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Climate Change and Electricity Business as usual or time for change?

Climate Change and Electricity Business as usual or time for change?. Open Arctic Opportunity and Risk Professor Anthony H. Knap Director, Geochemical and Environmental Research Group, Texas A&M University College Station, Texas Director, Marine Insurance Solutions, Ltd.

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Climate Change and Electricity Business as usual or time for change?

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  1. Climate Change and Electricity Business as usual or time for change? Open Arctic Opportunity and Risk Professor Anthony H. Knap Director, Geochemical and Environmental Research Group, Texas A&M University College Station, Texas Director, Marine Insurance Solutions, Ltd. Houston, September 21, 2014

  2. IPCC 5th Assessment Chapter 3

  3. Tom and Jill’s comments The pace of change in the Artic is unprecedented and highly uncertain. Rising temperatures and Open sea areas are more prevalent with yearly changes in summer sea ice. Impacts of an open Arctic will be felt everywhere as the change in the planetary heat balance will be severely affected.

  4. Arctic Issues Large opportunity for investment especially in Oil, Gas, Mining and Shipping. However strong regulatory frameworks and sincere corporate stewardship is required. There are significant gaps in our knowledge as indicated by the previous speakers – how do we close these gaps ? Artic environment is unpredictable. We have a fairly poor environmental baseline to detect human influence. All activities in the Artic from mining to energy to shipping will intersect. Oil spills are likely to be more environmentally challenging as will soot and albedo changes due to colder temperatures and reduction of reflective ice and snow. Changing means will change the extremes ! What does this have to do with Shipping and how will the industry be affected? Difference between external environmental conditions versus regulatory environment?

  5. Arctic Issues Politics of the Artic will create problems. Too many jurisdictions with contentious issues from local to regional to global. Tribal regions where we have learned can have major issues. Need an overarching structure for governance of the whole area. Canada, US, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Russia.. Risk management is incredibly important and difficult and basically what do you as mainly insurers need to know to make sound decisions. An Artic oil spill for example just must not happen. http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/Files/News%20and%20Insight/360%20Risk%20Insight/Arctic_Risk_Report_webview.pdf

  6. Arctic Populations will influence policy

  7. Importance of Arctic Conditions on the Globe Reflectivity of Albedo (Tom’s talk),Opening of specific seas (Jill’s talk) Changing atmospheric circulation Changes to Ocean Circulation – large input of freshwater affecting the “Conveyor Belt “ Warming Arctic – warming soil and ocean and release of gases which were trapped in the Permafrost. Many have greater GHC potential such as methane.

  8. Jet Stream over the US 2013 – probably more questions than answers

  9. Decline in sea ice volume (Polar Science Center)

  10. Arctic Thermohaline Circulation

  11. Sea routes for shipping

  12. Modeled Arctic air temperature (ACIA)

  13. Climate Change and Electricity Business as usual or time for change? The Big Question ? What information do you want and to what confidence level do you need to make decisions on your activities in the Artic given the high degree of changing environmental conditions ?

  14. Cycling of Carbon in the Arctic

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