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Biomass for Energy – solution for agriculture and poverty

Kornelis Blok Ecofys / Utrecht University SID Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam 21 January 2008. Biomass for Energy – solution for agriculture and poverty. Energy use in a 450 ppm CO 2 -eq. stabilization scenario.

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Biomass for Energy – solution for agriculture and poverty

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  1. Kornelis Blok Ecofys / Utrecht University SID Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam 21 January 2008 Biomass for Energy – solution for agriculture and poverty

  2. Energy use in a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilization scenario Source: D.P. van Vuuren: Energy Systems and Climate Policy, Ph.D. Thesis, Utrecht University, 2007

  3. Present agicultual area High population growth Meat intensive diet Low agricultural intensity High demand for competing options (e.g. bio-materials, sinks). High demand for agricultural land High supply of residues Barely any potential (0) Present agricultual area Low popultion growth Meat extensive diet High agricultural intensity Low demand for competing options (e.g. bio-materials, sinks) Low demand for agricltural land Low supply of residues Very high potential (1100 EJ per year) Exploration of the ranges

  4. Scenario approach Material/economic A2 A1 Food trade: low Technology development: low Population 2100: 15.1 Billion GDP world 2100: 17.9 Billion $95 y -1 Food trade: maximal Technology development: high Population 2100: 7.1 Billion GDP world 2100: 86.2 Billion $95 y -1 Global Regional B1 B2 Food trade: very low Technology development: low Population: 2100: 10.4 Billion GDP world 2100: 27.7 Billion $95 y -1 Food trade: high Technology development: high Population: 2100: 7.1 Billion GDP world 2100: 53.9 Billion $95 y -1 Social/Environment

  5. Land-use pattern changes

  6. A1 2000

  7. A1 2010

  8. A1 2020

  9. A1 2030

  10. A1 2040

  11. A1 2050

  12. Geographical potential

  13. Bio-energy and local development

  14. Project in Mali(Kees Daey Ouwens) • 10,000 inhabitants; 1500 households • Jatropha 1000 ha • Pressing; oil storage • Tree Diesel engines, each 100 kW • New elecricity grid • fully self-supplying • it works; fully operational early 2008

  15. Suitable systems • Oil from seeds, e.g. Jatropha • Reforestation combined with charcoal production • Production of meat and biodiesel from fat • Anaerobic digestion • Improved woodstoves • Local production of ethanol from waste streams

  16. Sustainability of bio-energy? • Environment • soil • water • air • Biodiversity, preservation of HCV forests • Greenhouse gas emissions • Rights of local population, compatibility with national laws • Impact on food production and availability

  17. What to do? • Certification systems (for most sustainability issues) • FSC • RSPO • Monitoring of (regional or global) impacts on food production

  18. Displacement effects

  19. Conclusions • Bio-energy most likely is necessary for a sustainable energy system • The potential for bio-energy is substantial • Bio-energy contributes to local economic production • Certification and monitoring is necessary

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