SUICIDE ATTACKS BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS Using Intelligence for Prevention

1. SUICIDE ATTACKS BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTSUsing Intelligence for Prevention Dr. David L. Carter Michigan State University

2. Perspective—Suicide Attacks 1983 Hezbollah in Lebanon Mid 1980s – 2001 "Tamil Tigers” over 200 attacks before the 2001 1993 – 2000 around 200 suicide attacks in Israel by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and PFLP 1995 Egyptian Jihad – attacks in Croatia and Karachi, Pakistan 1998 al-Qaida two simultaneous suicide attacks against U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killing 252 people and injuring more than 5,000 2000 Chechen militants fighting against the Russian army joined the circle of suicide bombers To date, Chechen suicide attackers have committed an untold number of attacks, in which scores have been wounded and killed 2000, a suicide attack believed to have been orchestrated by al-Qaida, used a skiff to pull alongside the destroyer USS Cole, docked in Aden, Yemen 2001 on U.S. soil in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania

3. Perspective A suicide attack is often viewed as a terrorist wearing an explosives-laden vest, detonating it in a crowded place Remember: 9/11 was a series of coordinated suicide attacks Hence vest bombs are not the only suicide attack method

4. Goals of this Presentation Provide perspective whysuicide attacks occur Provide insight on themotivations and thoughtprocesses related tosuicide attacks Examine trends insuicide attacks, includingthe probability of futuresuch attacks on the U.S. Provide a model on howsuch attacks can be prevented through intelligence

5. Perspective: The Suicide Methodology Suicide attacks – an intentional strategy to accomplish terrorists’ goals Not a product of… Lone radicals or The mentally ill Challenge: Move beyond “western logic” to understand these attacks

6. Motivations for Suicide Attacks First: Motivation of the individual The individual demonstrates a commitment to his/her religious beliefs Shows commitment to the “holy war” by giving up his/her life Seeks a personal reward and/or seeks salvation in exchange for performing the attack Second: Motivation by the terrorist organization that receives both tactical and strategic benefit from the attacks Careful balance of the terrorist organization’s need and use of the attack intertwined with the largely religious motivation of the individual to voluntarily be a suicide attacker that makes such acts successful

7. Individual Motivations An afterlife that is flush with those things that are missing in their home on earth e.g., plenty of water, lush plant life, and peace Martyrs may bring seventy people to this lush afterlife Hence the act is ensuring a place of eternal serenity for their family and friends. Many of the suicide attackers are single males who believe they will be married in the afterlife to one of the seventy-two women they will receive as a reward for martyrdom Each of these women will remain forever young and forever virgin There have been a number of cases where the family of the attacker will hold a wedding reception in order to celebrate the marriage after the suicide attack

8. Individual Motivations Other reasons… Some suicide attackers – notably women – commit act as reparation for dishonor, such as committing adultery Identifying and using such women has been a rational decision by terrorist leaders Viewed as a way to surprise law enforcement and intelligence community

9. Individual Motivations Other reasons… Family may receive money aspayment for the attack Hamas followers know they willhave to give something to“the cause” in order for their group’s goals to be met This includes volunteering as a suicide attacker Often viewed as being prestigious to be selected for such an important assignment in the “struggle with the kuffar”

10. Individual Motivations-Martyrdom Jihad essentially means a religious struggle, whether it is by an individual who is struggling with a personal temptation or at a group level to overcome injustice Islamic extremists, interpret the actions of Israel and the United States to be threats to the sanctity of Islam justifying jihad If a Muslim gives his/her life in support of the jihad, that person becomes a shahid (martyr) Receives salvation Also a source of pride

11. Individual Motivations-Martyrdom Excerpt from article in Al-Khansaa published by Al Qa'ida's Arabian Peninsula Women's Information Bureau - calls on women to participate in jihad. One writer stated, in part: We stand shoulder to shoulder with our men, supporting them, helping them, and backing them up. We educate their sons and we prepare ourselves. We will stand covered by our veils and wrapped in our robes, weapons in hand, our children in our laps, with the Koran … directing and guiding us. The blood of our husbands and the body parts of our children are the sacrifice by means of which we draw closer to Allah, (emphasis added) …

12. Individual Motivations-Martyrdom Being a shahid is considered an honor to the individual and the family Palestinian children are socialized about this from an early age Martyrdom is glorified – it is viewed as something to strive for It also has the support by many parents Children are urged to be shahid

13. Individual Motivations-Martyrdom In sum, reasons for individual motivations: Martyrdom Redemption Salvation A better life for Oneself One’s family Appears to have become aself-perpetuating subcultureof martyrdom

14. Motivation of the Terrorist Group For suicide attack to be successful, the terrorist organization is crucial for Planning Acquiring weaponry Choosing operatives Targeting Executing the attack Remember, suicide attacks are viewed as a strategic weapon by terrorist organizations

15. Motivation of the Terrorist Group-1 It is difficult for the government to develop a strategic response to a suicide attack Traditional counterterrorism approaches – target hardening or interdiction of operations – will not work Virtually no “intelligence chatter” No overall doctrine or “order of battle” The attacks are unpredictable

