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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

Guidelines for a SWFDP case study . Richard (Rick) Jones SWFDP Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting Bujumbura, Burundi, Nov 11-16 , 2013. Case Study. THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘’FUNSO’’ OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TANZANIA

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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

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  1. Guidelines for a SWFDP case study Richard (Rick) Jones SWFDP Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting Bujumbura, Burundi, Nov 11-16 , 2013

  2. Case Study • THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘’FUNSO’’ OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TANZANIA • A CASE STUDY OF HEAVY RAIN AT KILWA ON 17TH JANUARY, • CONCLUSION • During the 2011-2012 the south-west Indian Ocean got hit by several tropical disturbance • and tropical cyclone. One of them is the tropical cyclone “FUNSO”. It started as a low • pressure at around 150S of equator just off the coast of Mozambique along the Mozambique • Channel. • On 16th of January 2012 a surface low pressure cell developed in the Mozambique channel • and the convective cells were formed and get organised into intense rainband and then • developed to a Tropical cyclone “FUNSO”. The presence of upper level anticyclone provided • favourable conditions for development, together with weak directional wind shear and good • outflow. This configuration caused heavy precipitation at Kilwa station southern coast of • Tanzania • Apart from Tanzania, the impacts of tropical cyclone “FUNSO” was reported in several • countries along the southern Africa like Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa and Swaziland • where it caused floods, loss of lives and damage to properties. • Most of the global and regional models captured very well the heavy precipitation over • Kilwa and southern Tanzania as a whole, • Based on the satellite and surface observations, forecasters’ analysis, good performance of • the NWP models and RSMC Nairobi and RSMC Pretoria guidance products, the Tanzania • meteorological Agency forecasted very well the situation and actually it gave the heavy rain • Advisory to the public for the areas along the southern parts of Tanzania..

  3. Case study • TC-Funso • Conclusions? • Purpose? • Who would it be useful to? • Format: Body of text versus annexes

  4. Case study • Scientific or significant event study? • Why make a SWFDP case study?

  5. SWFDP case study Relate to SWFDP goals, • to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe weather events; • to improve the lead time of alerting of these events; • to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before and during events; • to identify gaps and areas for improvements; • to improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through feedback from NMCs.

  6. Who are the users? Users: • Colleagues • Colleagues from other offices; • Supervisors and administrators; • International users

  7. Before you begin… • What is the conclusion? Begin with the end in mind! • Gather facts, images, reports that support (or not) your conclusions • Write an outline with facts in point form Format: • Use explicit internet links and scientific notation for references

  8. Outline • Abstract • Introduction • Weather situation • Forecasts and warnings issued • Weather products used • Observation and impacts ? • Evaluation of the forecasts • Conclusion, recommendations

  9. Abstract • Summarize main facts and conclusions. • Reader should be drawn to read further

  10. Introduction • Why is this case study being considered; why is it important? • Are there others like it? • Is there a body of scientific knowledge that supports the phenomena • Tell the reader what they are about to read this will invite the reader to read further.

  11. Weather situation • Include maps and narrative describing the actual weather situation and the precursors; details in annexes • Describe forcing – eg. heating from below; local moisture sources; orography; tidal influences etc. • Eg. Tropical cyclones; • Extra-tropical lows; • Severe convective storms; • Flooding coastal and river • Sea-breeze; valley winds;

  12. Forecasts and warnings • Summarize forecasts and warnings issued keeping in mind issue time , onset time , valid time, area forecasted and intensity of the phenomenon • How was the forecast disseminated to the DMCPA, media? ; was there any interactions with them? • Details should be in the annex

  13. Weather products used • Supporting RSMC products used (eg. TC RSMC or SWFDP RSMC) • Supporting products from global and local NWP models used; • Details should be in the Annex

  14. Observations and Impacts • Observations that provide evidence of the phenomenon eg. Rain gauge; anemometer; boueys; thermometer; flow meter; human observation; photos • Supplement with remote sensing – satellite and radar Impacts: • Reports from emergency organizations; news reports? • Reports about damage due to the phenomena (eg. Wind damage flooding damage, etc.)

  15. Evaluation of the forecasts • Objective or subjective evaluation of the quality of the forecasts; • How good were they? • What are the problems? • Usefulness of the forecasts to the users

  16. Conclusions and recommendations • Main conclusions – can you conclude based on the evidence what you set out to conclude i.e. back in the introduction and mentioned in the Abstract)? • What further areas of study does this lead to? • Is this study applicable to other areas? • What should be changed if anything – products; procedures; formats?

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