Motives behind the policy • China - wants to accumulate a reserve of foreign assets • National “rainy-day fund” • Misguided policy