1 / 48

What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?. Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University. Cattle Situation and Outlook. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006. Million Head. Cattle & Calves Inventory. Year.

hayley-ryan
Download Presentation

What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006? Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University

  2. Cattle Situation and Outlook

  3. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006 Million Head Cattle & Calves Inventory Year

  4. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006 Million Head Cattle & Calves Inventory 1949-58 1958-67 1967-79 1979-90 1990-04 Year

  5. Length of U.S. Cattle Cycles Million Head 1967-79 1958-67 2004-? 1979-90 1990-04 1949-58 Number of Years

  6. U.S. Cattle Inventory & Average Calf Price 1949-2006 Million Head Year

  7. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory,97.1 Million Head, Jan. 1, 2006

  8. U.S. Cattle & Calves, Jan. 1, 2005 & 2006

  9. Percent Change From A Year Ago In U.S. Inventory, Jan. 1, 2006

  10. Beef Replacement Heifers Jan 1, 1985-2006

  11. Heifers As A Percent Of Total Feedlot Placements, 1980-2005

  12. U. S. Beef Production, 1975-2006 * Estimated

  13. U.S. Average Cattle Carcass Weights, 1975-2005 Factors affect carcass weights include genetics, marketing technology, corn prices, grid pricing, fed cattle prices, breakeven prices, etc.

  14. U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Year, 1975-2005

  15. U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Size Group, 2005 982,510 U.S. cattle operations, 2005

  16. U.S. Cattle Operations & Inventory, Percent by Size Group, 2005 Cattle Operations Cattle Inventory

  17. Cattle Situation and Outlook Demand Situation

  18. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006

  19. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006

  20. U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Pounds, 1970-06

  21. U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Dollars, 1976-06

  22. Cattle Situation and Outlook Cost of Production

  23. U.S. Cow-Calf Cash Expenses, 1972-99 *1990-99 estimates were based on a revised methodology.

  24. Southeast Ammonium Nitrate Prices, 1970-06

  25. Stocker Gross Margin, Alabama, October-April, 400# -750#, 1979-2006 Gross margin is feeder sale value minus stocker purchase value. Based on steers, med. & lrg., No. 1, Oct. to Apr., 400 to 750 pounds.

  26. Monthly Feeding Cost of Gain700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas Source: KSU Cattle Return Series

  27. Cattle Situation and Outlook Market Prices

  28. Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006

  29. Annual U. S. Beef Production, 2000-06 *Estimated

  30. Annual U.S. Beef Production &Average Fed Beef Price, 2000-2006

  31. Quarterly U. S. Beef Production, 2004-06 *Estimated (2004 -> 24.5B, 2005 -> 24.7B, 2006 -> 25.9B*)

  32. Quarterly U. S. Beef Production & Average Fed Beef Price, 2004-2006 *Estimated

  33. 2006 Cattle Price Projections, $/Cwt. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.

  34. Cattle Situation and Outlook Profit Potential

  35. U.S. Cow - Calf Returns Over Cash Expenses, 1972-99 Source: USDA

  36. Average Annual Cow-Calf ReturnsOver Cash Expenses, 1980-2004 Source: Cattle-Fax

  37. Average Annual Stocker CattleReturns Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2006 Source: Cattle-Fax Includes winter and summer grazing programs.

  38. Monthly Returns for Finishing 700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas Source: KSU Cattle Return Sales

  39. Average Annual Cattle Feeding Returns, 1980-2004 Source: Cattle-Fax

  40. Cattle Situation and Outlook Summary Remarks

  41. Cattle Situation and Outlook Greed, Fear, and Weather

  42. Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006

  43. Projected Profit/Loss By Cattle Industry SegmentsDuring The Four Price Phases Of The Cattle Cycle* The information in this chart is generalized based on the price phase of the cattle cycle. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.

  44. What’s The Cattle Price OutlookFor 2006 Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University

More Related