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Additional technical measures, their reduction potential and costs

Additional technical measures, their reduction potential and costs. Based on a study by: Hugo Denier van der Gon, Maarten van het Bolscher & Antoon Visschedijk TNO Built Environment and Geosciences Presented by: Maarten van het Bolscher ,

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Additional technical measures, their reduction potential and costs

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  1. Additional technical measures, their reduction potential and costs Based on a study by: Hugo Denier van der Gon, Maarten van het Bolscher & Antoon Visschedijk TNO Built Environment and Geosciences Presented by: Maarten van het Bolscher, Netherlands Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  2. Contents • Output Phase I • Aims • Methodology • Selected Measures and Costs • Results • Country specific data • Conclusions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  3. Output of the project – Phase I - HM • For Cd, Pb, Hg + 6 other HM (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se and Zn) • For European UNECE Member States. • Emission inventory for 2000 (base year) • Projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 following two scenarios • Current Legislation and Current Ratification of HM protocol (CRHM) • Current Legislation and Full Implementation of HM protocol (FIHM) • Quantify emission reduction due to implementation of the HM Protocol • Preliminary list of possible measures to further reduce HM emissions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  4. Aims of the study • Select measures for a possible revision of the HM Protocol • Calculate emission reduction and associated costs in 2020 upon a possible revision of the HM protocol • Estimate costs of a possible revision of the HM Protocol Phase I + II • Provide input for predictive modeling of environmental distribution, exposure of ecosystems, source–receptor relationships Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  5. Methodology Phase II HM • Starting point: HM emissions in 2020 Full Implementation HM • Key source analysis of remaining emissions upon FIHM • Selection of sources for a possible revision of the HM Protocol • Select source-specific measures and their associated costs • Package 1 – dust control oriented (all HM) • Package 2 – gaseous emission control (more specific Hg) • Calculate emission reduction upon revision and quantify associated costs • Distribute emissions to make emission maps for modelling Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  6. Potential additional reduction measures for selected source sectors are summarized in the report e.g. Example of proposed measure for a HM source sector Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  7. Selected Measures and Costs Examples Package 1 Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  8. Selected Measures and Costs Examples Package 2 Note: Complete list of measures; see accompanying report Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  9. Results Phase II • Avoided emission by country, by measure for 2020 *) • Annual costs by country, by measure for 2020 *) • Here aggregated results for UNECE-Europe are presented and put in perspective to 2000, 2010 and 2020 emissions with current ratification (CR) and/or full implementation (FI) of the HM Protocol • *)Detailed breakdown available in annex, addendum and CD of the TNO report Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  10. Emission in UNECE Europe in 2020 before and after possible revision of the HM Protocol, achieved emission reductions and costs for package 1+2 Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  11. Emission in UNECE Europe in 2020 before and after possible revision of the HM Protocol package 1+2, achieved emission reductions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  12. Emissions 2000-2020 with different scenarios - 1 Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia. CR = current ratification; FI = full implementation; AM = additional measures

  13. Emissions 2000-2020 with different scenarios - 2 Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia. CR = current ratification; FI = full implementation; AM = additional measures

  14. Combined report The work of TNO, EMEP/MSC-E and the Coordination Centre on Effects (CCE) has been combined in the report: Heavy Metals Emissions, Depositions, Critical Loads Excedances in Europe. www.mnp.nl/cce Final conclusion is that the policy focus on the three priotrity metals Cd, Pb, and Hg is justified Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  15. Cd Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  16. Relative change HM emissions 1990-2020 with different scenarios (year 2000 = 100%) Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  17. Conclusions -1 • Total Costs of AM Package 1 (dust reduction) ~9 billion €/yr • mostly (85%) in Non-EU25+ • Note: costs will also be made in EU but are attributed to autonomous measures (e.g. IPPC) • Total Costs of AM Package 2 (Hg reduction) ~18.5 billion €/yr • equally distributed in EU25+ and non-EU25+ • Hg is not covered by autonomous measures; • Co-benefit of Package 2 may be reduction other gaseous pollutants e.g. PCDD/F • Co-benefit for PM is mostly by FIHM (~ 3.7 Mt TSP, 1.2 Mt PM10 and 0.28 Mt PM2.5). FIHM+AM has limited impact because (partly) focus on gaseous emissions. Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  18. Conclusions-2 • Additional Measures (AM) (~27,000 M€/yr) are expensive compared to the 1998 HM protocol (estimated at ~440 MECU (1995); Berdowski et al., 1998), but probably well below costs of implementation 2nd S Protocol (roughly estimated at ~ 50-60,000 M € ) • Full implementation of the 1998 HM Protocol brings about the biggest step in reduction of HM emissions; a possible revision of the HM protocol is a further improvement and should be seen in this perspective. Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  19. Thanks for your attention • More detailed country data available • Report available on www.tno.nl/HM_POP ? Questions ? Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  20. Sources not in the HM Protocol % HM UNECE-Europe 2020 after FI Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

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