16. Motivation of the Terrorist Group-2 Suicide attacks generally result in a larger number of casualties than do other types of attacks This increases… Physical effects of attack (loss of life and destruction) Psychological damage to the target

17. Motivation of the Terrorist Group-3 Suicide attacks usually attract more publicity than do other types of attacks Suicide attacks tend to focus on soft targets Large number of victims ensures public attention The attacker is part of the story

18. Motivation of the Terrorist Group-4 The use of suicide attacks maximizes the effect of the bombing If there is no need to provide anescape route for the attacker, thecomplexity of the plan is greatlyreduced Suicide attackers can often get closer to the target at the desired time than can other attack methods The person is a “thinking platform” that can negotiate obstacles, change locations as needed, focus on and get near specific targets to maximize damage, and precisely detonate at the point to maximize casualties

19. Motivation of the Terrorist Group-5 Suicide attacks can be especiallyintimidating for the target population Given the nature of the attack itselfand the character of soft targets, itis a “force multiplier” with respect tothe psychological effect it has Remember: Those who advocate suicide attacks and those who commit the attacks believe that these actions are morally justified for the greater good of Islam

20. Suicide Attack Trends 1990-2000 Israel experienced 35 suicide attacks Since the al-Aqsa Intifada in September 2000 through March 2004, there were 256 suicide attacks in Israel Nearly a third of these attacks (31.6%) were against “soft targets” Difficult to defend Virtually impossible to forecast Soft target is a force multiplier

21. Suicide Attack Trends We have made good progress in protecting critical infrastructure – what about soft targets? The words of an al-Qaida sympathizer a year after the 9/11 attacks resonate a chilling warning:“We are proving the kuffar [infidels] in Washington wrong. They said al-Qaida would be finished. But we are emerging stronger and will hit America's shopping malls, stadiums and kindergartens. This is our promise.” Saudi refugee, Jamal Waheeb in USA Today, September 9, 2002 June 14, 2004 the U.S. Department of Justice indictedNuradin M. Abdi for providing material support toal-Qaida which included the alledged intent to detonatea bomb at a shopping mall in the Columbus, Ohio area.

22. Suicide Attack Trends July 14-September 19, 2004, there were thirty suicide attacks reported in the international news media These attacks reported 352 people killed and 904 injured An average of 5.3 people killed and 13.5 people injured each day by suicide attacks during this period. Since September 11, 2001, suicide attacks have been reported on every continent except Antarctica At least twelve different terrorists’ groupsclaiming responsibility All of these groups represent Islamicextremism

23. Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S. In the eyes of terrorist organizations, suicide attacks have been “successes” U.S. is a stated target of Islamic extremists It is reasonable to conclude that the U.S. will again be targeted by suicide attacks, based on several factors…

24. Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S. The U.S. was the victim of a massive suicide attack on September 11, 2001 Terrorists’ organizations view suicide attacks as effective because of the ability to maximize target penetration and kill more people The nature of the suicide attack feeds media coverage, and consequently magnifies the fear of terrorism (e.g., a “force multiplier”) In the last four years, suicide attacks have been used in an ever-widening international circle on every continent except Antarctica The wide use of the Internet by Islamic extremists for all types of purposes, includes significant support for suicide attacks. In turn, this fuels the “celebrity” of martyrdom for deeply religious, anti-west impressionable young Muslims

25. Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S. The United States is replete with soft targets that have virtually no security whatsoever The types of targets preferred by terrorists’ organizations that use suicide attacks Suicide attacks have largely become the attack methodology de jeur among Islamic extremist groups As demonstrated by the large number of suicide attacks that have occurred in recent years – many times with multiple suicide attacks in one day – there appears to be a robust number of individuals who will volunteer to be a suicide attacker

26. Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S. Islamic radicals have unequivocally stated the desire to strike in the U.S. The increased suicide attacks by Islamic radicals since 9/11 The intense hatred directed toward the U.S. by these extremists, Collectively, it is logical to assume that future assaults on U.S. targets will include suicide attacks

27. Character of Suicide Attacks Two types of pre-attack indicators Indicators of an imminent attack The attacker is “armed” and in route to the target Indicators of attack planning Since 10/1/ 2000 over 400 terrorist attacks prevented in Israel

28. Character of Suicide Attacks Key element in prevention is intelligence Raw information is needed Type of information needed must be communicated to Police officers Community members Will help them know What is “suspicious” What to report Understanding attack methodology is essential

29. Character of Suicide Attacks Behavioral indicators of suicide attacks take two forms: Religious rituals as part of the path to shahada (martyrdom) Strategic activities designed to help facilitate the attack

30. Behavioral Indicators - Martyrs For the glory of shahada (to achieve martyrdom) preparations include: The payment of all debts and resolving all financial issues Closing bank accounts Contacting family and friends to “close loose ends” and tell them goodbye Contacting people for whom the attacker has had a conflict or disagreement and asking forgiveness for the trespass Giving away possessions A significant increase in meditation and prayer Taking showers or bathing several times for cleansing

31. Behavioral Indicators - Strategic New clothes with a secular, western appearance (including women) Freshly cut short hair Clean shaven Dark glasses Typically quiet and introverted Focused on the objective Demographic factors--Israel… 64% of the suicide attackers were under the age of 23 84% were single 98% were male Tended to be college educated Typically from middle class or higher families Devout Muslims The youngest suicide attacker was 10 years old.

