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Yongyut Trisurat 1* and Risto Kalliola 2 1 Kasetsart University, Thailand

Assessing Conditions and Trends of Forest Ecosystem Services: Water Quantity and Quality (ECOHYDROLOGY). Yongyut Trisurat 1* and Risto Kalliola 2 1 Kasetsart University, Thailand Email: fforyyt@ku.ac.th 2 Turku University, Finland. UN/Belarus International Workshop.

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Yongyut Trisurat 1* and Risto Kalliola 2 1 Kasetsart University, Thailand

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  1. Assessing Conditions and Trends of Forest Ecosystem Services: Water Quantity and Quality (ECOHYDROLOGY) Yongyut Trisurat1* and Risto Kalliola2 1Kasetsart University, Thailand Email: fforyyt@ku.ac.th 2Turku University, Finland UN/Belarus International Workshop 11-15 November 2013 @ Belarusian State University Minsk, Belarus

  2. Belarus Introduction: Thailand 10 hrs Area: 513,115 km² Capital: Bangkok Location: 5° 37’ - 20° 27’ N Lat. 97° 22’ -105° 37’ E Long. Population: 65 mil. (BKK 10 mil.) GDP (Per Cap.): $5,394 Bangkok Phuket Moist evergreen F.

  3. Forest Covers & Protected Areas Development Logging banned Trisurat (2007)

  4. What are ecosystem services? “conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfill human life” • provision • regulate • support • culture

  5. ECOHYDROLOGY an interdisciplinary field studying the interactions between water and ecosystems: influence of vegetation on stream flow and feedbacks between ecological processes And hydrological cycle. William Nuttle, 2004 Consequences of deforestation

  6. Thadee Sub-watershed NakhonSrithammarat Prov. 1,835 m Water source for tap-water (~200 mil. m3) 112 km2

  7. Flooding and landslide are more severe and more visible! Dynamic Problems vsStatic Solutions 1989-2011

  8. Khao Luang NP Degraded from landslide; now regenerating ปาสมบูรณ์ 51.78 ป่าฟื้นฟู 15.56 สวนสมรม 14.11 ยางพารา 12.51 ไม้ผล 9.48 น้ำ 0.99 ที่อยู่ 4.46 อื่น ๆ 2.61

  9. Key Questions? LU Drivers • Subsistence to modernized living styles • Uncertainty of fruit prices • Rapid increase of rubber prices • Gov. policies & restriction • etc How much forest cover is enough to regulate water supply? How to enhance ecosystem services and where?:

  10. Stakeholder Consultations Park Advisor Com., TAO, Province Water Work., Irrigation Dept. NGOs, Local People, etc 2020 Land Use Scenarios Governor and Local Authorities support and commit present future Scientists provided facts and information.

  11. Land Use Scenarios 2020 Using CLUE-s Verburg et al (2002)

  12. Scenario 1: Development Forest cover: 43% (-30 ha/yr) Rehabilitation: -100 ha/yr (4%) Increase rubber plant.: 4% ann. (50-75 ha/yr) Fruit. 30-10 ha/yr Oth. LUC also increase

  13. WATER YIELD Water Balance - InVEST Transpiration Precipitation Evaporation Rain Leaf type Snow LULC type Seasonality Fog Yjx Root depth Inflow annual average water yield per pixel Water Availability Groundwater

  14. Budyko Curve (Budyko, 1974; Zhang et al., 2001) = (1) (3) (2) (4) Required P = precipitation AET = Evapotranspiration (monthly & annual) ET0 = potential evapotranspiration ET = transpiration for each LU/LC (P)AWC = plant water available content (soil texture) Soil charac. = texture & depth kxj = plant evap. coeff. x = ratio of plant water available to precipitation Rxj = Budyko dryness index

  15. Spatially Explicit Hydrology Model

  16. Annual Rainfall Statistic @ Tha Dee Watershed mm Worst case 3,838 3,138 2,821 2,757 Year (Jan-Dec) Climate change (www.WorldClim.org)

  17. Integrated LU and Rainfall Scenarios 2020 Water flow is not sig. different b/w forested and non-forested areas in downstream or flat area (Halmilton ang King, 1983; Hewlett, 1982).

  18. 335.6 mil m3 338.7 mil m3 Water yield (mm/m3) 335.4 mil m3 336.8 mil m3 Predicted water yield 2020 based on ann. Rainfall - extreme (3,838 mm) a) trend; b) development; c: local needs; and d: conservation

  19. ANOVA to assess significant differences between means of predicted water yield derived from different land use scenarios F-Distribution ( = 0.05); df3, dfres)

  20. Reliability? Average accuracy = 94.2%

  21. Soil erosion Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) A = R*K*LS*C*P A = average annual soil loss R = Rainfall erosivity factor K = soil erodibility factor LS = slope length C = cropping system P = cropping practice Wieschmeier & Smith (1978, Renard et al. (1997)

  22. Estimated on-site sediment (ton) Base line = 335,545 ton/yr

  23. Baseline 2009 335,545 ton/yr

  24. Ext. Rainfall & Trends 2020 Ext. Rainfall & Devl. 2020 514,447 ton/yr 813,294 ton/yr Ext. Rainfall & Local Needs 2020 Ext. Rainfall & Conserv. 2020 533,386 ton/yr 491,436 ton/yr

  25. On-site Erosion vs Delivered Sediment/Nutrient SDY = SY/E SDY = Sediment delivery ratio SY = Sediment yield (ton) E = Gross erosion (ton) Gross Erosion (ton/yrs) - E Monthly sampling Develop.. Consev. Baseline Sediment Yield (ton/yrs) - SY Laboratory analysis to estimate nutrient Lim et al (2005)

  26. What Next! Apply for Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) Recognition & Demonstration LU & CC Capture $ Cork et al (2001)

  27. Acknowledgements Thank You for Your Attention!

  28. Conclusions • Current LU 2009 – 46% • development scenario – 43% • trend or BAU – 56% • local needs scenario – 56% • conservation scenario- 58% • Water yield 2009 – 165 mil m3 (168 mil m3) • 10 yr average rainfall: 222-225 mil m3 • extreme rainfall: 253-257 mil m3 • drought: 138-141 mil m3 • significantly different (entire ws & some sub-ws.) • On-site sediment • current 335,545 tons/yr • yr 2020: Devl. – highest; Cons. - lowest Application of Geo-informatics for PES

  29. 1,835 m 112 km2 ต.กะโลน ต.เขาแก้ว ต.ท่าดี ต.ปากนคร ต.กำแพงเซา 60 m 13 sub-watersheds Water source for tap-water (~200 mil. m3)

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