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Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy implications

Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy implications. Dr Guy Howard, DFID Dr Jamie Bartram, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Introduction. Water and sanitation provision in the future must be resilient to climate change But:

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Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy implications

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  1. Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy implications Dr Guy Howard, DFID Dr Jamie Bartram, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. Introduction • Water and sanitation provision in the future must be resilient to climate change • But: • What factors contribute to the vulnerability of W&S technologies to climate change? • What adaptations can be made to W&S to increase resilience to climate change? • What are the policy implications?

  3. DfID-WHO Vision 2030 study • DFID and WHO jointly commissioned study into watsan technology resilience to climate change • Decadal forecasts for rainfall 2020 and 2030 by Hadley Centre (average and heavy 5-day events) • Review of technology resilience by Uni Surrey • Forward projections of coverage (total, urban, rural, and by technology)

  4. Example map: Annual average rainfall 2020

  5. Water supply and sanitation 2020 • Data collected for the 2008 JMP report disaggregated into individual improved technologies. Rural and urban coverage calculated • Projections made to 2020 for rural and urban coverage. • Projections for each technology normalised to ensure overall coverage did not exceed 100%. • Projections represented graphically.

  6. Water supply coverage 2020

  7. Sanitation coverage 2020 Insert image

  8. Climate resilience of watsan technologies Three methods used to assess the resilience of technologies to climate change: • Literature review • Interviews with W&S experts • Questionnaire survey • Results expressed as a series of vulnerability matrices

  9. Potential impact of climate change on sustainability of sanitation

  10. Potential impact of climate change on sustainability of water supply

  11. Policy implications • Utilities more resilient because of strong potential adaptive capacity • Only small number of technologies likely to have global application in future – others only regional or local - JMP criteria will need to change • At-house water supply desirable – but not necessarily through piped water

  12. Policy implications cont'd • WSPs provide framework for supporting adaptation - Risk-based approach covering source to cup • But will need to develop scenario-based planning • Need improved water resources management to support resilience

  13. Resilience – major findings • All technologies have some potential resilience • Actual resilience depends on local conditions and management • Larger utility systems higher potential resilience than small towns and community management

  14. Resilience of water supply technologies

  15. Resilience of sanitation technologies

  16. Policy issues:Centralise or decentralise? • Decentralisation will hedge drought and floods risks • BUT, management decentralisation has poor record of sustainability • More frequent flooding increases importance of avoiding critical points • Need to (re-)consider greater centralised management support

  17. Higher service levels and climate change • Post 2015 targets need greater ambition! • At-house piped water supply • Unclear how many such supplies be delivered via piped systems • Are alternatives (self-supply) viable?

  18. Monitoring needs to change

  19. Key Conclusions 1. Need climate-smart policy and planning 2. Need to translate potential resilience into actual resilience 3. Despite uncertainty, sufficient knowledge for policy and planning in most regions 4. Need to resolve key knowledge gaps 5. Adapting to climate change may provide opportunities to improve sector delivery

  20. Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy implications Dr Guy Howard, DFID Dr Jamie Bartram, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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