32. Types of Suicide Attacks Attacker wears a self-actuated bomb as a vest or belt Vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VB-IED) driven by attacker An aggressive assault in an open area using firearms and grenades against intended targets until the attacker is killed by police or military Use of an airplane or other inherently destructive vehicle (such as a gasoline tanker truck) as the instrument of the attack

33. Planner: Leader who designates an attack including the general location, targets and timing Bomb maker: Secures raw materials; constructs bomb and detonation mechanism. Locater: Identifies suicide candidate; recommends candidate to the Planner; solicits candidate upon approval of Planner Spokesperson. Claims responsibility along with a statement of the purpose of the attack Provides photographs and/or video of attack to media Transportation companion. Transports attacker to the location Provides continued reinforcement of the moral responsibility the attacker Suicide Attack Team Members

34. Working With the Muslim Community American Muslim Public Affairs Council, states:“Present clear, unambiguous suggestions to citizens who want to assist in law enforcement efforts. The public needs to understand more clearly what it means to be vigilant and itneeds clear directives on how toreport suspicious behavior. Federaland local agencies must providespecific tips on recognizing criminalbehavior while discouraging hoaxesand vigilantism. These guidelinesmust be easily accessible on hardcopy as well as on the web .”

35. Working With the Muslim Community ODP Guidelines for Homeland Security, state: Provide examples and materials that may aid the recognition of terrorism to community policing contacts in order to make members of the community aware of those actions, behaviors and events that constitute “suspicious”. Ensure that members of the community areaware of the means of and processes forrelaying observed data to police officers andpolice organizations, just as they are, orshould be, aware of methods to relayinformation to Community Policing officers. Encourage prevention, proactive policing,and close working relationships between thepolice and the community

36. Working With the Muslim Community Examples of success: “Operation Rainbow” of the London Metropolitan Police, Counterterrorism Division Community Patrols of the Israeli Police

37. CASE STUDY:Suicide Attacks – Istanbul (Nov 2003) Four suicide attacks in four days in Istanbul, Turkey The attacks by al-Qaida were coordinated Targets represented Israel and the West

38. Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003)

39. Confiscated in the Investigation 5 Kaleschnikov AK-47 rifles with (9) magazines 1117 BULLETS FOR AK-47 3 - 7.65 mm hand guns with (29) bullets 2 Pen Guns 2 Shotguns and ammunition 800 Pounds Hexa Methylene Tetramine (Main Chemical Ingredient for the explosives) 150 Pounds Penta Eritritol-M (Chemical Ingredient for explosives) 150 Pounds Sodium Carbonate (Chemical Ingredient for explosives) Different types of acids as chemical ingredient for the explosives Laboratory equipment to handle the chemical materials, 700 feet electric cable to wire the explosives 16 sticks of TNT, (19) Dynamite Capsules, (80) feet fuse 2 Fog Bombs 22 hand radios for communication Forged documents, passports, drivers’ licenses and other types of forged identification 89 large detergent barrels as camouflage

40. Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003) 294 people were arrested who had some knowledge of the plan 48 of these were “hard core” terrorists Implications: The vast amount of materiel – people would have observed If this many people were identified who knew about the terror attack, there were many more out there who had knowledge or saw suspicious behavior Educate people what to look for as signs of terrorism Establish mechanisms for them to communicate their suspicions OBSERVE ---------- DOCUMENT ---------- REPORT

41. New Insights on Terrorists Research from Turkish National Police Over 1,000 terrorists interviewed 30% influenced to join by family members 33% influenced to join by friends These 63% did not join for ideological reasons Most wanted to leave the terror organization, but did not because of fear of retribution Implications: You can get informants You can get intelligence

42. Lessons Learned From Istanbul(From the Turkish National Police) Terrorist organizations need money for their activities, thus intelligence and counterterrorism activities should have a financial investigations component. Simple chemical substances may be used in the attacks that are provided easily from legitimate sources. Terrorists will use false documents while preparing their attacks. The potential targets must be protected properly and security staff must be trained against the terror attacks accordingly. Terrorists have good technological and communications skills, including mobile phones, radios, and Internet. Publications and web sites of the terror organizations must be followed. Intelligence is essential for prevention and investigation.

43. Next Steps Have an intelligence capacity in the agency Develop a solid, trusting relationship with the Muslim community Educate officer and citizens about signs and symbols of: Shahid and strategic behaviorsrelated to suicide attacks Suicide team members Teach citizens: What is suspicious behavior How to observe How to report suspiciousbehavior

44. QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS